Maneuvers on oil and Japanese rates globally. A cold shower, partly unexpected: Italian banks hit by Moody's warning. Many variables complicate the horizon of the financial markets, which are very cautious awaiting more precise indications from the central banks.
Tokyo, anxious awaiting the decisions that the BoJ will take in Thursday's meeting, lost more than one percentage point this morning, with the yen trading at 111,06 against the dollar: the markets do not believe that the Central Bank can reverse the trend with a rate maneuver. Hong Kong and Shanghai also down +0,1%. State-owned company profits fell 13,8% in the first quarter.
Wall Street holds back under pressure from weak crude oil and housing market data. The S&P500 index closed down by 0,18%, the Dow Jones by 0,15% and the Nasdaq by 0,21%. On the eve of the FOMC meeting, even a well-known "hawk" like Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed gives up: "We cannot proceed against such strong market expectations."
THE APPLE CLOSES WITH THE GERMAN BIG, GOLDMAN SACHS OPENS TO CHEAP CUSTOMERS
Spotlight on Apple awaiting the data for the first quarter (-0,9%), from which the first drop in iPhone sales should emerge. The company has postponed the announcement, initially scheduled for today, by one day. The German Handelsblatt writes that Apple's collaboration with some German car manufacturers has been interrupted. Apple has decided to go ahead with the creation of the iCar with the giant of the Magna components. The rupture would have taken place on who should hold ownership of the project data: it seems that Apple is stubborn in wanting to keep them only in its iCloud virtual warehouse.
Small revolution at Goldman Sachs: the broker, which has so far reserved its services for super wealthy customers, has opened its doors to cheaper online accounts. A dollar will be enough to experience the thrill of being a customer of the most exclusive bank. Also noteworthy is the offer by Gannett (“Usa Today”) for the purchase of “Chicago Tribune” and “Los Angeles Times”: 815 million dollars.
Brent-type oil is on the rise to 44,93 dollars (+1%), while the Saudi plan to emancipate the economy from crude oil takes shape.
5% OF ARAMCO ON THE MARKET WITHIN THE YEAR: IT IS WORTH 5 TIMES EXXON
Epochal changes are shaking the oil horizon. Saudi Prince Mohamed bin Salman presented the "Arabia 2030" plan which provides for the establishment of a 3 trillion dollar fund to free the economy from dependence on crude oil. To this end, 5% of Aramco, the crude oil giant valued at no less than 2 trillion dollars, five times as much as Exxon, will be offered as a first move within the year. The program envisages radical reforms, also for the benefit of women who, however, in the meantime are still banned from driving licences.
But oil remains the main strategic weapon for now. Bloomberg reports that Iran's oil production has risen to its highest level since 2012. The same agency reports that Saudi Arabia is moving forward with investments for the development of the Shaybah field, a commitment that should allow the country to keep production around to 12 million barrels a day of oil, in this way it does not lose market share.
AUSTRIA WEIGHTS ON BTPs. TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY TODAY
The success of the far right in Austria has led to tensions in the Eurozone debt market. In a session with "low but not very low" volumes on the Italian market for the April 25 holiday, the 1,50-year BTP rate was traded in the 1,53% area, with a peak this morning of 0,27%, the highest since the end February; the 130-year Bund edged to XNUMX%, a five-week high. The Btp/Bund spread has risen up to XNUMX points.
End of month auctions kick off today. The Treasury offers 2024 Btpei for an amount up to 750 million; tomorrow it will be the turn of 6 billion Bots every six months. Finally, Thursday will close with 7,75 billion of the new Ccteu July 2023 and of the 5 and 10-year BTPs. Ctz placement is not held this month.
MOODY'S EFFECT AT PIAZZA AFARI: -1,5%
The European stock exchanges were weak yesterday: the German Ifo was worse than expected, the EU markets held back pending indications from the Fed. Paris fell by 0,5%, Frankfurt by 0,8%, as did London. Madrid -1,01%. Futures this morning signal a slight increase for the main stock exchanges.
Piazza Affari is once again bringing up the rear of the European stock exchanges. The Ftse Mib index closed the session down (-1,52% to 18.403 points), just above the day's lows (18.332) well below the high of 18.744.
THE AGENCY: WITH ATLANTE, TOO MANY RISKS FOR UNICREDIT AND INTESA
Once again the fate of the Italian stock market is hand in glove with the events in the banking sector. Moody's lit the fuse. The rating company has sent a warning: institutions that have put money into the Atlante fund risk being penalized as the fund will be called upon to subscribe for shares in banks that are at risk of resolution. The agency also points out that the purchase of junior securities issued against non-performing loans is a very risky activity as these bonds have practically no market.
UniCredit (-5,3%) ended up in the crosshairs: according to Moody's the bank risks falling below the minimum level of Common Equity Tier 1 required by the ECB: 10,73%, just above the 10% required by the ECB. The investment in Atlante represents 0,26% of the risk-weighted assets supported by Unicredit.
Intesa (-2,7.%), Monte Paschi (-3%) and Banco Popolare (-3,4%) are also under fire. Ubi Banca (-5%), Mediobanca (-4%) and Banca Carige (-5%) are doing worse. The Stoxx index of European banks marks a loss of more than 3%. The sub-fund's profits are 34% lower than in 2007, the last year before the crisis.
In Milan, asset management companies are also down: Azimut -1,7% and Banca Mediolanum -2,3%. Poste Italiane closed in positive territory (+0,08%) on which Mediobanca Securities confirmed its positive view (outperform, target price at 8,5 euro).
TELECOM THUD, UTILITIES WEAK
The rumors about a forthcoming shareholding swap with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti do not do well for Telecom Italia (-4,36%): a stake in Telecom Italia Sparkle against control of Metroweb. European TLCs are also weighed down by the probable no from the European Union's Antitrust authority on the 10,3 billion pound offer by Hutchison Holdings (owner of 3) for the British mobile operator 02, controlled by Telefonica.
Among utilities, A2A -1,7%. Enel (-0,6%) does not suffer the effects of the collapse of EDF in Paris: the French electricity giant has announced a capital increase of around 4 billion euros, to be implemented by the end of 2016, as well as a new cost-cutting plan up to one billion by 2019.
TENARIS GOES OFF: FOR CREDIT SUISSE IT IS NOW FOR SALE
Among the oil companies, Tenaris slows down (-2,9%) pending the publication of the results for the first quarter, scheduled for tomorrow: Banca Akros has in any case raised the target price from 10,5 euros to 13 euros, confirming the accumulated rating. On the contrary, the time has come for Credit Suisse to take profits after the rally (+10% from the beginning of the year, +45% from the lows of mid-February). The Swiss broker cut the Underperform rating from Neutral while keeping the target price unchanged at 9 euros. Eni -1%, Saipem +1,7%.
JUVENTUS, THE REAL STAR OF THE AGNELLI GROUP
Cnh Industrial also did badly (-3,12% to 6,37 euros), penalized by the detachment of the coupon of 0,13 euros per share. On the eve of the quarterly, Fiat Chrysler closed at +0,56% after canceling the fall in the morning following the announcement of the recall of 1,1 million cars in North America due to a technical problem.
Analysts expect positive indications on margins thanks to the North America and Middle East areas. On 15 March it was Marchionne himself who reassured the market on the accounts for the first quarter, emphasizing that "they are in line with the estimates". The advance of Juventus stands out in the Exor team: +1,6% after the conquest of fifth consecutive championship.
