While today Istat confirmed a GDP growth of 0,7% for 2016, much more encouraging signals are coming from the German economy (less so from the French and Spanish ones). In fact, Germany is running on its own, showing growth rates higher than estimates and even higher than the European average, thanks to the support offered by domestic demand, which is offsetting the slowdown in exports. This is also reflected in inflation, which is confirmed in evident recovery in July, definitively removing the deflationary risk.
According to the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), which today released the preliminary estimate, the GDP in the 2nd quarter recorded a growth of 0,4% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding consensus estimates at +0,2%. Certainly this is a slowdown compared to the +0,7% recorded in the 1st quarter, but clearly higher than the European average. On an annual basis, he expects growth to be as high as 3,1% against the 1,5% reported in June and estimated by analysts.
Instead, in France, the brakes growth in non-agricultural private sector employment. In the 2nd quarter there was an increase of 0,2% compared to the previous quarter. The figure, communicated by the French National Statistics Institute (INSEE), corresponds to an increase of 24.100 units in absolute terms and compares with a +0,3% recorded in the previous quarter. Expectations were for an increase of 0,3%. On an annual basis there was an increase of 0,9% against 1% in the previous quarter.
Eventually they continue to slip the orders and the turnover of the industry in Spain, confirming a slowdown in industrial activity and in the Iberian economy. In the period under review, industrial orders, excluding the calendar effect, recorded a sharp decrease of 4,3% on an annual basis compared to +1,5% in the previous month (revised from a preliminary +1,2% ), while the incorrect figure marks a -4,3% from +5,9%. This was communicated by the Spanish statistical institute INE, adding that the monthly variation was equal to -4,5% after the previous +3,6%.
Turnover, on the other hand, recorded an annual drop of 1% from the previous -3,7% (data revised from a preliminary -4%), net of the effects of the calendar, while the original index dropped by 0,7% from the previous -0,1%. The monthly change was equal to +1,7% after -0,6% in May.
