The global economy slows down further, reports the Monetary Fund, which has limited growth from 3,1 to 3% for 2016/17. A cut in estimates caused by Brexit, explains the World Economic Outlook. The downside are the results of the US quarterly, much better than forecasts: so far 75% of companies have beaten the estimates on profits, 60% on turnover. In particular, the banks are surprising, clearly recovering despite the low rates thanks to the rebound in revenues linked to trading. The result is a stalemate: the markets, thanks to the rain of liquidity, remain close to the highs. But operators, stressed by geopolitical threats and the difficult economic situation, are not taking off for now.
As usual, the word passes to the central banks, starting tomorrow with the ECB, dealing with a double emergency: the Brexit alarm, which has already slowed down the German economy; the problem of non-performing loans and capital increases of Italian banks, still on the high seas. In this context, the markets mark time.
DOW JONES STILL RECORD, WEAK GOLDMAN SACHS
After five new all-time highs in the last six sessions, the American stock market is back slightly today: the S&P500 index falls by 0,14%, Nasdaq -0,38% crushed by the Netflix thud (-13,1%). However, the Dow Jones does not stop (+0,14%), on the eighth consecutive day of rise.
Goldman Sachs fell 1,2% after announcing a 78% jump in second-quarter earnings on lower costs and a higher contribution from bond trading. Analysts expected more.
THE CLOUD PUSHES MICROSOFT ACCOUNTS
After the Stock Exchange, Microsoft is racing: +4% thanks to the results. The excellent performance of the Intelligent Cloud division pushed the accounts. Furthermore, the explosion in cloud revenues hasn't held back sales of traditional software as feared.
Crude slightly down with the WTI which lost 59 cents to 44,65 dollars a barrel and Brent to 46,8 dollars. Significant news could come from Iraq, where the political situation is once again under tension. The premier, the Shiite Haider al Abadi, who is attempting to reshuffle the government, has accepted the resignation of five other ministers, including that of oil.
Asian stock markets did little to move this morning: in Tokyo the Nikkei index interrupts its long positive streak (-0,6%). Hong Kong +0,8%. A mixed day for the European stock exchanges, under the pressure of negative economic data and the effect of the ruling EU Court of Justice which promoted the bail-in. Futures signal a positive open in the morning.
ZEW SEES BLACK: EUROPE IN RED, MILAN -0,5%
Session in the red for Milan, which closed down by 0,53 to 16.674 points (low for the day at 16.444). Followed by Madrid (-0,5%), Paris (-0,6%) and Frankfurt (-0,8%). The only positive location was London, albeit only by 0,03%. Today Prime Minister Theresa May travels to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel: the management of Brexit is in full swing. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has been harshly contested by US journalists for his comments on Barack Obama.
Sales were fierce on Automotive (Stoxx -1,2%). the securities of credit institutions reduced the losses triggered this morning by a sentence of the EU Court which, in relation to the rescue of some Slovenian banks, established that the bail in is legitimate.
The most negative note on the macro front concerns the German Zew index relating to business confidence, which collapsed in July to -6,8 points from 19,2 in June, clearly disappointing the expectations of the consensus which expected a drop to + 9 points.
In the evening, revisions to the European Commission's growth estimates arrived and of the International Monetary Fund, which among other things revised downwards the estimates of the Italian GDP: only +0,9% in 2016, +1% in 2017.
BANKS, PROMOTED THE BAIL IN BY THE EU COURT
Although contained, the declines of the banks nonetheless characterized the session. The session was conditioned by the decision of the EU Court which established that the regulation on the bail-in of banks is not in conflict with the general principles of the European Union.
The legislation provides that banks in difficulty are not saved with public money, but with the help of shareholders, bond holders, and ultimately also account holders with deposits exceeding 100 thousand euros. The European Commissioner for Competition, Margarethe Vestager, reassured by saying that this sentence will have no repercussions on the dialogue with Italy on the measures to facilitate the recovery of the banking sector.
MPS UNDER FIRE, MOODY'S CUTS TURKISH YAPI KREDIT (UNICREDIT)
MontePaschi paid the highest price (-3,2%), while the double construction site to secure the Bank continues: Atlante's analysis of the 10 billion NPL portfolio continues and work is underway on the establishment of the consortium of investment banks to guarantee a capital increase without public support. There was also a marked decline in Popolare Milano (-1,9%) and Pop.Emilia (-0,9%).
With a leap in the final Unicredit (-0,2%) almost completely eliminated more than four percentage points of loss reaching 2,2140 euros after having scored a minimum of 2,1020 euros. In the evening, the news arrived that Moody's had placed the rating of the Turkish subsidiary Yapi Kredit under observation together with that of 16 other banks in the country in view of a possible cut.
FIAT CHRYSLER UNDER INQUIRY IN USA, FINED FOR CNH
Fiat Chrysler (-3,3%) led the declines after the news that the group is under investigation in the US for the hypothesis of spreading false data on car sales. Equita judged the matter a "false problem". The Buy judgment reiterated with a target of 9,20 euros. The stock has lost 27% since the beginning of the year. The parent company Exor loses 0,8%.
Meanwhile, the EU antitrust has fined a group of car manufacturers for 2,93 billion euros including Iveco for having created a cartel in technologies to reduce emissions. Iveco was fined 494,6 million. In addition to the company controlled by CNH Industrial (-1,5%), the Antitrust decision affects Volvo/Renault, Daimler, and Daf.
The German Man, who revealed the illegal agreement in Brussels, was pardoned. The fine will not have financial consequences for the companies involved, which have already set aside the funds to pay the fines (500 million for Iveco alone).
SAIPEM SUPERSTAR BEATS THE CASH IN POLAND
Saipem (+2% to 0,4295 euro), was the best blue chip in Piazza Affari. It is the eighth lift in nine sessions. The increase could be justified by the request for an additional payment of 49 million dollars by the consortium led by Saipem which built the new liquefied natural gas terminal in Poland at Polskie Lng.
The Baltic Sea terminal, which cost about 3 billion zlotys ($750 million), was completed last year, a year behind schedule and received its first cargo of spot gas last June. Barclays upheld the overweight rating.
BENETTON INVESTS IN HERMES AND VICTORIA'S SECRET
The luxury sector is still weak, but with two new features. Yoox revives (+1,1%), supported by the performance of Zalando (+20% in Frankfurt after announcing preliminary sales for the second quarter of 909-924 million euros, up 25% compared to a year ago). The balance sheet of Edizione Holding shows that at the end of 2015 the Benetton group purchased a 0,21% stake in Hermes, for an investment of 72 million euro (currently 69,9 million on the balance sheet), and 0,13 % in LBrands-Victoria's Secret, a well-known lingerie brand, for 34 million.
AMPLIFON SHOPPING IN GERMANY
Recordati and Amplifon did very well (+2,3%), which acquired two distribution chains in Germany, Focus Hoeren AG and Die Hoermeister GmbH. Rai Way was down (-2,55%) after Equita Sim lowered the target price on the stock to 5 from 5,2 euro, however confirming the buy rating. Both Rcs (-2,54%) and Cairo Communications (-3,82%) were down.
