Back to grow the Italian GDP, while employment, despite encouraging signs, remains very far from pre-crisis levels. To say it is the Study Center of Confindustria which revised upwards its GDP estimates for the current year and the next +0,8% (against +0,5% in the last report) for 2015 and +1,4% (from 1,1% ) for 2016.
The country, therefore, is out of the recession: "the recovery has begun, but it will be long and difficult, therefore the word recovery is inappropriate, even politically: it is to be avoided", despite the fact that "favorable winds" continue to blow. In any case, to return to pre-crisis levels, GDP will take until 2022, at this rate.
GDP growth also brings with it an increase inemployment, which will rise by 0,5% in 2015 and by 1% in 2016, thus returning to the levels of 2012. Despite this, compared to pre-crisis levels, at the end of the two-year period the jobs there will be 1 million 333 thousand less.
Improvements on the front deficit, which fell from 3% in 2014 to 2% in 2016 while the primary balance rises to 2,3% from 1,6%. The incidence of public debt on GDP has decreased from 132,7% this year to 131,9% next year. The deficit/GDP ratio, on the other hand, will settle at 2,7% in 2015, also due to almost the effect of the disbursements connected with the sentence of the Constitutional Court on the indexation of pensions.
They grow up household consumption, whose spending rose 0,3% in 2014, after two consecutive annual declines. An increase, according to the CSC, destined to continue: +0,6% in 2015 and +1,2% in 2016″. Even in this case, however, the comparison with pre-crisis levels shows a significant decrease, -7,8%.
Investments are also on the increase this year, with an acceleration next year: +1,2% in 2015 and +2,9% in 2016, mainly thanks to the purchase of machinery and means of transport.
