Energy, wind at a turning point: leap forward or relegation to Serie B

The energy produced from renewable sources is growing in the world, despite the edicts of US President Donald Trump. And Italy can go ahead with an absolutely advanced position compared to the average of the EU countries. But how long will this positioning last, how much did it cost and what will need to be done to keep the place acquired in the green Top 10? Hydroelectric, photovoltaic, biomass, wind: not all RES (renewable energy sources) are the same, nor do they need the same rules and support tools. This is being discussed in view of the SEN (National Energy Strategy) which, however, has not yet seen the light. Wind energy is at a turning point and the "World Wind Day", scheduled for 15 June, will serve to take stock of the sector that has arrived, in Italy, at the maturity of the first plants and projected towards a leap forward technology that will decree its advancement – ​​if the conditions are set for it to happen – or its downsizing if this does not happen. Let's see why. 
 
FER, SOME NUMBERS TO UNDERSTAND A GLOBAL TREND 
 
The new installed capacity in the world reached in 2015, the latest data available, the highest level ever recorded: over 150 GW (million Watt) in the year, mainly due to the development of wind power (63 GW) and photovoltaic (49 GW ). For the first time, renewable sources have surpassed coal in terms of accumulated electrical power and represented more than half of the total incremental power. The largest increases involved solar photovoltaic (30%) and wind (+41%) which, in terms of overall cumulative power, however represent 11,4% and 21,2% with hydroelectric occupying a large the first place is long (60%). An important and extremely positive fact, this growth has been matched by a strong reduction in generation costs, especially for wind and photovoltaic power. According to IEA (International Energy Agency) estimates, costs in these two segments could be further reduced respectively by 15% and 25% by 2021. But for this to happen, according to the experts, support policies are still needed, of technologies and growth of RES in new markets. According to the latest Focus of the Bnl Study Center on renewables, to achieve the objectives of last year's Paris Agreement, 44 trillion dollars should be allocated to the energy sector and, of these, 20% should be allocated to renewables .
 
In Italy, the gross energy requirement in 2016 amounted to 169 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), recording a contraction of 1,3% against an increase in GDP of 0,9%. A decline due not to the crisis which can actually be said to have started to fade but to the improved energy efficiency. Combined with the advance of RES, Italy's degree of dependence on foreign supply sources has decreased: again according to the latest BNL report, the share of national energy needs satisfied by net imports is still high (75,6% ) but lower by about 7 percentage points compared to 2010 when the country was traveling with a degree of dependence on foreign countries of over 80%. In 2016, Italy exceeded the target set by Europe for 2020 and has already reached the target of 17,6% of gross final consumption attributable to renewable sources, with an electricity production of almost 106 billion kilowatt hours (Twh). The sun contributed 22 Twh, the wind 17 Twh. 
 
Italy is in tenth place in Europe for the share of renewable energy in consumption and in sixth place (with Romania, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Croatia) with respect to the EU 2020 target. The new goal to conquer will be 27% renewables by 2030. 
 
RENEWABLES, HOW TO GROW AGAIN 
 
Further developing the sector, substantially helped in the past with the most generous incentives in Europe, is possible without unloading extra costs on the already much-harred Italian electricity bills. 
 
According to a recent study by Anev (the Association of leading wind power producers) wind energy has reached 9.250 Mw of installed power in Italy against the 12.680 Mw defined by the National Action Plan (Pan) by 2020. European 2030 objectives, implemented by Sen during the consultation, the wind potential should also rise to 17.150 Mw, of which 15.800 on shore. But the real risk, without adequate policies, is that the power installed today instead of increasing by almost 8 megawatts drops to 7.000 Mw, bringing Italy back almost 20 years. Even assuming that these are somewhat "dramatic" estimates, the fact remains that the 1.100 MW of new plants admitted to the latest incentives are not enough to make up for the potential closures of the blades that have reached the end of their life (20-25 years) and that re-empowered. Possible interventions but in front of which the operators ask for at least simplified procedures on the German model while in Italy the upgrades (today replacing a turbine allows you to triple the power thanks to technological progress) are linked to the same complex procedures envisaged for new plants. 
 
To make up for the accumulated delay, according to Anev they would be needed new competitive auctions for 700 MW per year for the missing four-year period 2017/2020. Again according to Anev calculations, the higher costs would reach 240 million in the period 2018-2030 but in the face of the higher expenditure, wind producers point out substantial benefits: savings of 6,6 billion on the price of energy (Pun) in the same period, an electricity production of 36,5 Twh by 2030, 25 million tons of CO2 avoided, 50 million barrels of oil saved as well as 67.000 national jobs between direct and related industries. Now we have to wait for Sen's verdict, but time is short and the decrees for the 2017 auctions have not yet been seen even if they have been promised by the government by the end of the year. Elections permitting.