High-voltage opening of the financial week. The front page shows the turnaround at the top of Saudi Arabia's oil policy: Minister Al Naimi leaves the leadership of the key country for the oil sector after 21 years. Khalid-al Falih, former president of Aramco, replaces him. A sudden and rude changing of the guard, without the customary thanks: will there be, the markets wonder, a change of course in Saudi strategy? Despite Al-Falih's reassurances ("our policy will not change") Brent prices rose this morning by 2,5% above 46 dollars, Wti +3%. But the fire that is ravaging the province of Alberta in Canada contributes to pushing prices up. Last week oil fell again: in five sessions Brent lost 1,5%, Wti -4,5%.
BAD TRADES IN BEIJING. THE BRAKING OF THE YEN PUSHES TOKYO
The Stock Exchanges are facing the slowdown of the global economy: the disappointing US employment data on Friday removed the last doubts about the now waning increase in US rates. Thus the dollar rises (the euro trades below 1,14 against the US currency) favoring the slowdown of the yen and a positive opening of Tokyo (+0,7%), returning from the Golden Week holiday. But the mood, on the eve of the quarterly season, is gloomy: in addition to the strong yen, the effects on industrial production of the earthquake that broke the production chain of Sony and of the other key groups in the electronics and auto components sector are contributing to fuel pessimism on the eve of the quarterly season.
Chinese import/export data for April confirmed on Sunday that Beijing's economy is once again limping: exports drop by 1,8%, imports by 10,9%. The recovery in March, stimulated by a shower of state stimuli, has not taken root. Shanghai (-2,2%) and Shenzhen (-2,9%) suffer. Hong Kong +0,5%.
MILAN STARTS AGAIN FROM -16,6%. IN VIEW OF POSITIVE OPENING
A positive opening is expected this morning for the European lists. Futures signal upside in Paris, London and Frankfurt. But the saying "sell in may" found timely confirmation in the first week of the month. On the Milan Stock Exchange, the FtseMib index lost 4,2% in five sessions. The year-to-date loss extends to -16,6%. Negative balance also for the other European equity markets: the Paris stock exchange lost 2,9% in five sessions, Frankfurt -1,6%, the overall index of the European stock exchanges Stoxx600 fell by 2,8%. Wall Street was also in the red: Dow Jones -0,2%, S&P -0,4%, Nasdaq -0,8%.
MARKET MOVERS: GREEK CRISIS, IMPEACHMENT IN BRAZIL, US CONSUMPTION
Spotlights again turned on the Greek situation. The extraordinary Eurogroup meeting on the aid program will take place in Athens this afternoon. Yesterday evening, after yet another dramatic session, Parliament approved the package of austerity measures presented by Alexis Tsipras: since Friday the country has been paralyzed by a wave of strikes. Cooling the optimism is a letter to the Eurogroup from Christine Lagarde, director general of the IMF, according to whom the Greek commitment to immediately formally define other preventive measures to be triggered in the event that Greece does not respect the budget targets.
Crucial stage, Wednesday, for the institutional crisis in Brazil. Parliament will vote on the possible impeachment of President Dilma Rouseff. In the event of an indictment, Roisseff will be suspended from office for six months and her place will be taken by deputy Michel Temer, who is also under investigation for episodes of corruption. On Wall Street, attention will be devoted to the results of the consumer sector, the only one that has so far given some satisfaction: it is the week of accounts for Macy's and other large non-food chains. In the spotlight the accounts of Walt Disney, dominatrix of the box office. In Europe, together with the quarterly reports of the big banks (Crédit Suisse, Crédit Agricole, Ing), interest in Vivendi's accounts.
ITALIAN AGENDA: TREASURY AUCTIONS, ENEL ACCOUNTS TODAY
The mid-month Treasury auctions are underway in Italy: next Wednesday 11 May, the Ministry of the Economy will make available to investors 6,5 billion euro in twelve-month Treasury bonds, against the 7,142 billion maturing. Tonight the Treasury will communicate the amounts of the medium-long term auction on Thursday. Standard & Poor's will update Italy's rating on Friday.
Rich corporate agenda in Piazza Affari. The boards of Enel (scheduled for a conference call), Campari (also scheduled for a meeting with analysts), Fineco Bank, Diasorin and Banzai will meet today to approve the quarterly report. Tomorrow it will be the turn of the quarterly reports of Bpm, Banco Popolare, Poste Italiane and Unicredit. The quarterly reports of Generali, Unipol and Bper are scheduled for 12 May. Friday 13 May will be Telecom Italia's turn. The Eni meeting is scheduled for Thursday 11th.
SMALL CAPS COUPONS COMING SOON
The distribution of a large number of coupons is also planned. Ascopiave (0,15 euro), Astaldi (0,2 euro), Biesse (0,36 euro), CadIT (0,15 euro), Cairo Communication (0,2 euro), Cerved Information Solutions (0,23 .0,25 euro), Datalogic (0,15 euro), Esprinet (0,045 euro), Falck Renewables (0,4 euro), Italmobiliare (0,478 euro, ordinary - 0,25 euro, savings), Prima Industrie (0,0052 euro ), Reno de Medici (1 euro), Reply (0,424 euro), Toscana Aeroporti (0,235 euro), Zignago Vetro (0,07 euro). Among the freshmen of Aim Lucisano Media Group (0,08 euro) and Notorious Pictures (XNUMX euro).
METROWEB: AFTER ENEL, THE TELECOM OFFER TODAY
Speed up the race for Metroweb. Enel's offer has already arrived: the purchase of a share just under 50% of a total valuation of 776 million and the simultaneous invitation to the CDP to stay in the game for the construction of the ultra-broadband network. Today will be Telecom Italia's turn. The valuation of the company that owns the fiber optic network in Milan is 825 million, equal to 15 times the historic EBITDA. The hypothesis of an all-cash offer takes shape, while the hypothesis of a mixed operation has lost ground: a share of Telecom Italia Sparkle in exchange for the shares held by CDP (46,2% of the capital) plus cash for the share held by F2i.
BANCO POPOLARE, THE INCREASE TO THE MARKET TEST
Tests in Piazza Affari for Banco Popolare after the shareholders' meeting approved the one billion euro capital increase requested by the ECB on Saturday with a very large majority to kick off the merger operation with Bpm. In the meeting, CEO Pier Francesco Saviotti said: "Banco Popolare and Bpm are not the couple of the year, but of the decade and it is the most important integration operation after the Intesa San Paolo merger whose successes it will be able to match, once fully operational". Completion of the merger is expected by the end of November.
For the capital increase, which it is hoped to close by June, Atlante is not expected to intervene. The guarantee consortium, led by Mediobanca and Merrill Lynch, includes around ten banks. It is not yet certain that the increase is entirely reserved for option rights, but it seems to be the most probable solution. But the operation will not be the easiest. Banco Popolare stock fell by 11,6% last week, leading the decline in the sector (-6,4% for the sector) ahead of Mediobanca (-10,9%), Ubi (-10,8%) and Pop.Milan (-10,7%).
UNICREDIT, A TORPEDO TO GHIZZONI FROM THE FT
Very critical article this morning in the Financial Times on Unicredit. The credibility of the institute was greatly weakened, we read, by the guarantee for the increase of Popolare di Vicenza, which then returned thanks to the intervention of Atlante. Some of the major shareholders of the Bank are pressing for a capital increase. “But – claims one of the ten most important shareholders – the Bank is unable to raise new funds with the current management”. This is how we talk about a change at the top: between the possible candidates Andrea Orcell of Ubs and the number one of Lloyds, the Portuguese Antonio Horta-Osorio
SAIPEM UNDER S&P'S HATCH. AZIMUTH PUNISHED BY MEDIOBANCA
Saipem is also under scrutiny. The rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the long-term rating to 'BB+' with a negative outlook from the previous 'BBB-' with a stable outlook, but removed it from the negative CreditWatch.
As for Azimut, evidence of rebound for the worst blue chip of the week with a loss of 11%, which compares with the -4,5% of the FtseMib. The quotation slipped below 20 euros, the lowest since mid-March. Mediobanca cut the recommendation to Neutral from the previous Outperform, lowering the target to 22 euros from 26 euros.
