The euro and the Asian stock exchanges are falling back, but not too much, waiting to cold-assess the impact of the victory, after all announced, by Syriza in Greece. In Athens The anti-austerity party stopped one step away from the absolute majority in Parliament (two seats missing). The future premier Alexis Tsipras reiterated in the square that "We leave behind 5 years of misery and austerity". But the ECB is waiting to listen to the next Greek prime minister before extending emergency loans to Greek banks. And the president of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann warns Athens: "Respect the agreements". The single currency, which fell below 1,11 against the dollar, recovered to 1,17, still close to its lowest level since 2003.
PRUDENT TOKYO. BILLIONAIRE WEDDING FOR US INSURANCE
in Tokyo theNikkei index loses around half a percentage point. Hong Kong and Shanghai are also weak. The markets of Sydney and Mumbai are closed for holidays: today Obama is visiting New Delhi.
Big hit over the weekend in the US insurance sector: the merger between Axis Capital and Partner Re has been announced, from which a group with 11 billion in premiums will be born.
Crude oil returns to fall (Wti around 45 dollars): the confirmation of Al Naimi at the helm of Saudi Arabian crude oil has extinguished speculation about the after Abdullah.
The data from the German Ifo will be communicated in the morning.
TREASURY AUCTIONS. BTP HUNTING FOR NEW RECORDS
To what level can Treasury yields fall? It is one of the key questions for operators on the eve of month-end auctions, the first after the ECB's turnaround. Tomorrow 2-3 billion Ctz and Btpei will be auctioned; 7 billion 6-month Bots will be offered on Wednesday. Thursday will be the turn of medium-long term securities (quantities communicated tonight). Maturing securities (40 billion) and coupons to be collected (15 billion) will also contribute to success.
The ten-year BTP touched a minimum yield of 1,45% on Friday and then closed at 1,50%. The German ten-year rate slipped to 0,32%, against the French one to 0,54%, against Spain to 1,36%. But the hunt for yield has also produced other results: the yield of the thirty-year BTP, surprisingly included in the list of securities that can be purchased as part of the QE, has collapsed from 3,12% to 2,68%.
Shopping fever has also hit the corporate segment. The Terna's seven-year corporate bond was snapped up on Friday: the initial target of 500 million with a yield of 65 bp over the swap was raised to one billion (price 52 bp on the swap).
Medium/long-term issues are expected for 2015 for 236 billion against 197 billion of maturing securities (plus 57 billion in coupons). From March, thanks to al Qe, 7-8 billion a month will be purchased by the ECB.
THE FED WILL STILL BE “PATIENT”. SUSPENCE IN MOSCOW
It continued over the weekend long distance duel between Mario Draghi and Jens Weidmann harshly critical of Qe. But the week promises more news on the central bank front.
The meeting of the FOMC, the monetary committee of the Federal Reserve, begins tomorrow and will meet tomorrow and Wednesday. The forecast is that President Janet Yellen will reiterate that the US central bank intends to be "patient" before starting the increase in the cost of money, which could materialize in April.
Other central banks will update the cost of money policy this week. Also meeting are the monetary authorities of: Israel, Thailand, Hungary, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Africa, Mexico and Colombia. The board of the Russian central bank deserves particular attention: the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict risks triggering new sales on the ruble.
CORPORATE ITALY REVIEWS THE ACCOUNTS UPWARDS
After the week that rocked the financial world, the markets are rethinking the eurozone, especially the IItaly, according to Crédit Suisse the only country in the Eurozone that will significantly benefit from Quantitative Easing. The combined effect of falling interest rates, oil and a weak euro may be worth, according to calculations by the Confindustria Study Centre, 1,8 points by the end of 2016 and will generate savings of 3,2 billion in interest for businesses.
In the last five sessions, both Milan and the Stoxx 600 index gained 6,5% (+7,9% since the beginning of the year).
There are many "hot" topics in Piazza Affari
POPULAR IN THE TRENCH. MANAGEMENT IS BOOMING
Between suspicions, allusions and countermoves of the lobbies, the battle rages on the front of the reform of the Popolari. It is obvious that the issue will continue this week as well, after the strong increases tempered by the setback on Friday, after the outcry of the trade association.
The FTSE banking index has nevertheless achieved a rise of 17,7% in the last two weeks. Friday Sales were felt on Unicredit -2% and on Popolari: Pop.Milano -2,2%. Banco Popolare -4,7%, Pop.Emilia -2,7%, Ubi Banca -3,4%. MontePaschi also fell -5,3% with the popular ones. Insurance companies are up, and above all asset management securities: UnipolSai +1,8%, Mediolanum +1,2%, Azimut +3,3%.??
FIAT CHRYSLER REVEALS AWAITING THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Fiat Chrysler has engaged sixth gear while waiting for the board dedicated to the preliminary accounts for 2014, which will be held in London on Wednesday 28: after seven consecutive increases (and six positive weeks) the stock has reached price levels it hasn't seen since December 2000. ??According to the consensus of analysts, the accounts should be in line with the industrial plan targets: the estimates prepared by Thomson Reuters Eikon indicate for 2014: revenues of 94,5 billion euros, Ebit at 3,3 billion, net profit at 537,5 million, net debt at 10,7 billion. News on the Ferrari IPO front are not excluded.
Among the Automotive stocks, the performance of Brembo at new all-time high at 31,60 euros after nine consecutive hikes. In the first 9 months of 2014 Brembo achieved a net profit of 94,4 million euro, up 48,9% on revenues up 16,1% to 1,34 billion. The results for the whole of 2014 will be communicated on 5 March. Three out of four analysts recommend buying, for an average target price of 32,3 euros.
Pirelli is also in the spotlight: the drop in raw materials, combined with the euro effect, pushes Bicocca's stock: Harbor International Fund has increased its stake to 5,066%.
INDUSTRY IN RECOVERY, FROM CHIPS TO METRO'
In the spotlight also Stm. On the eve of the board meeting on Wednesday 28, promotions for the chips jv are raining down, among the most sensitive to the revaluation of the dollar (area in which most sales are concentrated) and the drop in the euro (where costs are concentrated) : Goldman Sachs raised target price, Exane upgraded stock to outperform from neutral. Citi raised its target price to 7,5 euros (from 5).
Brilliant too Finmeccanica. Over the threshold of 9 euros for the first time since June 2011 (intraday high €9,115). While awaiting the sale of assets in the transport sector (Japanese Hitachi favoured) Ansaldo Breda has been awarded a contract worth around 250 million euro for the provision of 47 driverless subway trains, i.e. self-driving, of Milan. Banca IMI and Banca Akros reiterated their Buy recommendation, with a target price of €9,50 and €10,50 respectively.
TELECOM ITALIA INSIDE THE TLC RISK
The fever has broken out for mergers and acquisitions in the European TLC sector with immediate repercussions on Telecom Italia +4,5%. The spark was the offer by Hutchinson Whampoa (owner, inter alia, of 3) to buy mobile operator O2 from Spain's Telefonica for £10,2 billion (about $15 billion).
Meanwhile, the go-ahead for the sale of the Portuguese assets of the Brazilian Oì to the French group Altice for 7,4 billion euros paved the way for an offer on Tim Brasil, the Telecom Italia group, by Oì itself, Claro (America Movil group ) and with the participation of Vivo, Telefonica group, strengthened by the sale in the UK. In turn, Telecom's top management will have a meeting with Brazilian officials this week to test the ground before deciding whether to start negotiations and make their own offer for Oì.
THE DOLLAR IS GOOD FOR TOD'S, FERRAGAMO AND MONCLER
The fall of the euro has also given a boost to luxury. Tod's is up 7% (at its highest since September) after Thursday announcing 2014 revenue growth. Diego Della Valle is optimistic about 2015: “In the light of the first positive results of the spring collections now in stores, I am confident that our group, albeit in a context of low visibility and uncertainty on some markets, will be able to achieve positive results this year ”. Analysts are more cautious. Barclays confirmed the Underweight rating, adjusting the target to 67 euros from 63 euros. Bryan Garnier took the recommendation to Hold da Sell, raising the target to 78 euros from 74 euros. Natixis still suggests lightening (Reduce) with a target of 61 euros from the previous 60 euros. Ferragamo gained 5,1%.
Moncler (+4%) exceeded the threshold of 13 euros, reaching the highest level since last June. Friday was the thirteenth increase in the last fourteen sessions. From the communications to Consob on the relevant holdings it emerges that the T.Rowe Price Associates funds have risen to 6,57% of the capital, Solid front of analysts on the view of the stock: eight out of ten analysts recommend buying for an average target price of 14,50, XNUMX euros.
