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Diary of the earthquake, De Nardis (Nomisma): the crisis puts the rebound effect at risk

Recovery usually comes after disasters, but this situation can undermine expectations – “There is double concern – observes Sergio De Nardis, chief economist of Nomisma – today we have a situation of continuing uncertainty in an area that was handling the crisis well, an area that represents 1,5% of employment in Italian manufacturing”.

Diary of the earthquake, De Nardis (Nomisma): the crisis puts the rebound effect at risk

The countdown for the euro seems to have already started, but in Emilia today the concern is even higher. The affected area is highly industrialized, export oriented and part of a value chain that is currently broken. What future awaits these areas?

"The concern is double - observes Sergio De Nardis, chief economist of Nomisma - today we have a situation of continuing uncertainty in an area that was handling the crisis well, an area that represents 1,5% of employment in the Italian manufacturing sector. So we have immediate damage that will also have repercussions on the national GDP in the first half of the year. These companies are part of a chain, they are often suppliers to other companies and even if they are the best in their field, they are at a standstill and therefore cannot fulfill their tasks. They are very likely to lose their customers, for a while or forever. Today, another concern is being added to this concern, namely the increasingly acute crisis of the euro. A catastrophe always brings with it a rebound effect, a recovery after a fall, but in the current perspective this recovery could be further penalized. If the roof of the house is too low, standing is impossible”.

THE VICTIMS BUDGET IS GROWING – The earthquake kills in many ways, always cruel though. Two other women have passed away in recent days who can be added to the 26 victims counted so far. Yesterday the saddest story: Martina Aldi, 38 years old, with a job at Acqua e Sapone and a baby on the way, died. After the shock of May 29, in Finale Emilia, where she lived with her partner, Martina's future fell into the crater of the earthquake. Her heart, subject to arrhythmias, could not handle the stress: she had a cardiac arrest, she lost her baby, she went into a coma and yesterday she died at the Baggiovara hospital.

 The death of a 64-year-old woman residing in the province of Modena and displaced in Cervia, where she died in the night between Friday and Saturday due to legionellosis, is also to some extent attributable to the earthquake. The health authorities have ordered the reclamation of the two hotels where the woman had slept, but only as a preventive measure. In fact, legionella has an incubation that can last up to ten days and it is not known where the unfortunate sixty-year-old has contracted the infection. 

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