The Davos forum was one of the symbols of globalization, not surprisingly a privileged target of non-global protests. This year's edition scheduled for next week promises to offer a reflection of the difficulties of the current situation. There will be no Donald Trump, who has decided to suspend the trip so as not to burden the federal budget, frozen due to the tug of war between the president and Congress.
BUT WE GO BACK TO TAxES ON EUROPEAN CARS
Instead, there will be Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary who electrified the markets yesterday by anticipating the possible end of sanctions on China on the occasion of the Washington meeting with Liu He (Xi's right-hand man for trade) set for January 30 and 31 . The Wall Street Journal reported the news, adding, however, that part of the administration (see trade manager Robert Lightizer) does not agree at all. Complicating the picture was the Treasury's subsequent denial reported by CBS. On the other hand, the president's staff is once again talking about duties on European cars. The chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Chuck Grassley, said that the White House intends to move forward with the process that will lead to the imposition of sanctions and tariffs on automobiles. In short, there is a great mess under the sky of the global economy.
PLUS SIGN FOR ALL ASIAN EXCHANGES
Asian markets, meanwhile, prefer to see the glass half full. The positive development of the confrontation between the United States and China is fueling the rise of almost all stock exchanges in Asia: Tokyo's Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +1%, Shanghai's CSI300 and Shenzhen +1,1% , Kospi of Seoul +0,6%.
The dollar rose again, in the fourth session it was positive against the yen at 109,4. Dollar Yuan crosses at 6,77. The yuan at 6,77 against the US currency was less reactive: the indictment of the top management of Huawei, under investigation in the United States for theft of corporate information, is looming. Markets are weighed on by expectations of fourth-quarter GDP growth data, scheduled for Monday.
MORGAN STANLEY BRAKES ON WALL STREET
The tariff game also dominated the scene on Wall Street: Dow Jones +0,67, S&P 500 +0,76%. The Nasdaq is also up +0,71%. The Treasury's denial caused a slowdown in the final stages.
Negative after Morgan Stanley accounts (-4,4%). Defense stocks rose sharply after Trump announced his intention to finance a new anti-missile defense program: Northrop Grumman up 3,3%, Lockheed Martin up 2,4%.
MORE SUBSCRIBERS, BUT NETFLIX SLIDES AFTER THE STOCK MARKET (-4%)
Netflix slips (-4%) after the Stock Exchange despite brilliant accounts, the increase in subscribers and optimistic forecasts for the current year. In the fourth quarter of 2018, net income was $134 million, down from $186 million in the same period in 2017. Earnings per share fell to 30 cents from 41 cents, still above the consensus. Between October and December Netflix said it had registered 8,8 million new subscribers who pay for the service offered by the company, an annual increase of 33% and above the 7,6 million expected by the group but below the 9,2 million of the most demanding predictions.
Brent-type oil closed down 0,3% this morning, up 1% to $61,8. At Piazza Affari Saipem -0,7%. Eni -0,2%.
HARD BREXIT, CORBYN SAYS NO
Flat or almost flat price lists in the Eurozone, held back by the profit warning of Société Générale (-5,66%), which cast a shadow over the start of the accounting campaign, and by developments in Brexit, the most serious crisis in the United Kingdom for at least half a century. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn's no to the hard Brexit has reduced fears about the increasingly chaotic developments of the pending situation of plan B that Prime Minister May will have to present in Parliament on Monday.
BUSINESS PLACE CLOSES IN EQUAL
Piazza Affari closed almost in parity: -0.04% at 19.470 points, settling on the maximum for 6 weeks. Similar script in Madrid (-0,02%). Weak Frankfurt (-0,14%) and Paris (-0,34%). London -0,4%.
On the macro front, the good health of the Italian trade balance should be noted, in November it recorded a surplus of 3,843 billion compared to 4,668 billion in the same month of 2017. Imports rose by 3,4% and imports by 1%.
THE COLLECTION OF GOVERNMENT BONDS CONTINUES, SPREAD TO 257
Another day of recovery for the Italian bond, after the success of the placement for 10 billion euro of the new 15-year BTP. The yields of some segments of the curve thus fell to the lows of several months.
The spread between Btp and Bund on the ten-year stretch narrowed in the session up to 254 basis points and then closed at 257 from 259 on the eve and from 272 on Tuesday evening.
The yield on the Italian stock touched an intraday low just above 2,7%, then stopping at 2,76%. The two-year rate fell below 0,3% during the day, to its lowest level since the end of May, and the 5-year rate slipped to its lowest level in the last six months.
The rally also affected other markets on the periphery of the euro zone: Spain, which placed 4,6 billion euros with yields below previous auctions and Greece, after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras passed the no-confidence vote unscathed Parliament.
MILAN TOASTS CAMPARI +4,1%
The best stock on the list was Campari (+4,1%), with a new historical record of 7,9150 euros, on the wave of the rise in American consumption of wine (+0,4%) and spirits (+1,9 .2018%) against a decline in beer sales. The stock also closed 14 on a positive note with a 16% gain, in stark contrast to the -XNUMX% recorded by the FtseMib index.
BANKS CONTRESTED, THE FUTURE OF MPS IS IN DISCUSSION
In Piazza Affari the banking sector held up better than the rest of Europe held back by SocGen and by the echo of the disappointing accounts of Morgan Stanley: the sector index fell by 0,7% against -1,2%.
Banca Carige has forwarded to the Treasury the request for a public guarantee on newly issued bonds. Minister Giovanni Tria confirmed this yesterday, hoping for a "private solution" to the crisis for the Ligurian institute.
The hypothesis of a possible intervention in Mps (-0,9%) held back Ubi (-0,9%) and Banco Bpm (-0,5%). The League would like to proceed with another injection of money into the institution, preparatory to a merger: according to the project, the Sga could buy MPS's non-performing loans at a "reasonable" price, thus limiting the need for capital at less of 2 billion. If Sga also bought NPLs from the potential buyer of the bank, 2,5-3 billion would be needed.
Realizations on managed savings pending the new law on Pir: Fineco -1,7%, Azimut -1,6%. Little move Generali (+0,2%): Citigroup reduced the recommendation from neutral to sell.
CHINESE ADVANCE ON CNH, TAIWAN WEIGHTS ON STM
The auto sector is down (Euro Stoxx Auto -1,1%), after the chairman of the Senate Finance Commission, Chuck Grassley, spoke of duties on cars: Donald Trump is said to be about to introduce them, to push Europe to accept a new trade agreement with the United States.
Fiat-Chrysler -0,4%. On the other hand, Cnh Industrial rose (+1,15%) on the wave of rumors of an interest by the Chinese Geely in some of the company's assets.
Stm fell (-1,9%) on the wave of the profit warning of Tsmc, Taiwanese supplier of Apple.
IMA TAKES FLIGHT (+5,5%), AWARDED BY EXANE
On the day of BoD dedicated to the industrial plan guidelines Telecom Italia rebounds (+2%).
On the other hand, Mediaset fell sharply, dropping 3,26% after BOFA's downgrade to "underperform" from "neutral" with a target of 1,7 from 4 euros.
The leap of Ima (+5,5%) should be noted. Exane Paribas promoted world leader in packaging machinery manufacturing to Outperform from Neutral. Target raised to 66 euros from 59 euros.
