"The epidemic in the country is not yet under control", warned epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, speaking in the US Senate, noting that the real number of deaths could be higher than the official figure of 81.650 deaths. The scientist's voice drowned out the protests of Elon Musk, who, backed by Donald Trump, decided to reopen the Tesla plant in California, challenging the Golden State's no. The US president, worried about the stability of the industrial system, meanwhile took sides in favor of negative rates on the eve of the hearing of Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who today should support the opposite. But the governor of the Fed of Saint Louis, James Bullard has warned that going beyond the 100 days of production shutdown and travel ban means making the recession a real depression.
ASIAN PRICE LISTS WEAK, MODI HELPS THE INDIAN STOCK
In the meantime, the signs of crisis made themselves felt on Exor: it jumped, bolt from the blue, the sale of Partner Re to the French Covéa. For now, this is the most important deal that has been missed due to the crisis: according to estimates, it will cost the reinsurance world at least 100 billion dollars.
Thus the euphoria for Phase 2 is extinguished almost everywhere, put to the test by the disturbing outcome of the attempts to return to normal. And it is in this framework that the stock market's caution is explained.
Weak Asian price lists this morning. Tokyo's Nikkei fell (-0,4%), as did the Shanghai Composite (-0,2%) and Jakarta's JSX (-0,7%). On parity the Kospi of Seoul and the Hang Seng of Kong. On the other hand, the Indian Stock Exchange rose (+1,7%), after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a program of aid to the economy for 267 billion dollars, about 10% of the country's GDP.
BLACKTOSK LEAVES 7,8%
Last night, after Fauci's message, the initial rally on Wall Street ended. The S&P 500 index, already in positive ground, closed 2% in the red. Down also the Nasdaq (-2,065%) and the Dow Jones (-1,89%). Futures are at parity this morning.
After Pnc's exit from the shareholding structure, BlackRock shares lost 7,8%.
TODAY THE WORDS GO TO THE CHAIRMAN OF THE FED
The bond market was little moved, in view of today's speech by Jerome Powell. Operators are waiting for indications on the economic situation from the president of the Federal Reserve and, above all, insights on the negative rates anticipated by the trend of the Fed funds. The options market, according to Bank of America, discounts in prices a one in four chance of a drop in rates below zero towards the end of 2020.
Brent oil is hovering around $30 a barrel: this morning it's at $29,5, down 1,5%, after gaining 1% yesterday.
SKIP PARTNER SALE RE:ELKANN DOES NOT OFFER DISCOUNTS
Today the (virtual) scoreboards of Piazza Affari will be dominated by the Parisian tear of John Elkann. For heaven's sake, not with Peugeot, on its way to the wedding with FCA, but with Covéa. The French company has reversed: it will no longer buy PartnerRe according to the terms of the Memorandum of understanding (Mou) signed on March 3, 2020. The agreed price was nine billion dollars. This was announced in a press release by the holding company of the Agnelli group, which is committed to "supporting the growth of the reinsurance company". At the origin of the fracture is the discount on the price asked by the transalpine group in the face of the difficulties faced by the reinsurance sector under the skies of the pandemic.
Exor flatly refused to the request: "The board - reads the company note - firmly reiterated that a sale of PartnerRe at lower conditions than those established in the Memorandum does not reflect the value of the company". But it is not difficult to predict the disappointment of the market, which had already metabolized the rain of liquidity and the possible returns in terms of buybacks and super coupons. At the time of the announcement, Mediobanca Securities wrote that "the operation increases the appeal of Exor on the M&A front, also in light of the spin-offs of Iveco and Fpt from CNH". Unfortunately, the pandemic has postponed, if not cancelled, this agreement as well.
LEADING BUSINESS PLACE OF THE EUROZONE, BUT -25% IN 2020
However, yesterday Piazza Affari stood out (+1,2%, 17.620 points) in a flat session for the rest of the Eurozone. This reduces the delay accumulated since the beginning of the year by the main index of the Italian Stock Exchange: -25,3%, against -22% of the Eurostoxx50 index.
There are only three blue chips (out of the 40 components of the FtseMib) that have recorded a positive performance since the beginning of January: Diasorin +40%, Recordati +17%, Nexi +12%.
MEDIOBANCA: THE EQUIVALENT OF VENETO'S GDP LOST IN 2020
However, the crisis of the real economy worsened. According to a report by the Mediobanca research area, in 2020 the Italian economy risks a loss corresponding to the GDP of the Veneto region. The drop in gross domestic product is equal to 9,1%.
According to Palazzo Chigi, the majority has finally found political agreement on the relaunch decree, which should be approved today by the Council of Ministers. According to the Viminale, the measure that provides for the regularization of migrants in the agricultural sector and domestic work is ready, but there is still no agreement with the M5s.
KKR ENTERS PROSIEBENSAT AND INSIDIA MEDIASET IN GERMANY
The price lists in Paris (-0,4%) and Frankfurt (-0,08%) are more fragile, where surprisingly Kkr, the US private giant, announced the purchase of 5,2% of Prosiebensat (+13,3 %). The US fund, which had already entered the capital of Axel Springer last August, thus joins Mediaset in the shareholding structure, with a strong 24,9% stake. He could be the anti-Biscione white knight or the ally the Italian group needs to win the campaign across the Rhine.
VODAFONE'S DIVIDEND GIVES THE CITY WINGS
The Frankfurt (-0,08%) and Paris (-0,4%) lists are more fragile. On the other hand, purchases prevail in Madrid (+1,36%) and London (+0,84%). Vodafone shines on the British list (+8,7%) after the quarterly report and the confirmation of the dividend. A performance that sparked appetite for telecoms stocks across Europe.
BTP TODAY BEING TESTED BY FIRE: 9 BILLION OFFERED AT AUCTION
The Italian paper closed a session around parity in which the XNUMX-year rate and the Italy-Germany spread traded in rather narrow ranges, awaiting today's medium-long term auctions.
This morning the Treasury is offering up to 9 billion euros in four securities: 3, 7 and 20-year BTPs plus 15-year 'off-the-run' bonds with yields expected to rise above all on the longer segments.
Yesterday 10,5 billion between 12-month and flexible BOTs were placed. In detail: 7 billion was allocated at a yield of 0,248%, down 29 basis points from last month's jump. Also placed 3,5 billion flexible bots.
On the secondary side, the spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds decreased slightly: 238 basis points (-0,5%), with a BTP rate of 1,87%.
TIM, PRYSMIAN, A2A: A WINNING TRIO FOR MILAN
The data that emerged from some quarterly reports allowed the brilliant performance of Piazza Affari.
Tim (+5,77%) took flight in the wake of Vodafone's excellent results.
Prysmian flies (+4,49%), which also ended the first quarter of 2020 with revenues of 2,59 billion euros, down by 6,6% compared to the 2,77 billion euros recorded in the same period of the last year, and decided to withdraw guidance on 2020 in light of the uncertainties related to Covid-19. Still, profit and debt are better than expected. The company will proceed "promptly" to update the estimates on adjusted ebitda and cash flows when there is greater visibility on the development of the pandemic.
A2A follows (+4,19%), which closed the first quarter with a net profit of 112 million (+8%). Enel +1,07%.
Among the most brilliant exploits, Nexi (+4,41%): Ebitda growing to 115 million (+3,9%).
THE MANAGED RALLY CONTINUES: FINECO AND MEDIOLANUM SHINE
Asset management is still rallying. In the aftermath of results lead the Finecobank race (+5,11%), ahead of Banca Mediolanum (+3,5%), which has gained 16% since the lows reached by the market on 35 March, a trend roughly in line with that of the other stocks in the sector: +43% Anima, +38% FinecoBank, +33% Banca Generali and +25% Azimut.
INDUSTRY SUFFERS: IMA IN RED, DOWNGRADE FOR BREMBO
There were no disappointments. Among these, Ima (-6,95%) closed the first quarter in the red for 3,1 million. Brembo is also bad (-2,14%): Banca Imi has reduced the recommendation from add to hold, with the target price going from 8,7 to 7,4 euros.
ORDER FOR ASTALDI (+3,05%) IN ROMANIA
Illimity (+2,94%) rewarded by the positive judgments of analysts: Equita Sim confirmed the buy and target rating of 10,4 euro per share.
Astaldi +3,05% after the announcement of the 356 million euro contract obtained by the company for the construction of over 30 kilometers of the Sibiu-Pitesti motorway, the most important motorway section under construction in Romania.
Masi up sharply: +5,65%. The winery announced that Bac.co, a shareholder with 6% of the capital, has sold its stake.
