The IMF pulls the brakes in Piazza Affari which reduces gains and closes just above par, +0,08% at 21.128 points. The Fise Mib had accelerated in the morning together with Europe in the wake of the confirmation of the accommodating policy in the USA and the first Tltro auction carried out today by the ECB (although disappointing in terms of the total amount requested). But in closing it suffered the backlash from the downward revision by the Washington organization of the 2014 GDP estimates released in the afternoon.
For the IMF The Italian economy will contract in 2014 by 0,1%, against a previous estimate of an increase of 0,3%. GDP will return to growth in 2015 (+1,1%), to then accelerate in 2016 to +1,3%. The Italian deficit-GDP ratio will settle at 2014% in 3,0, to then drop to 2,1% in 2015. The Fund, which still sees significant risks in the Italian debt, suggests the need for an adjustment with respect to the plans of the authorities by 0,5% of GDP, a correction of about 7,5-8 billion. In any case, the green light for the Renzi agenda comes from Washington.
The implementation of the reforms "is essential to create jobs, increase productivity and increase the growth potential" states the IMF which notes that "implementing the structural reforms simultaneously would generate significant growth synergies". The labor reform is in the right direction, as is the idea of a single contract. According to IMF estimates, the unemployment rate will rise this year to a post-war high, to 12,6% from 12,2% in 2013.
The other European Stock Exchanges closed in net positive territory: Paris +0,75%, Frankfurt +1,41%, Madrid +0,75%. London also rises +0,57% despite the expectation for the result of the vote on the referendum for the independence of Scotland which will be known tomorrow. In the early afternoon, the pound reached a two-year high against the euro at 78,53 pence against the euro. The euro-dollar exchange rate strengthened again and gained 0,39% to 1,2909. WTI oil dropped 0,36% to 94,08 dollars a barrel.
In the wake of the Fed's reassurances, Wall Street is euphoric, where both the Dow Jones and the S&P500 have reached new intraday records. On the macroeconomic front, there are conflicting signals. Initial jobless claims fell by 36 to 280 in the week ending Sept. 13. This is the largest drop in the last two years, going well beyond analysts' expectations of 305. The start of new building sites fell more than expected -14,4% while the estimates envisaged a more contained reduction of 5,5%. The decline follows a 15,7% rise in July.
While awaiting the Scottish result, the market for government bonds continues smoothly with Spain placing 3,6 billion euro over 3 years at a rate of 0,565%, up from 0,697% at the previous auction. The new rate marks a new record low. The Btp bund spread drops to 135,5 basis points.
This morning Maria Maria Cannata, head of the Treasury for debt management, explained that the placement of government bonds above par has already allowed the Treasury to reduce the nominal funding envisaged for 460 to 470 from 2014 billion. The final amount it could turn out to be further lower also thanks to lower-than-expected repayments of public debt. The Treasury is also open to a return to dollar issues in the event of a possible revival of interest in this segment thanks to less expansive policies by the Fed.
In Piazza Affari the best stock of the Ftse Mib is Stm which rises by 2,96%, followed by Autogrill +2,39%, Bpm +2,22%, Atlantia +1,43% and Finmeccanica +1,24%. At the bottom of the Ftse Mib Bper -3,53%, Cnh -2,31%, Mps -2,04%, Fiat -1,58%, Azimut -1,47%. Overall, Italian banks requested 23 billion in Tlter loans from the ECB out of a total of 82. But the amount requested throughout Europe has fallen short of expectations. For operators, the sector is awaiting the result of the Asset quality review and the stress tests.
