"We are laying the groundwork for a monumental deal with China." Thus Donald Trump has instilled the daily note of optimism in the markets, pushed to new highs even if the president has announced that it will still take 3-4 weeks for an agreement. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the head of the Chinese negotiating delegation, declared himself very satisfied with the work carried out in the last round of negotiations. The markets are thus starting to close a positive week awaiting today's US labor market data.
Confirming the bullish stance of the White House comes the choice of a new member of the Fed board: Herman McCain, former owner of the Godfather Pizza chain, a Republican friend of Trump, firmly convinced that growth does not generate inflation: in Congress we it will be battle on his name, given the allegations of sexual harassment that have hampered his political career. But this will not stop Trump, who is determined to lend a hand "my good friend from Kansas City".
Asian stock markets advanced cautiously this morning. The appeal is missing China, Hong Kong and Taiwan on holiday for the Ching Ming holiday. The stock markets of Japan +0,3%, South Korea +0,1% and India +0,3% rose, while the Australian stock market fell (-0,5%).
THE 5 G NETWORK STARTS IN KOREA
It should be noted that the 5G network has been operating throughout Korea since yesterday. On the other hand, economists report with disappointment that in Japan the growth in employment is not followed by the increase in wages, a premise for the increase in consumption and inflation: wages in February fell by 1,1% due to the decline in corporate bonuses.
The Indian rupee trades at 69,1 in the aftermath of the central bank's rate cut: yesterday the currency lost 1%. The dollar is slightly down against the yen.
US EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS TODAY
Prudence also prevailed on Wall Street pending the data on jobs (177.000 new jobs expected). The Dow Jones closed up 0,6%, the S&P500 up 0,2% to new highs. Nasdaq down 0,1%. Technology stocks retraced, but not Facebook (+1,4%).
In sharp decline Tesla (-8%). In the first quarter of the year, vehicles sold were only 63.000, down sharply from 90.966 in the fourth quarter of 2018. The 31% drop is also due to distribution problems, particularly serious for the new Model 3 Sedan. The company confirmed its 2019 registration targets at 360-400 vehicles.
THE FORMER MRS BEZOS COLLECTS 36 BILLION
Amazon -0,1%. Yesterday Jeff Bezos and Cynthia Mc Kenzie advised the most expensive divorce settlement in history. The ex-wife gets Amazon shares for 36 billion dollars (25% of the couple's total) but the right to vote remains with Bezos.
Boeing rises +2,9% even if safety problems are growing: the investigation in Ethiopia on the crash of the 737 ruled out errors by the pilots who, on the contrary, performed all the operations foreseen by the company.
Volatility at lows for Brent oil, yesterday evening it closed flat at 69,4 dollars a barrel, it has not moved from there. At Piazza Affari Eni-1%. Saipem-1%, Tenaris-1,7%.
DECISIVE WEEKEND TO AVOID BREXIT
The euro dollar has moved little in the last few hours, this morning it is at 1,122, stuck at its lowest level for a month, weakened by signs of weakness in the German economy.
The pound yesterday lost 0,5% against the euro, this morning the exchange rate is practically unchanged at 0,857. Meetings between Labor and Conservatives on Brexit should continue today. Yesterday Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May spoke for over four hours, the premier said it was a productive conversation
BUSINESS PLACE SETS TIME, FRANKFURT AT HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER
Piazza Affari -0,23%, at 21.724 points, marked time. In positive territory Madrid (+0,45%). Paris -0,09%; London -0,19%. During the session Frankfurt (11.988 at the end) broke through 12 points for the first time since 8 October last year. Since the beginning of the year, the progress is 14%.
The expectation of a trade peace between the US and China is a tonic for the world's economy more sensitive to exports, so much so that the news that five German economic research institutes, including the Ifo, have cut the estimates of Germany's GDP growth in 2019 at +0,8%. Six months ago, the same subjects estimated an average of +1,9%.
SPAIN HELPS THE BTP, THE BOT OFFER TODAY
After a negative start, Italian paper ended a volatile session in positive territory. The market reversed course after the Spanish auction, in which Madrid placed around 3,5 billion in bonds maturing in October 2021 and April 2029 and an indexed one in November 2027. France instead placed 9 billion in bonds maturing in May 2029 , May 2034 and May 2050.
In closing, the yield differential between Italy and Germany on the ten-year stretch narrowed to 252 basis points, from 255 at the previous closure.
The 2,51-year BTP rate stands at 2,54%, after closing at 12% yesterday. Today the Treasury will announce the quantities of 2020-month Treasuries, maturing in April 10, to be auctioned on XNUMX April.
ECB MINUTES: LOW RATES THREAT BANKS
At their summit on 7 March, the ECB officials discussed the risks that low interest rates represent for banks. This is what emerges from the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting in which it was decided to postpone an initial rate hike to next year. “There have long been concerns that the effects of low interest rates for an extended period could harm interest margins and bank profitability, with long-term adverse effects on banking intermediation and financial stability,” the reports read. .
THE PORTION OF DEBT IN FOREIGN HANDS DOWN TO 25%.
The amount of Italian public debt held abroad is equal to 465 billion, or 24% of the total. Since the middle of last year, foreign investors have reduced the share of Italian securities in their portfolios and the current level is historically very low: at the end of 2018 the figure was equal to 578 billion (30% of the total). The figure, including the assets held by investors domiciled abroad for tax reasons (see Irish or Luxembourg funds) results from a study by Chiara Cremonesi of Unicredit.
MARKET PLACE WAITS FOR MUSTIER'S GERMAN BLITZ
At the center of attention on the European markets is the possible sinking of Unicredit -0,7% closing on Commerzbank +2,80%, on the basis of a project revealed yesterday by the Financial Times. The institute is ready to take the field if the hypothesis of an all-German merger with Deutsche Bank vanishes. Unicredit aims to take a significant stake in Commerzbank, the first step in a larger operation, the ultimate goal would be that of a merger between the old HypoVereinsbank, now within Unicredit, and Commerzbank.
But it will only be discussed after the possible failure of the negotiations with Deutsche Bank. For now, Unicredit is the official response, focused on the turnaround that closes this year and which is based on organic growth. The new plan will be presented in London on 3 December. Commerzbank's board of directors must instead decide on April 9 whether to speed up contacts with Deutsche Bank or withdraw, wrote the German financial weekly Wirtschaftswoche on Wednesday.
The other banks were positive: Ubi +1,62%, Intesa Sanpaolo +0,74%, Banco Bpm +0,49%.
Azimut +0,1% in assets under management: Kepler-Cheuvreux strengthened the Buy rating, raising the target price to 18 euros from 16 euros
TECH IN FLIGHT ALSO IN MILAN: STM SUPER
Even in Europe, as on Wall Street, the race for chips continued: STM rose by 1.64% after the flight the day before, supported by expectations of a US-China agreement on tariffs.
Leonardo also increased (+0,38%): Banca Imi confirmed the add rating, raising the target price to 12,2 euros from 12,1.
SALONE DEL MOBILE AND VINITALY PUSH FIERA AND MASI
The prospect of an agreement on trade, combined with the expected success of the Salone del Mobile, have given Fiera Milano wings (+9,53%).
On the eve of Vinitaly, Masi Agricola goes up (+2,6%), leader in the production of fine wines, is up by 2,6% to 3,94 euros.
Weak Fiat Chrysler (-0,3%). There are no formal and specific negotiations with PSA Peugeot, says Carlos Tavares, the CEO of the French group.
The Juventus title shines (+2,02%) in the Agnelli stable: the eighth Scudetto in a row is on its way.
ANALYST DIVIDED ABOUT THE A2A PLAN
New minus sign for A2A (-2,21%) which follows the -2,61% decrease recorded after the presentation of the new business plan on Wednesday. Analysts have given conflicting opinions on the numbers and prospects presented by management. MainFirst cut the target price to 1,60 euro from 1,70 euro. Neutral judgment confirmed. Fidentiis has raised to 1,85 euros from 1,75 euros. Judgment Buy confirmed.
Italgas is also down: -0,86% on the day of the shareholders' meeting.
