ASIAN BAGS IN RED
TOKYO -2,11. HSBC LOSSES 4,3%
The week on the financial markets starts badly, as expected. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index is down by 2,11%, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed with a drop of 3,38%. The MSCI Asia Pacific basket recorded a loss of 2,1%. Futures on the S&P 500 were also down (-1%). Bank stocks lead the decline. Shares of HSBC in Hong Kong fell 4,3%.
TREASURE AUCTIONS 18,5 BILLION
THE BTP/BUND SPREAD STARTS AGAIN AT 370
Between today and tomorrow, the Treasury will ask the market to flesh out the state coffers by subscribing to new Italy-risk loans, through the purchase of government bonds at auction: three- and twelve-month BoTs will be sold on Monday for 11,5 billion while the BTPs will go on offer on Tuesday for an amount between 5 and 7 billion. Spain, Holland, France and Germany will also issue government bonds within the same week, on Friday the spread between the BTP and the Bund rose to 370 points on the wave of rumors of an imminent Greek default and the resignation of Juergen Stark, chief economist and member of the board of the ECB.
All this after a creepy month: from 400 points at the beginning of August to 270 after the first purchases of Italian bonds by the ECB, back to 370 due to the uncertainties about the maneuver, down to 330 after the vote. In parallel, the 6,4-year BTP peaked at 5% before the ECB intervention, briefly managed to break through the psychological threshold of 5,70% thanks to the Frankfurt purchases, but then recovered to around 5,40%. before settling in the XNUMX per cent area.
ATHENS BETS ON A 2,5 BILLION ASSET
BERLIN HAS A PLAN B FOR ITS BANKS
Greece plays the last card to avoid default: 2,5 billion in taxes on homes, ascertained through the electricity bill (total taxes per kilowatt hour consumed) in an extreme effort to meet the demands of the ECB-IMF-EU troika who will return to Athens on Wednesday. Meanwhile, in fact. It now seems certain that the target of 90% of private individuals joining the exchange of Greek bonds, a necessary condition to be able to start the aid plan agreed last July, has been failed.
As Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos acknowledged, the economic situation has now turned into a tailspin: the decline in GDP is around 7.3 percent, against 3,8 in May. The CDS on Greece price the possibility of default at 94%, the yields on government bonds are above 50%. The banks, in a liquidity crisis (deposits have dropped from 240 to 180 billion) have subscribed only half of the bonds, 1,5 billion, offered at auction by the Greek Treasury. There is talk of a bridging solution to avoid default in extremis, but for now, confusion reigns supreme. Prime Minister Georges Papandreou, speaking on Saturday in Thessaloniki, assured: "We will remain in the euro". The new German deputy premier, Philip Roessler, meanwhile, speaks openly of alternative initiatives to what was agreed in May: "We must not be afraid of extreme options".
Germany, according to rumors, has already developed a plan B to rescue its banks (1,15 billion Deutsche Bank alone) in the event of a Greek default. “Europeans agree that at least three-quarters of world finance's problems today depend on their own woes”. This is the anonymous comment of a US official at the end of the G7 in Marseilles concluded with an official statement which states that "all necessary measures will be taken to consolidate the foundations of the banking and financial markets". Too little to reassure the Stock Exchanges, even if the US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner underlined, at the end, that "Europeans are perfectly aware of the seriousness of the crisis". In the meantime, there is eager anticipation for the press conference that Jean-Claude Trichet will hold today in Basel after the usual meeting of the governors.
TOWARDS THE DOWNGRADE OF THE MAJOR FRENCH BANKS
THE COST OF THE PROVISION IN DOLLARS RISES BY 5 TIMES
In the next few days, perhaps already today, Moody's will downgrade the ratings of major French banks: Bnp Paribas (Aa2), Credit Agricole (Aa1) and Societé Generale (Aa2) due to exposure to the Greek banking system. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that the cost of funding in dollars for European banks has grown fivefold from the levels of June to the level of 103 basic points (against 20 bp at the beginning of summer). According to the newspaper, banks need about 500 billion to refinance loans in US currency.
BUSINESS PLACE STARTS AGAIN FROM -10% IN ONE WEEK
FINANCIAL PEOPLE SUFFER. ONLY EDISON SHINES (AND JUVE)
In Piazza Affari, a nervous session is expected with little room for a rebound after the German tear in the ECB and the rumors of a default by Greece, which scuttled the markets on Friday. On the stock markets of the Old Continent, which in the last week left another 10% on the ground (the Eurostoxx 9,92 index -50%), there are still fears about the stability of the Eurozone and the G7 conclusions do not seem able to throw much water on the fire. A «strong and coordinated international response» and a commitment to cut debt and consolidate public budgets through policies that do not endanger growth were announced in Marseille on Friday night.
The Ftse Mib index, at the end of last week, stopped just above the threshold of 14 thousand points, at 14.020 (-9,92%) . Banks suffered more than all, the first to suffer from the lack of confidence in government bonds: Unicredit lost 15,84%, Intesa 14,60% with the quotation below the 1 euro threshold. Among the financials, also Generali (-9,63%), worse Fondiaria-Sai with -13,59%. The whole Fiat group was bad, with auto at -10,49%, Fiat Industrial -13,41%, Exor -12,48%. Enel also down - 9,20% with a negative report, while EGP rises by 0,81%. Leap by Edison (+7,54%) in anticipation of the next move by EDF which is studying the inclusion of a financial investor. And of Juventus (+10,99%) in the week in which the owned stadium was inaugurated.
BPM TOWARDS THE SALE OF CASSA ALESSANDRIA
GETTING READY TO WELCOME MATTEO ARPE
Spotlights on Banca Popolare di Milano, grappling with the capital increase, the review of governance in the direction of the dual and the possible sale of subsidiaries to strengthen capital ratios. The transfer of 80% of the Cassa di Risparmio di Alessandria to the Cassa di Risparmio di Asti is being studied, with the consultancy of Bruno Ermolli's Sin&rgetica. The capital increase, postponed for a few weeks, will be less than 1,2 billion (probably 900 million), due to market conditions.
The role of Matteo Arpe's Sator will be defined shortly. The manager should become a shareholder of Bpm and then subscribe pro rata to the capital increase for a total investment of 200 million in exchange for a role in the group's governing bodies. Finally, next Tuesday, on the occasion of the meeting of the board of directors, the chairman Massimo Ponzellini could ask for the mandate to study a dual project to be presented quickly to the Bank of Italy and naturally to the shareholders' meeting.
FIAT IN INDIA GETS FREE OF A GERMAN "ENEMY".
IN TATA VOLKSWAGEN INTIMATE TO SUZUKI: DON'T BUY FIAT ENGINES
A double conflict between the Lingotto and the Big Germans. Sergio Marchionne welcomed the news that Tata Motors has ended relations with the English CEO Carl-Peter Foster of German origin who, manager at Opel, had strongly rejected the hypothesis of an agreement with Fiat. Similar script with Tata. After his arrival, the alliance between the Italian and Indian groups was practically interrupted. Now we start again from the Ranjangeon plant where Fiat produces engines for Tta and the 1.3 and 75 HP 90 Multijet engine for Suzuki.
Meanwhile, with an official note Volkswagen accuses Suzuki, of which it controls 19,9%, of having violated the terms of the alliance signed in 2009. This for having chosen Fiat, rather than Volkswagen, as the supplier of the 1.6 MultiJet II 120 engine CV. Last June, in fact, Suzuki announced that the diesel produced in Turin will be used on the next generation of the Sx4 produced in the Hungarian factory in Esztergom (where the Fiat Sedici is also born). «Suzuki will have a few weeks to remedy the infraction» syllables the German ultimatum. «It is an unfortunate step», continues the press release, «but necessary. Suzuki remains an interesting investment». In reality Osamu Suzuki does not hide his disappointment with the axis with the Germans.
The agreement with Fiat was negotiated by him himself in Turin. A divorce is therefore looming which will change the balance of the Indian market, where the Japanese have been at the top for years. Volkswagen hoped to have found the bridgehead suitable for breaking through in New Dehli as well. Now he will have to change plans.
USA, LIGHT TAX FOR VIDEOGAMES
ONLY 98 BILLION TAXES ON 1,2 BILLION PROFITS
The ways of the taxman are truly inscrutable. Yesterday the New York Times gave great evidence to the discovery of Professor Calvin H. Johnston of the University of Texas, a former Treasury official. The companies that enjoy the most interesting tax relief are videogame producers who can combine the discounts applied to software producers with those provided for the entertainment industry and the incentives for electronic commerce. The result is that Electronic Arts, which sold more than two million copies of the video game Dead Space 2 this year, compared to 1,2 billion dollars in profits recorded in the last five years, paid only 98 million to the tax authorities of dollars.
