The party can wait. After Friday's optimism, caution has returned to reign over the markets. The news comes from China that Xi does not intend to sign the mini agreement reached last week on agricultural duties and purchases if Washington does not undertake to cancel the tariff increase set for December 15th, the US does not hear us for now .
Cold shower also on Brexit: several EU countries hold back in the face of the concessions guaranteed in London to avoid a dramatic fracture. While awaiting confirmation of agreements, announced too many times but never concluded, the markets are slowing down: oil is falling, despite the war that has once again inflamed Syria and fully involved Turkey.
And while awaiting the assembly of the Mondial Bank and the Monetary Fund, a precise signal arrives from Stockholm: the prize for Economics was awarded to three economists (Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer) for their studies on extreme poverty and ways to eradicate it. In this context, the stock exchanges marked time this morning.
The exception is Tokyo (+1,7%), closed yesterday for holidays. The Seoul Kospi slows down (+0,1%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the game, the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists lose 0,3%.
PIG RAISES INFLATION, BUT THE ECONOMY IS HOLDING BACK
In China, inflation rose to its five-year high in September, +3% yoy, due to the sharp increase in the price of pork. But producer prices recorded another drop, -1,2% last month, as well as being the lowest in the last three years: the drop acts as a brake on the entire global industrial system.
The data on GDP will be released on Friday: it is not excluded that growth will fall below 6%.
After five consecutive days of appreciation, the yuan weakened this morning on expectations of a new round of expansionary measures by the Chinese authorities.
The effects of Columbus Day were felt, a holiday that halted operations on the US bond market and conditioned Wall Street, inert for almost the whole day: Dow Jones -0,11%, S&P 500 -0,14% . NASDAQ -0,1%.
MANY IPOS FOR BUBBLED SECURITIES
The number of initial public offerings for unprofitable companies has reached tech bubble levels of 20 years ago. This is revealed in a new report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Brent oil is down 0,8% to $58,9 a barrel, closing down 1,7% last night.
The Turkish lira falls but does not collapse: 5,94 against the dollar (-0,85).
The euro against the dollar was stable this morning at 1,1028.
EUROLAND: INDUSTRY IS IMPROVING, BUT THE EXCHANGES ARE DROPPING
Even in Europe, after Friday's euphoria, prudence prevailed on the markets, also justified by the closure of the US bond market. To impress a note of pessimism on the future of old Europe, which is watching the Kurdish tragedy on the price lists almost helplessly. Spain took care of it, with the violent clashes in Barcelona after the heavy sentences inflicted by the Supreme Court of Spain on 13 separatists.
Scotland is also sharpening its weapons: a referendum is looming to vote for independence from London after leaving the EU. Industrial production in Euroland is improving (+0,4% in September) but the markets are not impressed: the sharp drop in oil prices marks the session.
Piazza Affari lost 0,3%, falling to 22.097 points.
All in red at the end of the European lists: Frankfurt -0,21%. Germany has developed new rules for the creation of 5G mobile networks which, in open defiance of the United States, will not exclude the Chinese giant Huawei Technologies.
The German economy is unlikely to slip into a prolonged recession even if weak growth remains, according to the economy ministry. Germany's leading economic institutes have reduced their growth estimates to 0,5% this year and 1,1% in 2020. Berlin will publish its forecasts this week. In April, estimates indicated an increase of 0,5% in 2019 and 1,5% in 2020.
ANXIETY ABOUT DUTIES EVEN FOR SWISS PHARMA
Paris -0,4%; Madrid -0,38%; London -0,46%. Queen Elizabeth indicated in her speech to the Commons the agenda of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's political programme: Brexit by 31 October; a new agreement with the European Union; a series of domestic policies designed to gain voter support ahead of probable elections.
Northern Ireland's Unionist Party has criticized Boris Johnson's overtures on the border with the European Union, while EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has said Britain's latest proposals are too vague to be considered a starting point.
The worst is Zurich (-0,47%) even if, for now, the threat of US tariffs on the import of Swiss pharma has subsided. Roche and Novartis close in the red (-0,84%).
Bond markets have little movement, also due to the closure of US markets for the Columbus Day holiday.
SPREAD STILL DOWN TO 137 POINTS
The yield on the 0,913-year BTP fell to 0,94% from 137% on Friday. The spread also narrows to 139 points from 0,47 on Friday. The XNUMX-year Bund trades at -XNUMX%.
CDB LEADS THE CHARGE OF THE OVER 80s: GEDI +15%
Gedi in Carlo De Benedetti's sights, Leonardo Del Vecchio attacking Mediobanca, Luciano Benetton engaged in Atlantia-Alitalia. And finally Mediaset's campaign in Spain, behind which Silvio Berlusconi's always combative shadow hangs over. In short, Piazza Affari remains firmly in the hands of four young men aged 84-85. “In Italy there are many people who give up, few who dare”, is the comment in an interview with Corriere della Sera by the engineer De Benedetti.
He is the architect of the fireworks on the +14% at the center of the De Benedetti family saga. Cir deems Carlo De Benedetti's offer for a 29.9% stake in Gedi manifestly inadmissible as it is totally inadequate to recognize the real value of the stake to the shareholders and to ensure sustainable long-term prospects. In response, the Engineer accuses the children of "not knowing how to be publishers" and of having tried several times to sell and proposes to allocate the shares of Repubblica to a Foundation.
MEDIOBANCA +0,3%. DORIS SIDES WITH NAGEL
Calm day for Mediobanca (+0,3%). Vincent Bolloré (shareholder with 7,85%) and Ennio Doris (3,7%) took sides in favor of the managing director Alberto Nagel.
MEDIASET HOLDS AFTER THE STOP IN SPAIN
Mediaset +1% after the court suspended the decision of the assembly on the Dutch holding aimed at the creation of a European TV pole on Friday. According to one analyst, the price reaction indicates that the market expected the deal to fail.
ATLATIA UNCHANGED, NEIN FROM LUFTHANSA TO ALITALIA
Atlantia unchanged. The board has decided to convene a new meeting today on the Alitalia issue on 15 October. Atlantia will continue talks with Ferrovie and the other investors in the coming days to try to reach at least a preliminary agreement. Lufthansa, meanwhile, has reiterated that it is interested in an industrial but not a financial agreement.
TENARIS IN THE SIGHTS OF ANALYSTS
The decline in Piazza Affari is in part linked to the decline in oil prices, pressed by the judgments of the rating companies.
Saipem lost hits (-1,3%). Mediobanca raises its rating to Outperform, target price at 5,5 euro.
Much worse Tenaris (-2,9%), affected by Mediobanca's cut from buy to neutral (target at 11 euros from 14,20). Equita confirmed the Hold recommendation, reducing the target price to 12 euro from 13,0. Kepler finally confirmed the Buy, but lowered the target price to 12 euros from 13,50 euros.
Eni -0,9%.
UNICREDIT HOLDS BACK ON NEGATIVE INTERESTS
A slight decrease for the banks. Unicredit corrects the recent increases (-0,5%) but modestly; a spokesman said the negative rates would only apply on deposits over one million euros. Banca Akros has lowered the recommendation from buy to accumulate, with a target price of 2,5 euros.
On the other hand, purchases continue on Banco Bpm (+1,5%) and Ubi (+0,15%), candidates for a merger; over the weekend, the Banco's CEO reiterated that the institution is not currently evaluating any operation.
Asset management sales with FinecoBank and Banca Generali down by around 2%.
FCA, LET'S TALK ABOUT RENAULT. RED TO TELECOM
FCA up +0,6%, after the surprise change in Renault's CEO: Thierry Bolloré was against the merger with the Italian-American group.
Down Cnh Industrial (-1,6%). In the industrial plan to 2024 of the subsidiary Iveco, investments of 4,2 billion dollars are foreseen globally.
Telecom Italia +0,6%. The former general manager of the Bank of Italy Salvatore Rossi is in pole position as president of Equita writes that during a roadshow with the investor relator, the company confirmed that it aims to reach an initial agreement within the year for the creation of a single telephone network with Open Fiber.
Juventus (+3,94%) and Amplifon (+2,53%) were also highlighted. Great ferment among the titles of the Aim. Iervolino Entertainment +11%. SosTravel +18%. Confinvest +8,6%. Bio-On scores a theoretical +20%.
