Stock lists were timid at the start of a week dominated by waiting for Federal Reserve decisions. The upward thrust of yields on US bonds, traded this morning at 1,628% in the ten-year version, a thread below the weekend level (1,642), is holding back purchases, despite the positive effect of the 1.900 billion dollars (8% of the GDP) that the Biden administration is about to pour on the economy and, no less important, the ongoing vaccine offensive: the US is vaccinating three million people a day, with the aim of reaching all Americans by May XNUMXst. The openings reflect the climate of anticipation.
CHINESE INDUSTRY +35,1% BUT THE INDEX HOLDS DOWN
- Chinese stock markets retreat despite confirmation of the speed and strength of the economic recovery. Perhaps for this reason too, the central bank did not intervene. Starting on the decline, then recovering, the Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen showed a drop of 2,3% in the end. Yet, in the first two months of 2021, the activity of Chinese refineries grew by 15% demonstrating the manufacturing trend. There industrial production marks + 35,1% compared to last year, heavily marked by the outbreak of the pandemic. Analysts expect GDP growth between 15 and 20% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020. Retail spending increased by 33,8% in the same period, slightly above the consensus. Only the data on investments in fixed assets partially disappointed: +35%, against the estimated +41%.
- On the rise Tokyo +0,1%, just days away from Friday's central bank meeting. On the same day, Prime Minister Suga will have to decide whether or not to extend the ban on entering the country in view of the Olympic Games.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose slightly. Mumbai's BSE Sensex is down 1%.
- Il WTI oil it is up 0,5% to 66 dollars a barrel. Gold at $1.723 an ounce.
US FUTURES IN THE RED, SLIGHT UP FOR EUROSTOXX
- Futures on the US markets are losing momentum after the negative start of China and, above all, the new tensions on the bond front.
- Eurostoxx futures, on the other hand, rose slightly, even though Ireland and the Netherlands suspended the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine as a precaution.
- Despite the delays from the Anglo-Swedish house, the EU will remain abreast of the vaccination program because Pfizer is producing faster than expected, said Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton.
PRINCE (BRIDGEWATER) ADVANTAGED BITCOIN AND SPAC
What the Fed will hold this week will be "the most difficult meeting of the year", according to Bank of America, given Jerome Powell's difficulties in keeping the US public debt market under control, 21 trillion bonds, without interest rate interventions . Bob Prince, one of Bridgewater's managers, assumes that inflation will rise above 2% with a heavy effect on the stocks that benefited the most from low rates, such as Netflix, Amazon and Tesla. On the other hand, the manager expects the continuation of the boom in SPACs and cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has momentum exceeded the threshold of 60 thousand dollars on Friday. This morning it traded just under 59 dollars.
ALSO MEETING BUOYS, BOJ AND EUROGROUP
The market's attention will not be concentrated only on the top of the US central bank. Bank of England (Thursday) and Bank of Japan (Friday) meetings are also scheduled. In both cases there is no change of route.
It will also be held, via videoconference, on Eurogroup summit waiting for the meetings at the end of the month at the Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the G20.
HEAVY DEFEATS FOR MERKEL, THE DUTCH VOTE UNDERWAY TODAY
On the political level, attention is focused on the electoral defeat of the Cdu, Angela Merkel's party, overwhelmed in Baden-Wuttenberg (the region of Cologne, the center of the car industry) by the Greens and defeated in Rhineland Palatinate by the Social Democrats. The electoral marathon in the Netherlands kicks off, which will last three days.
In the afternoon, spotlights on the Empire Manufacturing index relating to the industrial performance of the North-East USA. The boost ensured by the Biden administration's incentives could raise US GDP to 6,5%, for the first time in decades ahead of China. American households are sitting on $1,8 trillion in excess savings, according to Oxford Economics.
TOWARDS THE FIRST MATCH BETWEEN US AND CHINA IN ALASKA
Relations between the two superpowers may be improved by the decision of the American judge who rejected Washington's request to ban Xiaomi from the American market. Accusations against the group of dependence on the Beijing government have not been proven.
But the most awaited event concerns the first face to face among the closest collaborators of Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jingping. The meeting will be held on the 18th in Anchorage, Alaska. On one side will be Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, on the other side Chinese counterparts Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi. To underline Biden's respect for alliances, however, the Anchorage summit will take place on the return flight of Blinken and Sullivan from their first trip to Japan and South Korea.
TODAY THE EXTRAORDINARY DIVIDEND OF STELLANTIS
An intense week is starting for analysts.
At Piazza Affari Stellantis detaches the extraordinary dividend of 0,096677 euros linked to the sale of Faurecia. In anticipation of the ordinary dividend which will be detached on April 19 (0,32 euros per share), today a double remuneration is envisaged for shareholders: 54.297.006 Faurecia ordinary shares will be distributed and 308 million euros in cash received from Peugeot at against the sale of Faurecia shares in October 2020.
One is expected long series of tips for budgets of small and medium-sized listed companies: Bologna Airport, Astaldi, Biesse, El.En, Eurotech, Fiera Milano, Geox, Irce, La Doria, Landi Renzo, Marr, Nova Re, Reply, Retelit, Servizi Italia.
The European agenda is much richer. It starts on Monday with the results of Volkswagen and H&M, Tuesday will be the turn of Zalando and Iliad, Wednesday of BMW, Thursday of Vodafone, FedEx and Enel, Sunday Saudi Aramco.
TURNOVER IN DANONE. CEO FABER SILURED
Coup de scene in Danone. CEO Emmanuel Faber was forced to resign after being outvoted on the board.
On Wall Street arrive, among others, the accounts of Nike and Fedex.
To follow in Asia the assembly of Samsung , in which the group will present a new line of low cost smartphones.
