A sharp decline in gold and the parallel strengthening of the dollar mark the start of the financial week. Both phenomena are the logical consequence of the strong growth in US employment (943 more jobs in July) announced on Friday evening. Faced with these numbers, it is the general opinion, it is assumed that the Fed will proceed with the "tapering" (ie the reduction of the purchases of securities on the market), probably as early as September. Hence the response of the markets which, tonight, targeted safe-haven assets, starting with gold, which fell to 1.739 dollars an ounce, and silver, to its lowest since November. The euro-dollar is close to the lows for the period at 1,175.
CHINESE INFLATION AT 1,1%, GOLDMAN EXPECTS GDP AT 8,3%
The stock markets are holding up better, also because two major markets of the caliber of Tokyo and Singapore are closed today. The feeling is that the mini-tightening by the monetary authorities could be offset by the excellent profits arriving from the quarterly reports.
The CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzen, after the initial decline, gains 1,3%.
On the macro front, inflation rose by 1,1% on a year-on-year basis, against the +0,8% estimated by the consensus. Producer prices, communicated tonight by the Statistics Office, signal an increase of 9%, more than expected, also linked to the difficulties created by bottlenecks: in the TV service, Bloomberg writes, he warned that the government will not tolerate speculation in chip supplies.
A Goldman Sachs report cuts China's GDP estimate in 2021 to +8,3%, from +8,6% due to the Delta variant.
BYTEDANCE TRYING AGAIN: TIK TOK ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE IN 2022
Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0,9%. The Financial Times wrote that Bytedance has taken over the listing project on this list. The TikTok app company would aim to close the IPO around the first months of 2022. Beijing's tightening on tech companies has caused losses of 87 billion dollars.
The Korean Kospi fell slightly on the eve of Samsung's announcements. The Seoul giant is expected to announce the braying of smartphone prices on Wednesday, including the latest foldable model.
US FUTURES CONTRAST. TODAY THE BIONTECH ACCOUNTS
Wall Street futures contrasted. Anthony Fauci said he expected full approval by the health authorities of the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines by the end of the month: to date, the FDA has given an emergency green light. The quarterly of Biontech, the German company that shares the m-Rna anti Covid -19 vaccine with Pfizer, will be released today.
WEAK OIL. ARAMCO PROFITS DOUBLE
Reasoning linked to the spread of the virus, in its most contagious variant, is depressing oil: WTI is down 1,5% to 67 dollars a barrel.
Oil giant Saudi Aramco announced that its net profit in the first half of this year increased by 103% compared to the same period in 2020. Profit in the second quarter reached $25,5 billion, up from $6,6. 2020 billion in XNUMX
THE MACRO DARI: US INFLATION AND GERMAN ZEW
Spotlight on US inflation this week, the last step before the Fed's decisions. According to forecasts, the data released by the department from Washington on Wednesday should show a slowdown in the price race (seen up by 0,5% against 0,9% in June).
On the political front, a decisive week for the unblocking of the infrastructure plan promoted by President Biden.
In Europe, the most awaited news concerns the German Zew index. According to the most pessimistic, see the analysts of Oxford Economics, the index that measures business confidence could fall below 50 points. The inconveniences in supplies to companies weigh heavily with repercussions especially in the car sector. Data on the trade balance beyond the Rhine is also on the way.
Even the United Kingdom, after Euroland, is preparing to update the data on GDP. Forecasts speak of +4,8%, a significant increase but lower than the Italian one. The sporting summer rule continues to apply: “Oh not Italy again!”.
EU FUNDS HAVE ARRIVED FOR THE PNRR
The first installment of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) will arrive today in the coffers of the Italian Treasury. A transfer from Brussels of 25 billion out of the 191,5 billion expected by 2026 which will end up in a double treasury account of the Ministry of Economy. From there it will go to local authorities and ministries who will have to translate it into projects and investments: 105 in just 5 months.
BOT AUCTION FOR 7 BILLION, FALCK ACCOUNTS TODAY
The decline in yields on Italian government bonds continues, to the delight of the Treasury. On Wednesday 11 August 7 billion euro of 12-month BOTs will be auctioned. This was announced by the Ministry of the Economy and Finance, specifying that "following the absence of specific cash requirements" the quarterly BOT will not be offered.
The Piazza Affari calendar today includes the half-year report of Falck Renewables, followed by the conference call with analysts. The trend of bank stocks should be followed: Mps, after the start of a new investigation promoted by the Milan prosecutor's office; pm and Bper after the strong double-digit increases in Friday's session.
WALT DISNEY GOES ON ON WALL STREET
Berkshire Hathaway's rich quarterly is under scrutiny on Wall Street. During the week, pay attention to Amc, one of the most followed titles by day traders, and to the accounts of Coinbase, the listed platform for buying and selling Bitcoins. Attention also to the accounts of Walt Disney, a thermometer sensitive to the effects of the Delta variant on consumption.
Also pay attention to the presentation of Ford's programs, which comes after the new rules dictated by the White House on cars; in 2030 at least half of the turnover will have to come from electricity.
Meanwhile, Foxconn, the Taiwan giant that produces the iPhone, will bring together analysts to illustrate the progress of its electric car.
