Watch out for those two. Put the contagious verve of Ennio Doris, add the viral optimism of Gianni Tamburi. And any doubts about the duration and effectiveness of the PIR phenomenon will disappear by magic. This is what happened at the presentation of the research dedicated to the “Pir. The effects of supply and demand for capital in the Italian stock market” curated by the Milan Polytechnic on behalf of Intermonte. A thorough examination, which has not overlooked some critical issues that emerge behind the "miracle" of a collection that beat all predictions (but not Doris). In particular:
- The PIRs have led to an increase in the prices of small cap stocks and those traded on the Star compared to blue chips. As far as SMEs are concerned, this is a phenomenon common to the French and German price lists, the best performance regards the Star.
- The phenomenon coincided with an increase in trading limited to Aim which did not affect the major stocks. In short, we can speak of "cannibalization" of the major titles to the advantage of the volumes of the Aim (increased more than six times) and the Star ("only" doubled).
- However, the rush to purchase has not yet translated into a significant increase in freshmen. On the main list there were 8 freshmen, on the Aim there was a "shy" increase in quotations (23 during the year), lower than the initial estimates.
- These are the results achieved in 2017, an excellent year for the Stock Exchange. But now? Will the trend continue or is it destined to lose momentum in a season of rate hikes, more stingy in performance?
Ennio Doris, tutelary deity of Banca Mediolanum, sees it this way. “Rather than making predictions, let's convince ourselves that the future is in our hands. Let's get busy because, with the introduction of the Pir, we have an extraordinary tool in hand for making the economy grow. But we need to work hard to explain to industrialists that they have a formidable tool at their disposal to strengthen businesses". He is doing it. “Since the law was born, I have had meetings with two thousand entrepreneurs. Twenty, 1%, have already given me a positive signal. Few? I insist, in the belief that it is the right solution, further favored by the incentives for listing. The results achieved so far, after six months or so of work, are extremely positive”.
Gianni Tamburi, founder and guide of TIP, agrees. “It is not easy to convince an entrepreneur to take the first step. I know this well, since in my life I have led 38 quotations on the stock exchange. In Italy, then, we are dealing with entrepreneurs who are very wealthy on a personal level who have always been able to count on credit from banks, willing to compete with each other to finance good companies. And even the less good ones. But things have changed: partly due to a leap in cultural quality, partly because assets are divided among a growing number of heirs, the path of the Stock Exchange is gaining more and more weight. Anyway Ennio, you are right. You have to explain to customers not to be in a hurry. Just think that Farinetti, the owner of Eataly, came to tell me: why does it take us so long to go to the Stock Exchange? Doris told me he quoted me in a week."
The president of Mediolanum grinned ear to ear. “It is important to present things in the right way. If an entrepreneur says he is afraid of a takeover, you have to tell him that listing on the Stock Exchange is the best way to defend control thanks to the support of many minority shareholders, such as those who can be guaranteed by subscriptions to the PIR: a more strong in terms of assets is more protected from takeovers. And the more members there are, the more protected you are from the vultures.”
“The bubble effect – continues Tamburi – cannot be excluded. But it doesn't seem like there is. And I don't think that the traditional parameters of judgment are still valid in a moment of great transformation where digital has upset multiples. It is a somewhat unprecedented situation, in which politics no longer matters. And foreign investors are increasingly interested in our companies, which have few equals in the world”.
“Operators – concludes Doris – must think in the short term. But an investor, who has other horizons, must not forget that the markets are destined to grow over time. I have experienced three crises in my life: 1973-74, 2001 and the downturn following the collapse of Lehman. But even the most serious crises have been absorbed within months, at most a year. The investor will earn sooner or later. Especially today, thanks to the Pir. When the law was approved, I gathered our team to say: starting today our strategy changes. It's a historic occasion." But now? What suggestions for a new government?” There is absolutely no need for anything – closes Tamburi – Now it's our turn”. "We finally have a market," Doris gloats. Watch out for those two, really.
