The beginning of the week marked by uncertainty for the financial markets amid (few) good news and signs of new tensions on the stock markets. Among the positive notes, the announcement that Shanghai, says the mayor, will lift the restrictions in early June. The list of negative signals is longer: Wall Street futures fall, oil opens down, only the yen strengthens on the currency market, the dollar dominates almost everything else.
In large part it is the effect of the dramatic data coming from China, exhausted by the harsh quarantine imposed on a large part of the territory (400 million people, 40% of GDP) with the aim of eliminating Covid, which has had devastating effects.
Il drop in consumption in April it is 11,1%. The sale of cars, in particular, fell by 47,6%, the proceeds of restaurants by 23%. Heavy the impact on industrial production: -2,9% versus expected +0,4%. Oil consumption -11% and electricity production -4,7% fell sharply. salt unemployment to 6,7%, far more than the 5,5% target promised by premier Li Kequiang, which requires the creation of 13 million jobs within the year.
It is also difficult to hit one goal GDP growth within the year of 5,5% (in March +4,8%). In April, and this is perhaps the most alarming data, home sales fell by 46,8% compared to a year ago, to their lowest since 2010. The country is thus paying for the mortgage crisis.
The hope of an intervention by the authorities limits the decline CSi 300 by just one percentage point. The Hang Seng of Honk Kong yields 0,4%.
The Nikkei of Tokyo is up 0,4%. Positive also the Taiex di Taipei (+0,4%), the Straits Times of Singapore (+0,8%) and the S&P ASX200 of Sidney (+ 0,2%).
BSE Sensex of Mumbai +0,7% at the start of the session. Drought-stricken India has banned the export of grains. The food crisis caused by the blockade of the Ukrainian grain trade worsens.
“Even in the worst markets there is always a safe haven. But this time there may be an exception”. With this mournful note opens the Wall Street Journal: the Stock Exchange disappoints, with the worst start since 1970, but also gold and, above all, cryptocurrencies. In reality, underlines a report by Bank of America, the system of funds and ETFs withstood the storm well: out of 100 dollars invested in assets at the beginning of 2021, only 4 came out.
The future of Nasdaq it is down by 0,7%, from +3,8% on Friday, the best session since November 2020. The week closed with a decline of 2,8%.
Il Treasury Notes 2,90-year trades at XNUMX%, more or less on last Friday's levels.
Euro dollar to1,039, down 0,1% after Friday's mini-rebound. We are always close to the lows for the period.
Petroleum down 1,5% this morning, WTI at $109, Brent at $110. An agreement has been reached within the EU on a system (intricate, actually) that will allow European companies to comply with the Kremlin's requests without violating the sanctions.
Il Bitcoin struggles to maintain the $30.200 level: this morning it's trading at $2,5, down XNUMX%.
Spotlight on central banks in the week that opens. Both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB number one Christine Lagarde will speak on Tuesday. Above all on the European side, the conviction on the markets of an interest rate increase as early as July is growing stronger and stronger.
The European Commission publishes the Spring economic forecasts: expected to cut Eurozone growth estimates for 2022 from 4% expected in February to 2,7%. Italy should lose about one and a half points of GDP compared to the 4,1% projected in February.
Still on the international front, the financial G7 is scheduled for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday in Bonn, Germany.
The Bank of Italy update on the trend of the Italian public debt is expected today.
In Piazza Affari, the quarterly of Saras is highlighted with a conference call.
