The US is pressing for the embargo on Russian oil, but Europe is a niche: for Germany and Italy in particular, such a measure would turn into a boomerang that would hit their respective industrial productions. Meanwhile, the Bags they travel in free fall, the raw material I'm skyrocketing and the ruble is reduced to waste paper. The war advances without quarter, the spaces for diplomacy are almost non-existent for now. NATO, including Poland, has renounced to participate in air operations in Ukraine, avoiding the risk of a total conflict. In this climate, the extreme pessimism of the Stock Exchanges, which has also infected Asian markets, is not surprising:
Major stock exchanges in Asia Pacific are down 3% or more. The Nikkei index of Tokyo is down 3,2%. Hang Seng by Hong Kong -3,4%. CSI 300 of the price lists Shanghai and Shenzhen -2,4%. Kospi of Alone -2%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai -3%.
The future of the index Euro Stoxx 50 marks a drop of 2,7/3%.
In the night their it crossed the psychological threshold of 2000 dollars an ounce, only to settle down at 1990.
Il ruble sinks: -11,4%, to 138,5 against the dollar.
Russian oil embargo: Blinken speaks
Fly the Petroleum: Brent rose up to 139 dollars a barrel (+18%), the highest since 2008, to then settle for now at around 120 dollars (+8%); the Wti +8%, to 125.
During the night, following statements by US Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken, Brent reached 139 dollars a barrel. Blinken told a television station that he is negotiating with Europe the embargo on Russian oil, as well as interventions capable of ensuring the satisfaction of demand in any case.
Records for palladium (up 5% to 3.230 dollars) and for copper (+1% to 498 dollars).
Strong increases for agricultural commodities, especially for wheat, +7% this morning and +75% since the beginning of the year.
The ECB in the field for the euro: towards the confirmation of the supports
The markets thus embark on another week of passion under the explosion of bombs and the now palpable threat of stagflation. The euro loses momentum, trading at 1,09 against the dollar. The meeting of the ECB directorate on Thursday the 16th is viewed with very few illusions. The conflict between Moscow and Kiev has overturned the economic situation and the Eurotower cannot ignore it. The forecast is that Madame Lagarde will rely on maximum flexibility, because, despite European inflation is traveling at 5,8%, at levels not seen for forty years, the economic situation does not allow us to think either of an increase in cuts but not even to reduce the supports.
6,7 billion on the run from Europe, holds the S&P
The stock markets are restarting from a condition of great fragility. On Friday, under the excitement of the Russian attack on the Ukrainian nuclear power plant, European stock markets burned 400 billion in capitalisation. And it wasn't an isolated episode: according to Bank of America, net capital outflows from European equities reached $6,7 billion last week, the highest level in five years. Since the start of the Russian invasion, the EuroStoxx 600 has lost 10%, while the S&P 500, Wall Street's main index, has gained 2% over the same period.
Moody's: Moscow will pay 35% of the amount due
The agency Moody's cuts its credit rating on Russia to Ca, negative outlook, citing central bank capital controls limiting cross-border payments even on debt. Now the new downgrade is "driven by grave concerns about Russia's willingness and ability to pay its debt obligations," the rating agency said, adding that default risks have increased. "At the Ca rating level, recovery expectations are 35 to 65 percent," Moody's added.
US inflation towards 7,5%, mini-tighten confirmed
The situation overseas is different, pending the meeting on March 16, in which the Fed will raise rates by a quarter of a point. The February inflation data will be released on Thursday: an increase of half a point is expected in the month (7,5% on an annual basis).
A new iPhone for the internet's birthday, and Lego toasts
There are very few reasons to smile. Tomorrow the data of Lego, the Danish brick giant, will be released, which should have reached record results in the year of the pandemic.
Also tomorrow is the presentation of a new Apple product: the new iPhone.
Tim Berners-Lee, the father of the Internet, will issue a letter on Friday to mark the World Wide Web's 33rd birthday, on the status of its invention and its vision for its future.
Draghi today from Von der Leyen on the energy dossier
Today the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will receive the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi. One of the main themes of the meeting will be the energy question.
Tomorrow the trend of industrial production stands out on the Italian calendar and Wednesday the monthly note from Istat on the trend of the Italian economy.
Thursday there will be the expected meeting between the top management of Stellantis and the deputy prime minister Giancarlo Giorgetti.
Tomorrow the GDP of the Eurozone, on Wednesday we vote in Korea
The agenda. forecast tomorrow the communication of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2021 of the Eurozone.
On Wednesday, however, it will be the turn of Japan's GDP and China's inflation rate. Presidential elections will take place in South Korea on the same day: a vote in which the role of the younger generations promises to be relevant.
Thursday it's the turn of US inflation data for February.
