Collapsing opening for Milan. Just an hour after the start of trading, Piazza Affari is the worst European stock exchange, down by 2,82%. The other main markets of the Old Continent were also negative: Frankfurt lost 2,28%, Paris 1,84%, London 1,70%. Meanwhile, bad news is coming for our country also on the bond front: the spread has risen to 486 points, while yields on ten-year BTPs have once again exceeded 6,7%.
MONTI GOVERNMENT AT TAKE OFF, SPAIN OF RAJOY LEAVES
TEST FOR THE NEW EUROPE. THE FINMECCANICA CASE EXPLODES
First council of ministers of the government led by Mario Monti, on the eve of European missions of the premier, admitted in law and in fact in the Franco-German control room in need of new ideas to face the crisis. The first anti-crisis move could see the light at the meeting in Palazzo Chigi: an increase in the VAT rate and a parallel reduction of the first two income tax brackets to 22 and 26 percent.
At the same time, in Madrid the popular celebrate the predictable victory of the new premier Mariano Rajoy. What effects will the two events on the remote duel have on the spread with the Bund? Will there be the overtaking of the BTP's credibility with respect to the Spanish bono? In reality, between now and December 9, when yet another European summit should kick off the rules for budgetary surveillance, all government bonds risk new turbulence, alternating with short and ephemeral recovery, on the sovereign debt front. Meanwhile, on Wednesday the Commission launches the six pack, a series of proposals on the supervision of state budgets which could also represent the first step towards Eurobonds (or its more reduced formula, stability bonds).
FORECAST. The front of the problems remains compact. The meeting between Angela Merkel and the British piemie David Cameron confirmed the distance that separates London and Washington, which are asking for robust interventions to stop the crisis, and Berlin. The US, paralyzed by the budget, has little room for manoeuvre. Futures suggest a negative start for the European Stock Exchanges and Wall Street. Meanwhile, the Asian lists are in the red: the Nikkei 225 loses 0,29%, the Hang Seng 1,94%.
THE CASE. Stormy weather on the Finmeccanica front. After the severe reception of the market to the company's accounts, it is now the turn of the judicial emergency which suggests a very difficult start to the week in Piazza Affari
EARTHQUAKE AT FINMECCANICA'S TOP MANAGEMENT: BORGOGNI LEAVES
GUARGUAGLINI CALLS THE BOD "IN THE SHORTEST TIMES"
The Chairman of Finmeccanica, Pier Francesco Guarguaglini, reads a note from the holding company "declares that he has instructed the secretariat of the Board of Directors to proceed with the convening of the same in the shortest compatible timeframe". This is the epilogue of a dramatic day, punctuated by the evolution of the investigation into ENAV bribes transiting through Selex: here too, in the morning, there will be an extraordinary meeting dedicated to the "necessary decisions regarding employees and suppliers". The fate of Pier Francesco Guarguaglini and Marina Grossi, CEO of Selex, is hanging by a thread.
In the early afternoon, Lorenzo Borgogni, the alter ego of the president personally involved in the investigation, had left the scene. "With reference to the news reported by the press - the press release reads - Dr. Lorenzo Borgogni, Central Director of External Relations of Finmeccanica, despite the certainty of having operated legally, in the greatest interest and to protect the image of the Company and its Chairman , as well as in compliance with the work of the judiciary, communicated its decision to self-suspend from office until full light is shed".
BPM ACT TWO. AFTER INCREASE TO 81,7%
THE NEW ADMINISTRATOR'S FILE IS REOPENING
Bpm presents itself with a new structure among the virtual precincts of Piazza Affari. The capital increase i closed with the subscription of 81,7 per cent of the offer of 800 million. Funding stopped at 655 million, roughly half of what the Bank of Italy had calculated as the optimal value to get the Piazza Meda institution back on track (1,2 billion). In any case, a result that cannot be despised if one thinks of the troubled process of the operation, which is now missing two important pieces. First, the offer of unexercised rights which will allow Andrea Bonomi to acquire another 3 percent of the bank to stop at 9,9%, the ceiling established by law. On that occasion, other relevant private shareholders could arrive on the stage of Bpm, such as the Ricci family (Tre Marie) and the Braccos. Second, the role of the managing director remains to be defined: the time granted to general manager Enzo Chiesa by the Bank of Italy has expired.
DECISIVE DAYS FOR THE AFTER PLAIN
MORELLI FAVORITE, BAZOLI'S DOUBTS
Hot week for Banca Intesa waiting for Corrado Passera's successor. The total appointments now point towards an internal choice, which would favor the general manager Marco Morelli. Alternatively, the candidacy of Gaetano Micciché, the other general director, is ready. In Turin there are rumors of a possible vintage operation: the return to the bank of an ex like Pietro Modiano or Alfonso Iozzo. But the feeling remains that Giovanni Bazoli prefers a high-profile appointment from outside, to strengthen the bank in view of a year that promises to be, if possible, even more complicated even if both Vittorio Colao and Andrea Guerra have preferred to stay out of the fray . A complex issue, in short, which in the eyes of the markets, however, requires a solution in the short term.
EDISON. EDF TODAY IS ASKING FOR A WAIVER OF THE TAKEOVER OFFER
AGREEMENT ON VETO POWER FOR DELMI
Today the Edf request for exemption from the takeover bid for the Edison operation arrives at Consob. Meanwhile, work is in full swing to close the agreement between Edf and A2A by the end of the month, as planned. In particular, A2A allegedly requested and obtained a veto right on transactions between related parties, i.e. between Edf and Edison, a clause which guarantees that Delmi will remain in the share capital with a 30% stake. Still discussions, however, on the distribution of the Edipower debt (1,1 billion due in December) and on that of Transalpina di Energia (1,2 billion, due next September).
US BUDGET, THERE IS NO AGREEMENT IN CONGRESS
AND THE RATING AGENCIES SHARPEN THEIR WEAPONS
In the meantime, another storm is looming in the skies of global finance, in addition to that of European sovereign debt. Yesterday the leaders of the US Congress admitted that, three days before the expiry of the deadline, an agreement on the new federal budget is not in sight between Democrats, intent on approving a mix of cuts and taxes for the rich, and Republicans, firm on frontier of no to new taxes. In the event of no agreement, an automatic cut of the deficit will be carried out with the aim of a reduction of 1.200 billion lire in ten years.
In reality, the immediate impact will be very modest on a financial level given that the concrete effects will only be seen in 2013. But the political consequences will be much more marked: in fact, there will be confirmation that the US policy one year after the vote is in practice paralyzed by mutual vetoes. In summary: there is no element for a new downgrade by S&P, but the impasse could convince Moody's and Fitch to question the triple A of bonds, in any case a "safe haven" given the competition
THE EUROPEAN UNION CUTS THE BUDGET
THANKS TO UK PRESSING
While awaiting the long-awaited cuts in the cost of politics in Italy, we can celebrate the new look of the European Commission under the banner of austerity. The 2012 budget expects the costs of the European Union to rise by only 2,02%, in line with the inflation rate. At first, an increase of around 5,23% was envisaged, but the proposal was opposed by the United Kingdom which later gathered the adhesion of Germany and six other countries including, needless to say, not included Italy.
NOMURA GIVES ADVICE TO BONDHOLDERS
IN VIEW OF GREECE'S EXIT FROM THE EURO
The risk of the end of the euro is taken so seriously by Nomura that the bank has distributed a set of operating instructions to its customers. Pay attention, is the advice, to the regulation of the various loans. First of all, it is necessary to know whether the disputes will be the jurisdiction of a local court or of English law. It is even more useful to check whether the conversion of the loan from the euro to another currency is envisaged to avoid the surprise of being paid off in drachmas below cost. Nomura herself points out that only 6% of Greek issues, for an amount of 16 billion euros, come under the jurisdiction of English common law. The other creditors will deal with an Athenian court. Congratulations.
