If Europe and the West are struggling, the Chinese economy has already started running again. And also with the turbo. This emerges from the focus on China by Intesa Sanpaolo's Studies and Research Department: the recovery of economic activity continued between June and August thanks to a recovery in consumption which is following the even more sustained recovery in investments. Not only that: Intesa analysts even revise upwards the GDP growth forecasts from +1% to +2,1% in 2020 (while double-digit decreases are expected in European countries and the USA) keeping the reacceleration unchanged at 7,6% in 2021, which would bring Beijing abundantly back to the pre-Covid rhythms. And so while Europe is still licking its wounds, in the Asian country, now the world's leading economy, Covid will have had a negative impact only for one quarter: the first of 2020, with -6,8%.
Already in the spring quarter, however, while in Italy and almost everywhere in the world we were in quarantine with many companies at a standstill, China was able to score a +3,2%. And so the calendar year as a whole will also have a plus sign, even with estimates more than doubled compared to the previous ones by the Intesa Sanpaolo Studies and Research Department. However, all that glitters is not gold: the recovery of investments has been driven by public funds (which Europe is about to do, albeit over a long period of time) and is concentrated in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. But on the other hand the performance of private consumption in the second quarter, albeit improving on the first, remained weak. “On the front of the COVID-19 epidemic – explains the report – the situation is under control and much more optimistic than in other countries. Two new outbreaks of infections, which emerged in the summer in Xinjiang and Shanghai, have been contained and since mid-August the new infections have been limited and only imported".
The objective of most of the measures – Intesa Sanpaolo continues to explain – is to guarantee the correct and fair functioning of the market in various areas, so as to make it efficient and comparable on an international level, and therefore attractive to foreign investments. All measures appear to be in line with the "dual circulation" strategy, domestic and foreign, outlined in a general way in the Two Sessions by President Xi Jinping in May, and further elaborated in the summer months in the speeches of various political exponents. The President had underlined the urgency of building "a complete system of domestic consumption", a strong promotion of innovation in science and technology, but at the same time a continuous and greater opening of the market to foreign investors. The dual circulation strategy, which appears increasingly necessary in view of a possible decoupling and the increase in tensions with the USA, and beyond, is announced the leitmotiv of the XIVth five-year plan (2021-2025) which will be presented in the autumn at the fifth plenary session of the CPC Central Committee.
