Penalized by the difficult global and European context, growth in Italy "will remain low within the forecast horizon". This is highlighted by the Study Center of Confindustria since Forecast Report for Fall 2025.
According to the CSC, there will be an annual increase of GDP equal to just +0,5% in 2025, 0,1 percentage points lower than expected in the April scenario. Italian growth is expected to accelerate slightly in 2026, to +0,7%, returning to the 2024 pace. The annual economic dynamics, the report states, "is held back in particular by the setback in the second quarter of 2025," when Italian GDP fell by 0,1%, due to the fall in exports. And in another passage he underlines: “The anemic GDP growth The expected impact this year and next makes it necessary to move Italy forward, intervening with the most effective levers available, including unlocking financial wealth from parking in unproductive bank deposits."
Confindustria on GDP: "Anemic growth."
To the very positive impact of the Pnrr, which is already underway but which will be concluded in the first months of next year, the industrialists underline, "must be accompanied by a budget maneuver that wisely continues on the path of stimulating productive investments“. Because – he also underlines Emanuele Orsini, president of Confindustria – “the NRRP is contributing to the country's growth,” but “what will happen next? This is why we continue to insist on a plan with a three-year industrial vision for this country, to ensure continuity of measures.”
Investments are necessary – it is insisted – to relaunch the country's growth and incentives can work effectively to stimulate them, even in Noon, as we have seen in recent years."
Confindustria: "Incentivize investments, here's what."
Ex-post evaluation analyses say that the incentives for investments in capital goods 4.0 – explains the CSC – have contributed to the recent surge in investment observed in Italy. This recovery, however, is not yet sufficient to restore net capital to pre-2008 financial crisis levels. Investments in tangible and intangible assets with a high capital content technological and digital They are essential, given the large gap that our country still faces in advanced technologies: "The propensity to invest in these assets has grown in Italy, but remains lower than in other advanced economies." Tax incentives for Industry 4.0 investments will largely expire at the end of 2025: it is therefore necessary to "redesign incentives that have the potential to enable Italy to make the necessary leap."
Confindustria: "Families' financial wealth plays a crucial role."
According to Confindustria, a crucial role in accelerating investments can be played by financial wealth of Italian families. "This wealth," the report states, "is growing rapidly and has reached enormous values, equal to over 6.000 billion euros in 2024, fueled primarily by the high savings of recent years. In particular, household bank deposits in Italy have reached over 1.500 trillion, about a quarter of the total. Mobilizing even a small portion of Italian households' total wealth could free up significant resources to finance new productive investments in the country: for example, Shifting just 1,0% from deposits to bonds and shares issued by Italian companies could translate into financing €15 billion in new investments.".
For this reason, "measures are needed well-constructed, which induce families and large financial intermediaries (such as pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds) to move resources towards instruments issued by our companies". It should be underlined, the experts from Viale dell'Astronomia continue, "that such resources could also be usefully employed to finance infrastructures of national interest, investments in Health and education, creating a more favorable environment for growth."
According to Confindustria, the weak GDP growth, both on average in 2025 and 2026, "will be supported mainly by investments, to a lesser extent by household consumption, while net exports will contribute negatively."
