Awaiting the data on Chinese GDP for the third quarter, which will open the next financial week, Shanghai is about to close its best week since August: +5,5% in the last five sessions (+0,9% this morning). Shenzhen +7,8%. The rise in Chinese stock markets, accompanied by the good closure of Wall Street, favored the rise of the other markets. Tokyo climbs 1,5%.
The new trend of Chinese consumers emerges from the results of the US and European quarterly reports: due to sales in China, Unilever (+8,2%) and Nike (+2,3%), luxury suffers (Burberry and Ferragamo fell sharply yesterday), but also Caterpillar, confirming the slowdown in investments in construction and infrastructure. Ji Xingping's policy (more consumption for the middle class, new development model) is bearing its first fruits.
Wall Street notes that the rate hike won't happen before December, more likely after. Both the Dow Jones index (+1,28%) and the S&P 500 +1,49% closed with strong gains at eight-week highs, as did the Nasdaq (+1,82%) enlivened by the biotech revival. Goldman Sachs rises in the final (+3%) despite disappointing results. The financials are driven by the excellent quarterly report by Citigroup, but the bull's push has spread over a large part of the list, starting with health stocks. Oil also rose: Brent +3,2%.
THE ECB GIVES A FIRST SHOCK TO THE STOCK EXCHANGES
European stock exchanges are already focusing on next week's ECB meeting. Milan closes the session with a large increase, the Ftse Mib index rises by 1,7%. The stock exchanges of Paris (+1,5%) and Frankfurt (+1,4%) were also positive. The euro weakens after five consecutive sessions of appreciation against the dollar, the exchange rate is 1,141 from 1,147 at the previous close.
Edwal Nowotny, the governor of the Bank of Austria and member of the Governing Council of the ECB, made a contribution to the turnaround. The banker said it was time to put in place "new tools" to enable the ECB to succeed in the fight to stimulate inflation.
STM SUPERSTAR, TELECOM HEADS TO METROWEB
In Milan, the best blue chip of the day was StM (+4,8%), in line with the performance of the Stoxx index of technology companies. Rumors have been circulating for a couple of days about the arrival of another wave of consolidation in the semiconductor industry to counter the weakness of the sector with M&A operations. The benchmark index climbs 1,5%, yesterday it gained 3,6%.
The German Infineon (+5,2%) is studying the acquisition of Fairchild Semi in turn hunting for prey. Meanwhile, after the sale of EMC to Dell, SanDisk, the manufacturer of hardware and software for data archiving, rises to the fore: +11% after the rumors of a possible marriage with Micron and Western Digital.
Telecom Italia was also in great evidence, rising by 3,8% on the eve of the Board meeting which should give a mandate to the management for a negotiation with Metroweb.
FCA SPEEDS ABOVE 14 DOLLARS. GROWING VOLUMES IN DERIVATIVES
The suffering of Volkswagen continues (-3,73%) which will have to collect and overhaul 8,5 million diesel cars in Europe. But the rest of the industry is on the upswing. Fiat Chrysler in particular advanced by 2,8%, returning above the threshold of 14 euros. From the lows of September, after the outbreak of the dieselgate, the share recovered 37%.
The volumes of derivatives on the March expiry also grew sharply, confirming the suspicion that the market already foresees surprises on the front of a merger, despite S&P having spoken out against a marriage with GM. In the meantime, the listing of Ferrari on Wall Street (the date of the debut in Milan is still uncertain): the big investors are arriving in Maranello for the final stage of the road show. Exor also sharply increased (+4,17%), while CNH lost 2,2%.
FINMECCANICA FLY, FINCANTIERI SINKS
In the Treasury team, Finmeccanica stands out, earning 2,5%: Thales Alenia Space, a joint venture in which the Italian group has 33%, could receive a large order from Saudi Arabia worth 2,5 billion.
The news serves only in part to console the Mef of the Fincantieri disaster (-13,55%) sunk by the profit warning of the subsidiary Vard, listed in Singapore, on the profits for the third quarter and for the whole of 2015 due to the difficulties in Brazil. Fincantieri also informed in a note that "to date no decision has been taken" regarding a possible capital increase, however very probable. Equita downgraded her stock to “hold” from “neutral” by removing it from its small cap portfolio.
LUXURY, BURBERRY (-8%) CONTACTS FERRAGAMO
Another sore point is luxury. Under fire Ferragamo (-3,5%), infected and by the bad results of Burberry, which plunged by 8% on the London Stock Exchange after releasing half-yearly data clearly below expectations due to the slowdown in sales in China, a country in which Ferragamo realizes 35% of its turnover. Equita has reduced the Eps estimates of the Florentine fashion house for 2015 and 2016 by 2% and 5% respectively and the target price to 27,2 from 29 euros.
Moncler -2,1%: Morgan Stanley has started hedging with an equal-weight rating and a target price of 15 euros. Tod's (-0,44%) and Yoox Nap (-0,24%) were also weak. On the other hand, Luxottica was positive (+1,71%).
MEDIOBANCA, EQUITA CONFIRMS THE BUY
Mediobanca stands out among the banking ones (+1,37%): Equita Sim confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price at 11,3 euro. Also the purchase of Popolari was highlighted: Banco Popolare +3,2%, Pop.Milano +2,1%, Ubi (which is no longer Popolare) +2,1%. Unicredit gained 1,7%, Intesa 1,4%.
SARAS BUSINESS PLAN EXALTS ANALYST
In the rest of the price list, the leap by Saras (+8,7%) after the presentation of the new business plan should be noted. In particular, the company has announced a group EBITDA for 2019 of around 730 million euros, well above market expectations. Very large positive change for Atlantia (+3,1%).
