Donald Trump, offended by a joke by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, deserted the closing press conference of the NATO summit. The markets, which feared far worse surprises, breathe a sigh of relief. Despite increasingly stormy diplomatic relations between the big names, a positive end of the year is looming for price lists, in view of the signing of the first, albeit partial, agreement on duties between the US and China. It seems that everything is ready and there are only the details of the place and the date to decide: most likely we will not go beyond December 15, to avoid having to backtrack on the duties that should come into force on that day.
Against this backdrop, Asian stocks rose: Tokyo's Nikkei advanced by 0,8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,4%, Shanghai Composite +0,4%. The Singapore Stock Exchange gains 0,5%, that of Taipei 0,6%. Sydney S&P ASX 200 Index +1%. Only the South Korean stock market follows an opposite course: -0,3%. S&P 500 index futures are flat.
The US market indices rose yesterday: Dow Jones +0,53%, S&P 500 +0,63%, Nasdaq +0,54%.
Alphabet (+1,9%) raises the two newly retired billionaires, Sergej Brin and Larry Page.
Brent oil moved little at 63 dollars a barrel, after closing sharply higher (+3%), which can also be attributed to the sharp drop in US strategic crude inventories. Spotlight on Vienna, where Opec meets today and tomorrow
Upon arrival in the Austrian capital, Oman's energy minister said that the countries adhering to the cartel, plus their allies, agree on extending the production limits already in force. JP Morgan says that the issue of member discipline will be addressed at the summit: Saudi Arabia and the other leading countries intend to accuse Iraq above all, among those that have pumped the most in recent months. There will probably not be a new tightening on production.
MILAN RETURNS ABOVE 23 THOUSAND
Countermand. Even the European stock exchanges reversed direction after Bloomberg had already rekindled hopes in the morning about the signing of the tariff agreement between China and the United States and put the threatened US tariffs on France into the background. It is easy to predict that there will be other twists, as Donald Trump likes, but the markets of the Old Continent, stressed by four bearish sessions, are thankful all the same.
Milan regains its share of 23 thousand. The index closed at 23.034 points with an increase of 1,31%.
The rest of the Eurozone is effervescent. Frankfurt is up 1,17%, Madrid +1,47%.
Paris +1,27%. For now, the threat of US tariffs does not scare. But the good mood was frozen by the data from Orange: -4,45% after the announcement of a disappointing dividend.
STERLING IN FLIGHT, THE MARKET VOTES JOHNSON
More backward London, +0,38%, conditioned by the flight of the pound, 0,846 against the euro, galvanized by the polls which attribute a large margin of advantage to Boris Johnson.
The spread drops to 160 points (-4,11%) against a ten-year BTP yield down to 1,28% (-3 basis points). The Treasury takes advantage of this to launch a buyback on Btp, Ctz and two Btpei issues for Thursday.
MES: BRUSSELS ACCEPTS A POSTPONEMENT, BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED
Political attention remains focused on the question of the reform of the Stability Pact mechanism. The European Union is moving forward because, as anticipated by the president of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno, the political agreement on the Save States fund has now been agreed. But the signing is postponed to January, so that Italy will have more time to propose changes.
Governor Ignazio Visco defended the reform in the Chamber, which is a "step in the right direction", also because it has introduced essential support to the single resolution fund for banking crises. For the rest "the reform does not change the substance of the Treaty currently in force", adds Visco: "The treaty provides for the exclusion of any automatism in decisions regarding the sustainability of public debts and this is an important confirmation because "the only talking about restructuring hypotheses would expose us to enormous risks”.
CARRARO WILL SUPPLY AXLES FOR INEOS OFF-ROADS
The first page of the story of Piazza Affari should be reserved for a talented SME: Carraro, +14%. The company has signed a 420 million euro axle supply contract for Ineos Automotive's new 4×4 Grenadier off-road vehicle, which will enter the market in 2021 equipped with a BMW engine. A big blow for a company known up to now only in the field of tractors and earthmoving machines.
TAX TROUBLE FOR FCA: A 1,5 BILLION FINE AT RISK
The news regarding Fiat Chrysler was much less pleasant, yesterday +0,9% in Milan, but also down in the evening on Wall Street on the news of the ongoing dispute between the company and the Italian tax authorities. The Revenue Agency believes that in 2014, at the time of the reorganization of Fiat, with the change of name and the transfer of the registered office to the Netherlands, there was a significant underestimation of the assets subject to the transfer, in particular those residing in the United States. Chrysler would have been heavily undervalued, by 5,6 billion dollars, resulting in a super tax advantage: the outlay risk is approximately 1,5 billion dollars.
RISK OF LUXURY: DOWN JACKETS IN THE SIGHT OF GUCCI
Today the bombshell could concern the liveliest champion of Made in Italy: Moncler is, according to Bloomberg, in talks with Kering, the controlling holding company of the brands that pay attention to the Pinault group (including Gucci). The down jacket company, thanks to +33% since the beginning of the year, capitalizes around 10 billion euros: Kering is seven times bigger. Any acquisition is conditional on the go-ahead from Moncler's first shareholder, chairman Remo Ruffini.
MOODY'S PROMOTES ITALIAN BANKS
Banks were also in the limelight yesterday. Among the best in the Banco Bpm sector (+3%), followed by Ubi Banca (+2,5%). Spotlights still on for Unicredit (+1,92%).
The FTSE index of Italian banks (+1,5%, 9.200 points) accelerated upwards, coming close to the highs of the last six months. The performance was favored by Moody's decision to raise the outlook on the sector from "negative" to "stable", underlining that also in 2020 problem loans (NPLs) should decrease for the fifth consecutive year, while financing conditions will improve and the capital of the institutions will remain stable. However, the agency's Vice President senior credit officer, Fabio Ianno, explained that the ratio between credits and problematic items is still around 8%, more than double the EU average (3%). The improved judgment also takes into account the weakness of the Italian macroeconomic scenario.
In asset management, Banca Generali (+2,5%) and Azimut (+2,2%) stand out.
JP MORGAN BETS ON ATLANTIA: THE PRICE IS NOW LOW
Atlantia's kidney failure: +2,4%, after losing more than 13% in the last 10 sessions. The pressing of Luigi di Maio continues for the revocation of the concession, but the title recovers in the final. According to JP Morgan (target 25 euros), the share price already incorporates an increase in investments and the cost of capital, as well as a cut in tariffs. Sias +1,7%.
Stm also stands out in the industrial sector (+2,3%). Leonardo rose by 1,42% to 10,365 euros; Bank of America Merrill Lynch confirmed the buy recommendation, raising the target price to 15 euros.
AIM, POSTE ADOPTS CASTA DIVA
Visibilia jumped 47,06%.
Casta Diva +6,99% in the wake of the news that the company is among the four companies, in a shortlist of 19 participants, which won the tender called by the Poste Italiane Group relating to the planning, conception, organization and implementation of corporate character, trade fair setups, shows and exhibitions for all the Group's brands. The agreement has a total value of 25 million on a two-year basis.
