There is no shortage of warning signs. The European Commission revises its estimates on the economy downwards. According to the OECD, unemployment in the most developed countries will rise on average to 9,4% this year, from 5,3% last year, and in Italy it will reach 12,4%. Meanwhile, the pandemic does not stop: the United States has recorded 55 new cases, Brazilian Prime Minister Bolsonaro, an implacable denier, is for now the last illustrious infected person. Faced with these data, Taurus falters but does not give up. Starting from China where, for the first time since 11 June, when the outbreak broke out at the Xinfadi market, no new cases have been registered.
SHANGHAI SPEEDS UP, NASDAQ IN RED
China's stock markets recover after a cautious start, the Shanghai Composite index rising by 0,7% to 3.370 points, the highest in the last two and a half years.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0,3%) also reversed course. At the start of the session, the stock exchange of the former British colony had been held back by rumors about a plan by the White House which aims to hit the big banks active in the city-state, limiting their purchase of dollars. Anglo-Chinese financial giant HSBC, which generates about two-thirds of its profits in Hong Kong, was down 2,5%.
Tokyo's Nikkei was down slightly, Seoul's Kospi was on par, the Jakarta Composite was up 1,1% and Sydney's S&P ASX0,6 was down 200%.
Thanks to the pandemic, yesterday the Nasdaq interrupted its positive streak (-0,86%). Worse were the Dow Jones (-1,5%) and the S&P (-1,08%).
FLAT OIL, THE BAR AT 1.800 DOLLARS
Novavax surges (+31,8%) after the pharma company was included in the administration's anti-Covid plans. Walmart advanced 6,8% after announcing the launch of a loyalty program for customers modeled on Amazon.
A slight rise in futures on US stock exchanges. Brent oil is flat at $43 a barrel. Gold also showed little movement this morning, which with yesterday's increase is ever closer to 1.800 dollars an ounce.
LAGARDE: THE ECB WILL GO GREEN, MERKEL SPEAKS TODAY
Christine Lagarde, in an interview with the Financial Times, announces the ECB's agenda, on the eve of a critical phase for the relaunch of Europe. At the heart of the bank's action will be the themes of the environment and change climate: all options will be evaluated, even the 2800 trillion euro securities purchase plan could be put at the service of achieving the Green objectives.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will speak today in the European Parliament for the opening of the German presidency of the EU, then she will meet the presidents of the Commission, Parliament and the European Council to talk about the negotiations on the Recovery Fund.
SANCHEZ: SPAIN WILL NOT USE THE MONTH
Meanwhile, today Giuseppe Conte, returning from Lisbon, is visiting Madrid. The Spanish premier, Pedro Sánchez, explained in an interview with Corriere della Sera that his country will not use the Mes and is launching an "Italy-Spain pact for the EU's turnaround".
ITALY: GDP -11,2%, INDUSTRY IN GERMANY DOES NOT TAKE OFF
The European stock exchanges slowed down on the eve of crucial comparisons for the Recovery Fund. The wings of optimism were clipped by the data arriving from the real economy which froze hope in a V-shaped recovery of the old continent. For the Eurozone, the European Commission expects a drop in GDP of 8,7% (against the previous estimate of -7,7%). For Italy, the 2020 drop will rise by 11,2%, against the 9,5% already estimated. One out of three Italian companies remains at risk of closure due to Covid, and six out of ten when it comes to hotels, restaurants and sports, culture and entertainment companies.
The 2021 recovery is also slower: +6,1% against 6,5%. Meanwhile, German industry, the engine of Europe, is struggling to return to full capacity: in May, production rose by 7,8% month on month, from -17,5% in April. But the consensus was expecting +10%.
MILAN -0,10%. AXIS BETWEEN DEUTSCHE BANK AND GOOGLE
Milan limited the damage: – 0,10%, to 20.012.88 points, a breath above the psychological threshold of 20 points.
The other European markets are doing much worse, conditioned by the slow start of the US Stock Exchanges: Frankfurt leaves 0,92% on the ground. The agreement between Deutsche Bank and Google to develop new financial services should be noted. Bayer -5,9% after a US judge challenged the agreement on the carcinogenic herbicide, Roundup.
Paris -0,74%. Sodexo fell 5,9% after expecting fourth-quarter and first-half sales to suffer a larger-than-expected decline due to the impact of the coronavirus.
Madrid (-1,44%) and London (-1,55%) are doing worse.
BTP FUTURA, RAISES OF OVER 4 BILLION
The BTPs returned to positive at the end of a session with summer volumes. The 1,21-year BTP trades at 168%, a spread of 5 points, roughly at the levels of March before the outbreak of the pandemic. To confirm the stability of the Eurozone, suffice it to say that Cyprus raised 4 billion on Tuesday with an offer of 1,68-year and 4,05-year bonds. The collection of Btp Futura slows down, as expected: XNUMX billion, bringing the total for the first two days to XNUMX billion.
On July 10, the Treasury will offer 10 billion between annual and flexible BOTs.
CITIGROUP CHARGES SNAM, ENI RECOVERS
The utilities supported by a Citigroup report are highlighted on the Piazza Affari price list. Promoted Italgas and Snam which rise by more than one percentage point. Enel is doing well too.
Eni (+0,15%) recovered the initial declines triggered by the review of the scenario (including a possible dividend cut) and the estimated write-downs announced on the eve. Banca Imi confirmed the buy rating and the target price at 11,2 euro.
On the other hand, Saipem (-2,03%) and Tenaris (-1,73%) decreased.
MONCLER (+1,9%) WEARS GLASSES
Brillante Moncler (+1,93% to 34,82 euros): Banca Akros confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price at 37,5 euros, after the company and Marcolin Group renewed the licensing agreement in advance world exclusive for the design, production and distribution of sunglasses, optical frames and ski goggles.
DIASORIN LAUNCHES A TEST ON THE INFLUENZA
Diasorin's star shines again (+2%) after the launch of the new Simplexa test against the flu that can be performed together with the one for Covid. Equita analysts take up an article in the Financial Times according to which some studies have proved that vitamin D could represent a potential defense against the coronavirus and recall that vitamin D tests represented 15% of Diasorin turnover in 2019.
GOVERNMENT RED DISC TO THE JAPANESE IN MOLMED
Of note is Molmed: -2,9%, recovering after the initial crash. The Council of Ministers approved the use of the golden power in relation to the acquisition operation by the Japanese AGC.
TIM -3%, OPEN FIBER OPENS THE DOORS TO THE ILIAD
Telecom Italia loses 3%, among the worst stocks in the main list, after Iliad announced a agreement with Open Fiber to enter the fixed network in Italy.
THE EU ANTITRUST DEVICE POSTPONES FCA/PSA TO NOVEMBER
In the automotive sector, Brembo stands out with growth of 2,7%. FCA (+0,4%) performs better than the market while the EU antitrust authorities have extended the investigations into the proposed merger with PSA until 13 November
The banking sector remains weak despite recovering part of the losses seen at the start after the good performance on the eve. On the second day of the launch of the public offer launched by Intesa (-0,2%), UBI lost approximately 1,2% but remained above the valuation resulting from the share swap proposed by the bank led by Carlo Messina.
D'Amico soared nearly 8% after announcing it sold two vessels for $12,95 million each.
FT: 'NDRANGHETA RECYCLES IN BOND, "VICTIM" BANCA GENERALI
A bolt from the blue hits Banca Generali, who is unwillingly involved in a sophisticated money laundering case revealed by the Financial Times which reconstructs the steps of a financial operation that allowed the 'Ndrangheta to launder over one billion euros between 2015 and 2019 through a bond packaged by a Swiss investment bank. The product, certified by E&Y, was based on the transfer of receivables due from the public administration. A normal factoring operation, on invoices that companies sell to banks to immediately get the money instead of waiting months (or years) to collect, ended up in the crosshairs of the authorities because the package included a credit (400 euros) from a company then investigated for mafia activity. Banca Generali, moreover, had no way of verifying the individual items of the package of "notes".
