After a deterioration recorded at the end of the year, the euro area economy should stabilize in this first quarter and record the start of a better phase between April and June. “Moderate recovery on the horizon”, according to the usual joint forecasts on the currency union edited by Istat together with its French sister institute Insee and the hundred German studies Ifo. In the third quarter of 2012, GDP decreased by 0,1% and "it is expected to continue to contract even in the fourth", according to a statement.
An acceleration of the recession by at least 0,4%, "as anticipated by the low level of confidence recorded by surveys and by the sharp decline in industrial production in October". An unchanged trend is expected for the first quarter, with zero growth and after this "phase of stagnation", continues the note, "the second quarter will record a moderate recovery in GDP": +0,2% according to the three institutes.
The recovery was driven by the acceleration in world demand due to a greater dynamism of the emerging markets, together with the recent agreement on the "fiscal cliff" in the United States, which should limit possible negative effects on the recovery of the American economy.
