The markets have closed the first turbulent two months of 2016. But worries about the global economy remain. A cloak of uncertainty hangs over all stock exchanges, starting with Wall Street, confirming that these days confidence in the Stock Exchange is a rare commodity, despite the action of central banks.
Not even the recovery in oil prices (Wti +3%, Brent +2,5%) provided the necessary propellant to close February in positive territory: the fear of a financial collapse of many energy companies advised traders to lighten their positions . Wall Street thus closed in the red: Dow Jones -0,74%, S&P 500 -0,81%, Nasdaq -0,7%. In the pharma sector, Valeant posted a 14% decline.
The macroeconomic data released in the afternoon signaled a generalized loss of momentum. The Chicago area Purchasing Manager's Index fell to 47,6 in February from 55,6 in January, the consensus expectation was 52,9.
The index elaborated by the Dallas Fed on the basis of the expectations of the purchasing managers of manufacturing companies, settled in February at -31,8 from -34,6 in January, the consensus estimated -30. Meanwhile Bill Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, speaking in China warned against the risk of a slowdown in the US economy: despite the G20's facade optimism, central banks are seeking remedies to avoid a relapse in crisis.
CHINA SLOWS DOWN AGAIN
Yesterday, the Chinese Central Bank thought of giving oxygen to the markets with the cut of half a point of the compulsory reserves to be paid by the banks, a measure which according to Bloomberg is equivalent to an injection of liquidity equal to 105 billion dollars. But the effect was limited this morning by data, worse than expected, on the state of health of the economy: manufacturing activity is still down, even the tertiary sector is down, both at their lowest for six years. And so, after Monday's landslide in Chinese stock exchanges, the rebound of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges stops below 1 percent. Positive Hong Kong +0,6%.
TOKYO, OFFERED AT AUCTION XNUMX YEARS AT NEGATIVE RATE
After six sessions, the fall of the yuan stops, but the race for the yen does not stop. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index (-0,7%) is in negative territory. But the most dramatic signal comes from the government bond market. This morning, for the first time, the Bank of Japan offered 0,024-year bonds at a negative yield: -2026%. In other words, those who get into debt between now and XNUMX will receive a premium upon expiry: once the thrust of lower rates and the stimulus effect of Quantitative Easing have exhausted, all that remains is to distribute money by helicopter, according to the image used by Milton Friedman .
EUROPE, PRICES BELOW ZERO: DRAGONS SPEAK
Even Europe, awaiting the decisions of the ECB, is finding itself countering the effect of the recession. The first remedy is the weak euro, a phenomenon triggered by waiting for Mario Draghi's action. The dollar, up eighth in ten sessions, rose to 1,088, the highest since February.
But the drop in inflation in the Eurozone to negative ground (-0,2% from +0,3% in January) has accelerated the race for the German Bund: the 0,11-year yield is 1,454%, one step away from negative rates . The spread with the BTP, traded at a rate of 133%, remained stable at XNUMX points.
This further complicates the downward path of the Italian public debt, an objective already weighed down by a growth prospect that is proving to be less brilliant than what the government envisaged. The verification will take place this morning with the release of the PMI indices on the main countries of the Eurozone. Great expectations on the corporate front for Barclays' accounts. The boards of Luxottica and Bper are on the agenda in Italy.
A weak opening is expected for the lists of the Old Continent: futures report London -45 bp, Paris -56, Frankfurt -100.
AFTER 14 YEARS THE AGREEMENT ON TANGO BOND COMES
The positive note comes from Argentina: Buenos Aires and its main creditors who have not joined the past restructurings have reached an agreement in principle for 4,653 billion dollars 14 years after the default of the sovereign debt. The agreement, reached Sunday night and announced yesterday by New York court ombudsman Daniel Pollack, provides that creditors receive 75% of the outstanding amount including principal and interest.
POSITIVE SESSION IN EUROPE. MILAN +0,8%
Positive closing for the European stock exchanges, thanks to a markedly improved climate on the markets following the measures taken by the Beijing authorities. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 0,8%, the Paris Stock Exchange was positive +0,9%, Frankfurt fell by 0,1%. In Europe, the best increases were seen in mining and raw materials stocks (Stoxx in the sector +3,2%), as well as companies in the Automotive (+1,5%) and Oil (+1,3%) sectors.
THE BLACK JERSEY OF FEBRUARY AT PIAZZA AFFARI
The markets have closed the first, terrible, two months of 2016. Above all. Our FtseMib, which in the first two months accumulated a loss of around 18%, in the worst moment (February 11) came to lose more than 26%. The decline in Frankfurt was also significant (-12,6%), better than France (-7%).
City suffers from the weakness of the Pound (-6% since the beginning of 2016 against the Euro). The performance of the British Stock Exchange expressed in local currency is only negative by two percentage points (-8% if converted into the single currency).
At the other extreme we find instead a surprising Brazil. Even if the economy is in full recession, the Brazilian Stock Exchange, moreover recovering from three consecutive negative years, limited the damage (-2,2% in euros).
Wall Street (-4,7% on both the Dow Jones and Standard & Poor's) is the market that has been able to react best in recent weeks thanks to a series of better-than-expected news on the trend of the American economy and thanks to the rebound of the crude oil, the decline of which has put a strain on the entire shale sector.
The MSCI World index is aligned on a loss for the period of 6,5% whether emerging stock exchanges are excluded or included.
MARCHIONNE'S SCUDERIA TO THE RESCUE, THE GENEVA SHOW HAS STARTED
The Fiat Chrysler star shines again on the price list, finishing the session up 4,2%. The share of the group, which is about to present the new models at the Geneva Motor Show today, is the best in the automotive sector in Europe (Eurostoxx Auto only +0,6%) and it was for the whole of last week (+6,7 .1,5% versus -XNUMX%). There is optimism for the February sales data, which will be announced after markets are closed tonight.
Thanks to the ongoing rally, the stock is rapidly recovering ground from the lows of the year which led to accumulating an overall loss of 40% on the minimum price of 9 February at 5,07 euros. Now the decline is reduced to 24%. In Frankfurt Volkswagen gains 3,3%, BMW rises by 1,5%. Among the other industrial stocks, StM rises by 1,1%, Finmeccanica +2%.
It was Yoox's day in luxury (+5,1%). The company has confirmed the targets on synergies with Net-a-Porter quantified since 2018 at approximately 85 million per year.
SAIPEM SUPERSTAR, SARAS SLOWS DOWN AFTER THE COUNTS
On the oil front, Eni is still positive +1,8%, supported by Citigroup, which raised its rating to Buy from Neutral. Equita also promoted the oil group's accounts by raising the rating to Buy from the previous Hold. Conversely, Exane BNP Paribas confirms the negative Underperform rating with a target price limited by 3% to 11,30 euros.
Tenaris gains 2,2%, Saipem +5,5%, best stock in the Ftse Mib basket. Saras closes up 2,6% at 1,485 euros. In the afternoon, immediately after announcing the accounts for the fourth quarter of 2015, the share slipped to 1,431 euros. The results were slightly lower than market expectations, with an adjusted Ebitda of 130 million euro, against the 133 indicated by the consensus of analysts. In the same period of the previous year the adjusted EBITDA had been 106 million.
In great evidence Trevi (+4,53%), which recently obtained a contract for the restoration of the Mosul dam. Yesterday, the United States warned its citizens to prepare to leave Iraq in case the dam, the largest in Iraq, were to give way. The Italian company was yesterday included in Mediobanca's short portfolio. Enel advances by 0,5%, with a net decrease of Telecom Italia -1,8%.
CARIGE SHINES, NEW THUMP OF MPS
Fight the banks. Among the stocks in decline, the 4,41% drop of Monte Paschi stands out. On the contrary, Banca Carige shines (+4,52%). According to rumors, the bank could be targeted again by Cariparma, the Italian subsidiary of the Crédit Agricole group which is already present in Liguria through Carispezia. During February, Toscafund Asset Management accumulated a stake of 5,119% of the capital. slight progress of 0,3%.
Unicredit gains 1,6%, Intesa +0,1%, Ubi +1,6%. Banco Popolare also did well (+2,5%). Pop Bank. Milan -0,8%.
MEDIOBANCA PROMOTES POSTE, FINCANTIERI TO BE SALED
The new Mediobanca portfolio indications arrived yesterday. Poste Italiane (+1,1%) was included, together with Saras, in the Long/Short Recommended Portfolio, replacing Banco Popolare and Finmeccanica. The Long Portfolio also includes Autogrill, Cerved and Sias.
Fincantieri entered the shorts yesterday. The Norwegian subsidiary Vard closed 2015 with a loss of 1,29 billion Norwegian crowns, from a profit of 50 million in the same period of 2014.
According to the broker, Ferragamo is also to be sold, instead included by Equita in the basket of securities to buy. Sell also for Landi Renzo, Piaggio and Trevi.
