In the event that the coronavirus emergency lasts until the end of April, Italy's added value risks shrinking by almost 19 billion, a reduction which in percentage terms translates into -1,2% compared to 2019. This is the estimate by Unioncamere, contained in an analysis carried out in collaboration with the Guglielmo Tagliacarne Chambers of Commerce Study Center on the basis of data updated to 2 March.
The study shows that the three regions of Northern Italy most affected by the Covid-19 contagion will obviously pay the highest consequences. In Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia Romagna the added value could in fact be reduced by more than 2%. In the red zone, made up of eleven municipalities, the effects of the emergency could be very serious. If, as is probable, the restrictions imposed by the government to slow the contagion last until the end of March, these municipalities could lose 238 million euros in turnover and almost 140 million in added value.
The Unioncamere study also broadens the horizon of analysis up to June. If the health emergency were to continue in the next three months, in its current scope, the estimates would become even more prohibitive, with the added value expected to drop by 2,3%: in figures at 37 billion euro. Territorially, Lombardy would lose -3,9% of its wealth, Veneto -4,4%, Emilia Romagna 4,3%.
At the sectoral level, the repercussions on tourism are very serious which risks seeing almost 4 billion of added value go up in smoke (-6,3% on an annual basis) due to the drop in attendance announced until the end of April. "The loss of added value could reach 7,7 billion euros (-12,2%) if the current emergency continues but only until June, thus saving the attendance expected in the summer season", underlines Unioncamere.
Effects could also occur on exports: “over 10% of Italian sales abroad – the report highlights – is directed precisely towards those countries which, at present, have imposed greater restrictions on the movement of people”.
"The Italian Chambers of Commerce are ready to do their part to support businesses and territories", reads the note. In order to give its contribution, Unioncamere has set up a "task force" made up of presidents of chambers of commerce from different areas of the country who will have to monitor the situation, identify the most suitable measures and implement the most urgent actions to support companies in the sectors most affected.
