Next Sunday, May 31, 7 regions will go to the vote, with a dry electoral session, without a runoff. Two Regions in the North (Liguria and Veneto), three in the Center (Tuscany, Marche and Umbria) and two in the South (Campania and Puglia) call their citizens to the polls - from 7 to 23 - to renew the president and the regional council in seven regions. On the same day will be held the administrative elections in 1.062 municipalities, including 18 provincial capitals.
The two northern regions, Liguria and Veneto, are precisely among those where the outcome is more uncertain. In fact, the respective outgoing and over-favorite majorities for reconfirmation are doing everything to complicate life: however, while in Veneto the "rebel" Flavio Tosi shouldn't prevent the League from keeping its hands on the stronghold with Luca Zaia, in and around Genoa the list civatiana by Luca Pastorino seems to put the official list of the Democratic Party headed by Raffaella Paita in difficulty, with the dangerous (for the governing party) result of bringing the centre-right candidate Giovanni Toti back into play, who initially had no hope of success. Or at best of cripple Paita herself forcing it, in the event of a narrow victory, to broad agreements.
LIGURIA
At the origins of the possible own goal arriving in Liguria is the split in the Democratic Party during the primaries to choose the presidential candidate: Raffaela Paita, Renziana, obtained the candidacy overtaking Sergio Cofferati, who denounced irregularities and fraud. Paita, regional councilor for infrastructure in the Burlando council, is also being investigated for homicide and manslaughter following the floods in Genoa on 9 and 10 October 2014, even though the person concerned largely defended herself. After the primaries he joined the race
Luca Pastorino, also from the Democratic Party but close to the dissident Pippo Civati: he resigned as a parliamentarian and ran for president, and according to some polls he could collect up to 13-14% of the preferences, obviously taking them away from Paita.
John Toti for his part, all he had to do was conduct a wait-and-see electoral campaign, taking advantage of the dispute within the Democratic Party, which could even give him a surprise victory. Also not to be underestimated is the confirmation of the 5 Star Movement, with Alice Salvatore accredited with a consensus of more than 20%.
Surveys. According to the recent Ipsos poll for Corriere della Sera, Raffaella Paita, who has governed in the last five years in Claudio Burlando's junta, is in the lead, with a consensus between 28 and 31% (other polls bring her to a maximum of 33 %). Giovanni Toti is instead between 26 and 29% (others reach 31%), Luca Pastorino between 10 and 14%, and Alice Salvatore between 21 and 22%.
Nominees. Raffaella Paita (Democratic Party), Luca Pastorino (Left ecology freedom, Communist Refoundation), Giovanni All (Forza Italia, Northern League, Brothers of Italy, New Psi, Reformists, People's Area, Liberals), Alice Savior (5 Star Movement), Antonio Bruno (Altra Liguria Project), Enrico Musso (Free Liguria), Matthew Piccards (Communist Workers' Party), Mirella Esoteric (Brotherhood of Women).
VENETO
In Veneto the favorite candidate is, despite the split within the Northern League, the outgoing president Luca Zaia. Even if he will have to face his former party partner and mayor of Verona Flavio Tosi, who controversially left the Northern League and stood as a candidate with an autonomous list. However, the latter would not seem, according to the polls, to garner enough votes (in spite of Tosi's great popularity among the Venetian citizens) neither to undermine Zaia's reconfirmation nor much, as could instead happen with reversed parties in Liguria, to benefit some competing party.
The candidate of the Pd is the Vicenza doc Alessandra Moretti, which could collect one vote out of 3, but at a distance of at least 10 percentage points compared to what the outgoing president is expected to obtain. Despite an apparent optimism from the national leadership – Maria Elena Boschi even spoke of victory last weekend in Veneto – Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has openly supported Moretti, is showing caution.
Surveys. According to the latest polls, Luca Zaia is ahead, with consensus between 42 and 45%, followed by Alessandra Moretti, between 31 and 34%: therefore a gap of 10 abundant points. Flavio Tosi is given between 8 and 11%, a performance that could be even lower than that of Jacopo Berti of the Movimento 5 Stelle, predicted between 10 and 13%.
Candidates. Alessandra Moretti (Democratic Party), Luca Zaia (Northern League, Forza Italia), Flavio Tosi (Autonomous list), Jacopo Berti (5 Star Movement), Alessio Morosin (Venetian Independence), Laura By Lucia Coletti (The other Veneto) and Sebastiano Sartori (Force new).
