Catalonia returns to the polls. On Thursday 21 December, Catalans will vote to renew the regional parliament. This time we are dealing with real, legal elections, called by the Government of Madrid after the dissolution of the institutions of Barcelona established following the unilateral declaration of independence presented by the Generalitat led by Carles Puigdemont, self-exiled in Belgium and on whose shoulders still hangs a mandate of arrest.
CATALONIA: SUMMARY OF THE PREVIOUS EPISODES
They are two key dates who led the richest and most renowned autonomous community in Spain (or perhaps by now it would be appropriate to use the past) towards this new electoral round, even if the story that led Barcelona towards independence is much longer:
- October 1, 2017: the day on which the now famous referendum on the independence of Catalonia was held. A consultation considered illegal by the Government of Madrid and by the Spanish judges, during which there were episodes of violence that scandalized the world.
- October 27 2017: after weeks of confrontation between Madrid and Barcelona, the Parlament de Catalunya has the declaration of independence triggering the immediate reaction of the central government which decided for the first time in Iberian history to apply article 155 of the Constitution. Parliament dissolved and regional government dismissed.
Three days later, the Spanish public prosecutor's office reacted harshly, accusing i proponents of independence rebellion and sedition. Some of them, like the former vice president Oriol Junqueras, are in prison awaiting trial. Others, like the former president of the Generalitat, Carlos Puigdemont, I'm in Belgium. The paradox, however, lies in the fact that both leaders are candidates for the presidency of the region and in case of victory they will probably have some "small difficulty" in exercising their role. An example? The moment Puigdemont sets foot on Spanish soil, he will find the police waiting for him, ready to arrest him immediately.
CATALONIA TOWARDS ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
As widely expected, the political vicissitudes of recent months have had repercussions on the resilience of the regional economy which alone is worth 20% of Spanish GDP and 23% of industrial production.
From 1 October to today, based on data provided by the Colegio de Registradores, more than three thousand companies have decided to move their registered offices outside the Catalan borders and more than a thousand those who have changed tax domicile. Among them are companies of the caliber of Abertis, Sabadell, CaixaBank, eDreams. In total the "colossus who fled" are 62, with a direct impact on the regional gross domestic product of 11,5 billion euros.
The inevitable slowdown of the Catalan economy will have consequences for the whole country. The Spanish Central Bank has in fact cut its growth estimates for the next few years by 0,1% to 2,4% and 2,1%. Among the causes of the reduction is the Catalan chaos.
CATALONIA: THE DECEMBER 21 ELECTIONS
This is the climate, quite surreal, in which the Catalan elections on Thursday 21 December, a call to the polls characterized once again by a deep uncertainty.
The fronts that opposed each other until 27 October are gone, but what everyone is waiting to see is who will prevail in the clash between separatists and unionists.
There will be a total of seven parties in the running and none of them seems to have a chance of exceeding thirty percent of the vote. Despite this, the eyes will be focused in particular on the three most popular political forces:
- Republican Left (ERC), the pro-independence left party led by former vice president Oriol Junqueras (in prison).
- Together for Catalonia (JxCat), by Carles Puigdemont (in Belgium) and supported by the centre-right independence party PDeCAT;
- Ciutadans, the Catalan section of Ciudadanos, a centre-right and unionist political force.
The other candidate parties are the Catalan Popular Party (PPC), the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), Catalunya en Comú (the Catalan Podemos) and the now famous representatives of the Cup. The first three are anti-independence, the fourth perhaps represents the most extreme fringe of independence.
CATALONIA: THE POLLS
As mentioned earlier, based on surveys none of the candidate parties will reach 30%. According to the surveys published immediately before the beginning of the "electoral silence", the separatists could obtain a handful of seats more than the unionists: but in general the next Catalan Parliament could be one of the most fragmented ever.
An average of the polls carried out by the newspaper El Pais, indicates that the seats could be distributed as follows:
- ERC: 33,
- Citizens: 32,
- Junts for Catalunya: 27,
- Catalan Socialist Party: 20,
- CeC-Podem: 9,
- People's Unity Nomination (CUP): 8,
- People's Party: 6.
CATALONIA: THE POST-VOTE SCENARIOS
Numbers in hand therefore, in the event that the polls are confirmed, the victory of the separatists is absolutely not to be excluded which would open up a rather confused scenario both on the balance of power between the various parties and on the president, considering the political-judicial vicissitudes of the leaders of ERC and Junts per Catalunya.
The question that everyone asks, however, is obviously always the same: in case of confirmation, Will the secessionists continue to push for independence? Probably not, given the half sentences uttered by Junqueras and Puigdemont about a "hasty statement". In this case, however, the majority could be in danger, given that the CUP has no intention of taking even one step back. If, on the other hand, the answer is affirmative, an endless vicious circle could be reopened, also because Rajoy covertly stated further occasions that article 155 will be revoked only if the separatists lose.
In case of union victory However, the scenario may not be less complicated. The strongest party is Inés Arrimadas' Ciutadans, which could receive the support of the Popular Party but not that of the Socialists and the CeC.
At this point it will be necessary to keep an eye on it Miquel Iceta, number one of the Catalan Socialist Party, a name around which an anti-independence minority government could form according to what the Iberian newspapers say.
