For the official data we will have to wait ten days, but in the meantime one thing is certain: 2011 was not a great year for champagne. However, there is talk of consistently excellent figures, still growing despite the crisis, but lower than expected.
According to estimates, the bottles sold last year should be around 324 million, after 320 in 2010 (+1,4%), but initial forecasts spoke of 330 million. To provide these numbers is Lanson-BCC, the second group in the sector behind the leader Lvmh: “The start of 2011 was good, but from August onwards the market dropped”, explains chairman Bruno Paillard. Indeed, there is talk of a sensational negative result in the month of December, usually the most profitable for French bubbles, calendar and holidays in hand.
Disappointed too Paul-François Vranken, patron of Vranken-Pommery, number 3 in the sector: “No company can boast brilliant results: it was definitely a mixed year”. Where precisely the excellent first semester was not achieved by an equally positive second semester, stopping the growth between 1 and 2%, compared to 9% in 2010 on 2009.
The trend is analyzed by the Civc (Interprofessional Center for Champagne Wines), which brings together wineries and winemakers: “The big brands have taken advantage of the very strong growth of major export markets, including those of emerging countries. But demand from traditional buyers, particularly Britain and Germany, tends to stagnate, while the internal one even tends to decrease”.
Among the reasons for the decline in exports to the UK, in addition to the obvious crisis, there is also, for example, the boom in English wines: global warming is in fact relaunching viticulture across the Channel, which after last year's record (4 million bottles) aims, if not at undermining the French tradition of bubbles, certainly at supporting domestic demand.
And what will be the consequences for big industry in Northern France? The main victims, according to the Civc, are the distributors of champagne for less than 12 euros and those who sell directly in the vineyards. “The French who take the car to go and get supplies from the trusted winegrower are less and less: now they prefer the shopping center”, explains Paul-François Vranken again.
However, the situation is not as dramatic as in 2008, when the sudden slump in consumption left excess stock and caused sales to drop 9,1% the following year. “The market – confides Vranken – is much calmer today”.
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