According to the latest Istat update on foreign trade, the month of March 2025 marked a slight cyclical decline in theItalian export (-1,0%), compared to a substantial stationarity of imports (+0,2%). However, the trend and quarterly data describe a more encouraging scenario for the Italian economy.
In the first quarter of the year, exports grew by 4,6% compared to the previous quarter, while imports recorded an increase of 4,7%. On an annual basis, exports marked a +5,8% in value (+1,9% in volume), and imports +7,6% in value (+2,9% in volume), confirming a dynamic picture despite geopolitical and energy uncertainties.
Export, here are the strategic sectors
The growth of exports is supported by some strategic sectors of Made in Italy such as chemical-pharmaceutical (+ 59,8%), means of transport (+47,5%, excluding motor vehicles), basic metals and metal products (+8,1%), food&beverage e tobacco (+6,6%). In contrast, coke and refined petroleum products (-38,3%), motor vehicles (-8,8%), sporting goods, music, medicine and precious items (-15,7%).
The decline in exports in March is mainly linked to the contraction of capital goods (-2,8%) and durable consumer goods (-6,7%), while non-durable consumer goods are growing (+1,7%), supported above all by the agri-food sector.
On the import front, the limited growth (+0,2%) is the result of various dynamics including:
• consumer goods durable (+ 8,5%)
• consumer goods not durable (+ 11,4%)
• goods instrumental (+ 0,9%)
• energy (-19,8%)
The trade balance in March 2025 was positive for 3,66 billion euros, compared to 4,3 billion in the same month of the previous year. The energy deficit increased slightly (from -3,8 to -3,9 billion), while the surplus for non-energy goods decreased from 8,1 to 7,5 billion. Overall, the first quarter of 2025 closed with a trade surplus of 7,8 billion (from 12,8 billion).
If we look at the trading partners, the main contributions to cross-border sales come from Usa (+ 41,2%), Opec countries (+ 25,0%) and France (+ 4,2%), Türkiye in sharp decline (-30,1%) And China (-8,3%). It is interesting to note that the growth in exports to the United States is almost entirely attributable to the pharmaceutical and transport sectors. Net of these, Italian exports to the US would be down 4,1%.
Thus, despite recent geopolitical turbulence, the ability to operate beyond national borders continues to distinguish the most dynamic companies capable of adapting to different contexts. In this context, the study Potential exporters: identification, classification and analysis made by Guglielmo Tagliacarne Study Center in collaboration with La Sapienza, analyzes the profile of over 740.000 Italian companies that have been continuously active between 2015 and 2021. The goal? Identify companies that, despite not being habitual exporters, show characteristics similar to those that already operate successfully on foreign markets.
There are two categories of potential companies identified:
• aspiring exporters – they have not yet made sales abroad, but would have the structural conditions to do so
• emerging exporters – have exported sporadically and show a high probability of becoming regular or consolidated exporters.
The survey identified 17.028 potentially exporting companies. Of these:
• 5.601 are aspiring exporters (32,9%)
• 11.427 are emerging exporters (67,1%)
These are mostly small businesses, with a prevalence of micro-enterprises (97,5% have fewer than 10 employees) and artisan businesses.
The map of potential exporters
The geography of potential exporters confirms the Northern Italy, in particular Lombardy (20%), as the main reservoir ready to make the leap towards foreign countries. Followed by Veneto (11,4%), Tuscany (8,9%) and Emilia-Romagna (8,8%).
Among emerging exporters, of which 72,6% are micro-enterprises, the highest concentrations are found in Lombardia (27,4%), Veneto (11,3%), Emilia Romagna and Lombardy (8,8%), Piedmont (8,6%) and Toscana (8,6%).
From a sectoral point of view, potential exporters are mainly concentrated in Wholesale (33,5%) and car and motorcycle trade (18,9%). Emerging exporters, on the other hand, see retail trade (15,6%) after wholesale (23,2%), followed by metal products (7,2%) and food (4,1%).
