The markets, stressed by the negative news on the economic situation coming from China but not only (the sale of homes in the USA has fallen to a three-year low), are relying on the hope of an agreement between Washington and Beijing to avoid the increase in tariffs threatened by Donald Trump if an agreement is not found by March 1st. This explains the fact that a false scoop from the Financial Times was enough to knock out Wall Street, which fell to its lowest level yesterday evening. The newspaper's website anticipated the news of the cancellation of a meeting on trade scheduled for this week in Washington.
A FAKE SCOOP SHAKES THE US STOCK
But the news was denied in the evening by Larry Kudlow, Donald Trump's economic adviser: the only scheduled meeting is the one scheduled for the end of the month with Chinese deputy prime minister Liu He. And so Wall Street, already heavily down (S&P -1,9%, the Nasdaq worse with losses of around 5% for Amazon and Netflix) has recovered some positions, even if the mood, on all squares, is not sure of the best.
TOKYO'S EXPORTS DROP 3,8%
The latest alarm has come from Japan. Tokyo's exports recorded a drop of 3,8%, the sharpest contraction in the last two years. Meanwhile, the central bank has revised its inflation estimates downwards. The Topix index fell (-0,4%). In the list, Japan Display, one of the producers of the iPhone XR screens that has long been in serious trouble, climbed 10% on the rumors of a possible bailout.
The yen falls, the Chinese yuan rises after four days: during the night, the Central Bank of Beijing showed up on the markets, making available to banks liquidity for 258 billion yuan (38 billion dollars).
The Asian markets are weak, showing a modest decline. The Korean Kospi rises (+0,2%).
Brent oil closed down 2% yesterday and crude traded at $61,5 a barrel this morning. At Piazza Affari Saipem falls by 1,5%: Exane has strengthened the outpeform opinion by raising the target to 5 euros from 4,90. However, the investigation by the Milan prosecutor's office weighs on the company.
ELLIOTT PUTS IN THE VIEWFINDER AND BAY
US markets negative despite the final recovery: S&P 500 -1,22%, Dow Jones -1,42% and Nasdaq -1,91%. Among the positive notes Ibm, up 6,6% after the Stock Exchange thanks to the results. Elliott Partner has targeted Bay. Paul Singer's fund bought 4% of the company and sent a letter to the board urging action to raise the share price.
EUROPE IN THE RED, UBS ACCOUNTS WEIGHT ON THE BANKS
The Milan Stock Exchange closed down by 1,03%, conditioned by the pressure on banking stocks (the sector index -1,16%). Down also the Cac 40 of Paris (-0,4%) and the Dax of Frankfurt (-0,4%). The most positive note concerns Hugo Boss: +5,64% after raising the guidance for the current year.
In Zurich (-0,50%) sharp fall of Ubs (-3,17%) after the accounts and negative forecasts for the year. Julius Baer was also down sharply (-2,41%).
The London Stock Exchange lost 1%. However, the pound appreciated against the euro, at 0,876, a level not seen for two months.
NEW PARIS-BERLIN AXIS, RECORD WORK IN LONDON
The leaders of France and Germany have signed an agreement to update the reconciliation agreement concluded after the war to reinvigorate the European Union's main axis against the growth of Eurosceptic nationalist movements. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron want the new agreement, which updates the 1963 Elysee Treaty, to boost European unity, hit by events such as Brexit, the immigration crisis and the financial one.
The relationship between Italy and France remains strong and firm, despite the discussions between governments in recent days. The Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte wrote in a note, the day after the Paris government summoned the Italian ambassador following the declarations of the Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio on the French attitude towards Africa.
Even if English politics is in chaos, in Great Britain wages go up and unemployment goes down: +3% for the former and 4% for the latter, a level not seen for about forty years. Meanwhile, Labor say they are ready to support Theresa May's government, voting for a postponement of the deadline for Brexit.
RACE FOR SPANISH BONUS: 50 BILLION REQUESTS
The weakening of growth prospects together with the unknown Brexit has pushed capital from the stock market to that of eurozone bonds. Indeed, the weak economic situation could lead the ECB to greater prudence in the normalization of monetary policy. It is therefore possible that the central bank directorate, meeting today and tomorrow in Frankfurt, could prepare the ground for the launch of a new round of long-term financing aimed at banks, aimed at maintaining a very accommodative stance.
The confirmation came from the monstrous demand for the new Spanish 46-year bond, which reached 15 billion euros, confirming in this phase the investors' appetite for paper from the so-called periphery of the euro zone, after the record issue of the 65-year BTP last week. The rate was set at 70 basis points on the curve after an initial indication in the 67 basis points area (later revised to the XNUMX basis points area).
The Italian 2,74-year yield fell to 2,77% from 254% at the end of yesterday's session, while the spread with the same maturity of the Bund closed at 258 basis points from XNUMX basis points at the end of yesterday's session.
TIM BELOW TEN BILLION. EXCHANGES FOR 2,5%
Tim's descent into the abyss risks creating a dangerous domino effect on the rest of the list. This is the alarm of some international investors and analysts after the umpteenth fall of the share, which slipped yesterday by 6,24%, to 0,441 euro, after trading on more than 2,5% of the capital, for a capitalisation, including shares savings (down by 6%) of less than ten billion euros. Meanwhile, the negative reviews are multiplying. HSBC reduced the target price from 0,6 to 0,45 euro, with hold rating, while Exane cut the target price from 0,36 to 0,35 euro, confirming the underperform recommendation. Both Fidentiis and Equita maintain the buy rating on the stock (target price at 0,55 euro) as does Kepler Chevreux which, however, has cut the target price from 0,90 to 0,65 euro.
MESSINA (INTESA): ITALIAN NPLs UNDER CONTROL
The sales also hit the credit sector. Heavy losses for Banco Bpm (-2,69%), Unicredit (-2,14%) and Ubi Banca (-1,97%), while limiting the damage to -0,6% Intesa Sanpaolo. The CEO Carlo Messina declared that, as regards "the question of NPLs" in the belly of Italian banks, the situation "is under control".
Minus sign also for the industrialists. Stm sells 3,41%, Leonardo 1,21%. The car sector is weak: FCA -1,67%. On Ferrari (-2,07%) Banca Akros reduced the target price to 110 euros from 112,5 euros, confirming the rating at neutral.
AUTOGRILL OFFER IN FRANCE
Banca Akros also reduced Tod's target price -0,69% to 47 euros from 53, confirming the rating at neutral, in view of the revision of the preliminary revenue estimates.
Autogrill +0,45%. The company, according to Reuters, has presented an offer for Areas, the catering division of the French Elior concessions.
Isagro +7%. The Environment Commission of the European Parliament yesterday gave the first green light to the reform of the regulation on fertilizers.
Falck Renew +5%, the highest since 2010. Fly Bioera (+19,52%), well bought Bialetti (+7,76%).
