Exports continue to grow for the traditional industrial districts of Lombardy. This was revealed by the Lombardy District Monitor, with data updated to the third quarter of 2018, compiled by the Intesa Sanpaolo Studies and Research Department. According to the Monitor the data covering three quarters of last year still show growing exports in the region which produces a fifth of the national GDP (and which according to Assolombarda is showing signs of slowing down): the increase is by 3,1 % in trend terms, at current values, quantifiable in about 173 million euros of exports more than in the third quarter of 2017. The Lombard performance is confirmed as well above the national average (+1,4% in the July-September quarter). Furthermore, the result is added to the already positive result of the two previous quarters, for a growth equal to 4,9 % overall for the first nine months of 2018.
I mature markets, thanks to a trend increase of 6,7% in the third quarter, continue to represent the driving force behind the good results of exports from Lombardy: the contributions of European players are significant, above all Germany (+5,6%) and France (+ 7,9%), still at the top of the district ranking for export value; the United States reconfirmed itself among the most dynamic mature markets (+16%). In the July-September period, exports destined for emerging markets (-3%), however subject to greater volatility, due to the lower weight (equal to approximately 35%) which they hold on the total of regional district exports. The lackluster results are largely attributable to the Russian Federation (-11,8%) and Turkey (-7,2%), due to the crisis that has affected the two countries, and to the less dynamism of some countries of the 'Eastern European. On the other hand, China confirms its growth (+3,5%). Only the temporary recovery of exports that was observed in the second quarter allows the new markets to close the first nine months in substantial equilibrium with respect to 2017.
The analysis carried out at the level of individual districts shows thirteen realities (out of twenty-three of a traditional matrix monitored here) with exports in trend growth in the quarter July-September 2018 and ten with exports in decline, five more than the last edition, indicating that the positive performance in the summer months is actually less widespread within the aggregate. Between best performing districts, which are positioned in the top ten places of the regional ranking for export evolution in the third quarter, five metalworking realities emerge: Metalworking Arno Valley (+13,1%), Metalworker from Lower Mantua (+12,8%), Lumezzane taps, valves and cookware (+6,5%), Bresciano instrumental mechanics (+5,5%) e Metals of Brescia (+5,5%).
These are heterogeneous realities from the point of view of productive and geographical specialization. Cross-border sales of mechanics are very diversified, with a growing weight of new markets, even if the driving force of the main European players and the United States remains firm. Furthermore, it is a reality, the United States, which today is also fundamental for the metal districts. Despite the introduction of duties, the first signs of a decline in US exports are currently confined to the Varese district alone. Particularly dynamic, in the third quarter of 2018, also the export of Footwear from Vigevano (+12,5%)e Wood and furnishings from Brianza (+10,3%), driven more and more by the demand of the luxury markets (Switzerland, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia). Above-average growth also for exports of Val Seriana textile-clothing (+7,2%), Brescian wines and spirits (+5,9%), Sebino Bergamasco rubber (+5,1%).
The exports of technological poles, subject to greater volatility than those of traditional districts, recorded a trend increase of 7,1% in the third quarter of 2018, at current values, quantifiable in about 181 million euros of extra exports. The positive result is widespread in three of the four poles monitored. In particular, one was observed resumption of exports of the Varese aeronautical hub. Confirmations of moderate growth in exports came from the data of the ICT Polo of Milan and the Biomedical of Milan. The Lombardy pharmaceutical hub is an exception, where exports confirmed their decline for the second consecutive quarter.
