An eventual victory of the "no" al constitutional referendum next autumn would bring with it a new recession for the Italian economy. To say it is the Study Center of Confindustria, according to which the "no" would open to a season of political chaos in the country, ushering in a new deterioration of the Italian economy.
In the three-year period 2017-2019, the difference between the GDP estimates in the two different scenarios is well 4 percentage points. In case of victory of the "no", in fact, the CsC forecasts a drop in GDP of 0,7% in 2017 and 1,2% in 2018, followed by a rise of 0,2% in 2019. In total, therefore, in the three-year period there would be a decrease of 1,7%, while the base scenario is +2,3% in aggregate.
Confindustria, therefore, lined up for the 'yes' to the referendum on which the premier Matteo Renzi the political future is at stake, pointing out how a "no" would bring with it an earthquake on the investment front: "Investments fall by 1,6% in 2017, by 7,0% in 2018 and by 3,9% in 2019, for a cumulative -12,1%, against an otherwise expected +5,6% (difference of 16,8%). Employment decreases overall by 258 thousand units, while otherwise it would increase by 319 thousand, with a gap of almost 600 thousand units. The public deficit rises to 4,0% of GDP already in 2018 and the public debt exceeds 144% of GDP in 2019, against the alternative 131,9%.
Meanwhile, the Confindustria Study Center has already begun to cut estimates on the Italian GDP. Compared to the December 2015 forecasts which indicated a growth of 1,4% in 2016 and 1,3% in 2017, now the estimates speak of an increase of 0,8% in 2016 and 0,6% in 2017 .
The cut in growth forecasts is also influenced by the impact of the Brexit, which, according to the CsC is quantifiable in a -0,1% for this year and a -0,5% in the next. According to the director of the Center Luca Paolazzi, Great Britain's exit from the EU will cause the loss of 81 jobs in Italy over the two-year period and 150 euros in per capita income.
