The scarcity of commodities is today a serious problem for many supply chains, therefore - despite the factors that fuel downward pressures - the prices of raw materials will remain sustained for a long time to come. Intesa Sanpaolo writes it in a report, adding that the classic "invisible hand of the market" will gradually restore the balance: indeed, high prices are already stimulating a recovery in supply, while at the same time consumption of some commodities could drop , both due to a natural decline in demand and because technological progress will allow for a lesser use of materials in the future. But these are not immediate processes: supply and demand will balance out again only in the medium term, and in the meantime the prices of raw materials will remain above the average for the last five years.
OIL: GROWTH IN SIGHT FOR BRENT
In detail, Intesa Sanpaolo analysts believe that the world oil market "should settle close to equilibrium in the fourth quarter of 2021 and in the first quarter of 2022, to then return to a surplus in 2022". However, experts continue to say they are "cautiously positive on prices" and expect "moderate growth potential" for Brent, "in the face of a still favorable macroeconomic scenario". Two factors will intervene to support demand: the recovery of the world economy, destined to return to pre-crisis levels, and the gradual recovery of trade and transport.
GAS: “WINTER IS COMING”
As for gas, the Intesa Sanpaolo report shows that European deposits are already "significantly emptier than the seasonal average". For this reason, analysts express "doubts about the stability of the system in the event of a cold winter, which would amplify the demand for gas for heating".
GOLD AND OTHER PRECIOUS METALS: BEWARE OF TAPERING
In terms of precious metals, the study center of the credit institute recalls that prices have recently fallen due to the parallel "strengthening of the US dollar and expectations of an imminent tapering by the Federal Reserve". As a result, gold and silver prices could fall further if the central banks of the USA and the Eurozone initiate tapering, slowing down the flow of securities purchases.
AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS: VOLATILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Finally, "the prices of most agricultural commodities should fall in the coming months in the face of less tense market expectations - concludes the Intesa Sanpaolo report - However, fears related to weather conditions remain in the foreground and could fuel volatility, due to the most serious and least predictable impacts of climate change and global warming on the sector”.
