“The worst is yet to come,” says the president Macron referring to Putin's words during the umpteenth inconclusive phone call between the two. The sinister prophecy was confirmed during the night: the Russians bombed the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, hitting it: a fire developed in the buildings outside the perimeter of the reactors, but no increase in radioactivity was detected in the area. The Russians subsequently took control of the plant.
The news rained on Asian lists where sales have intensified in anticipation of a weekend that does not bode well. On the positive side, after a long marathon, an agreement was reached on humanitarian corridors on Thursday evening and a third round of talks is scheduled for next week. Never bombings continue and the Russian fleet prepares to land ad Odessa. In this climate, the structure of a war finance takes shape, between the threat of default for the Russian economy, from which the first weak voices of dissent emerge (this is the case of the oil Yukos) and the difficulty of movement for commercial traffic, starting with oil, this morning at 115 dollars, a price which, Moody's underlines, will also have an impact on India, Japan and China, significantly slowing down the recovery.
Russian nuclear power plant, after the attack the reaction of the Stock Exchanges
- Asia Pacific stocks fell sharply in the final session: Tokyo -2,3%, Hong Kong -2,6%, Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 -1,1%, Seoul Kospi -1,1% , Sensex of Mumbai -2%.
- I Wall Street futures anticipate a start down by 0,7%. Much worse forecasts for the EuroStoxx 50 Index: at the opening there will be a fall of 2,6%.
- The fall of Wall Street was also heavy on Thursday, the Nasdaq falls -1,6%, the S&P 500 index slows in the face of tensions on commodities.
- Probably the market could reward i government bonds, considered less risky than stocks. The 1,80-year Treasury Note restarts from a yield of 1,58%, the 0,02-year BTP [FBTP.OTC] from XNUMX%, the XNUMX-year Bund from XNUMX%.
- Purchases with a view to protection push the dollar on highs from June 2020, Euro-Dollar cross -0,3% to 1,1030.
- The Pound is also benefiting from the turbulence, pushing to levels not seen since February 2020.
- Il Brent oil and WTI it is up 1%, pending the Iranian nuclear deal that could be reached over the weekend.
- Il Natural gas starts again from 160 euros per mWh, in yesterday's session it reached a new record at 199,99 euros.
- Gold up slightly by 0,1% to 1.937 dollars an ounce, +6,5% since the beginning of the year.
ECB, war complicates anti-inflation plans
Events run faster than the data available to central banks. The February services index confirms that Europe has overcome the pandemic. was picking up speed (55,5 versus 51,1). But despite the fact that the Ukrainian war caused inflation to skyrocket (+5.8%, almost triple the target), the considerations in the minutes of the ECB meeting of February 3, which did not exclude the release of Qe support, were thrown away . The Russian invasion has complicated Frankfurt's plans and now the central bankers, since yesterday in silence in view of the March 10 directorate, appear strongly divided on which approach is the most appropriate. The ECB will probably reduce the stimulus measures but, as Philip Lane pointed out, "with patience".
The spread rises again to 158
- In this context, the Italian secondary closed in the red, with the spread at 156 basis points (+2,58%) and the 10-year BTP rate at +1,58%, against +0,02% for the Bund with the same duration.
- Furthermore, the tricolor card does not seem to be affected too much by the fibrillation in the majority for the reform of the land register, a new obstacle in the way of the Draghi government.
Stock exchanges in free fall: Milan -2,35%
There has been no good news from the Brest talks between aggressors and victims, while Vladimir Putin, on the phone with Emmanuel Macron, has even upped the ante. The Stock Exchanges therefore archive the session in a decided downward trend. Starting from Piazza Affari - 2,35% close to 24 points.
The rest of Europe is also down: Madrid, the worst, leaves 3,64%, London -2,55%, Amsterdam -2,16%, Frankfurt -2,09%, Paris -1,84%.
The agencies reject Moscow: default closer
The forced stoppage of Moscow continues, closed for the fourth day in a row. Meanwhile, rating agencies Fitch and Moody's have downgraded Russian debt to junk rating. For Moody's the long-term debt rating drops from Baa3 to B3. Fitch downgrades BBB to B, with negative outlook.
Lse proof of Russia, Socgen almost, Lufthansa advances on Ita
Shares on the London Stock Exchange jumped nearly 10% after reporting that the imposition of financial sanctions in Russia will have little impact on its business.
Lufthansa it is deep in the red and down almost 8% as it cannot provide a detailed outlook for 2022 due to the conflict in Eastern Europe. But the company yesterday expressed its willingness to proceed with the purchase of a share in Ita, the former Alitalia, in combination with the MSC ally of the Aponte group.
Closes at -0,75% Société Générale up sharply in the morning after claiming in a note that it is able to bear the loss of all the assets held in Russia (18,6 billion total exposure). Danone also down -2,7% and Renault - 5,87% very exposed to the Russian economy. Worst of all is Interparfums -12,5%; the multinational perfume company sells 5% of its aromas in Russia.
Crude, gas and grain under stress. Lukoil calls for peace
At the end of the day, the raw materials picture looked like this:
Brent and WTI oil are down 1%. Lukoil, Russia's second-largest crude producer, has called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible. Sources close to the negotiation, consider thenuclear deal with Iran within 72 hours.
Il Natural gas trades at 171 euros per megawatt, down 2%, from 197 euros per mWh early this morning, a new all-time high. There are regular gas arrivals from Russia at the Tarvisio post, on the border with Austria. Today's flow is 82 million cubic metres. On the other hand, that of the Yamal Russia-Germany pipeline has stopped. Yamal is one of three pipelines that Gazprom uses to carry its natural gas to Europe. About 10% of Russia's total gas supplies pass through it.
Grain Following record prices on the Chicago commodity exchange, Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters, up 7% to $1.134 per bushel, the Anglo-Saxon unit of measurement used for these commodities. Corn up 3% to $747, the highest since 2013.
Tim under 0,30 euro: skip the coupon, out of Inwit
In Piazza Affari the drama of the day is not connected to the Ukrainian tragedy. Telecom Italia left 14% on the ground, slipping to 0,296 euros. approaching the historic lows of October 2020 marked at 0,2852 euros.
Since the beginning of the year, the stock has lost a third of its value. Market capitalization was reduced to just over 6,3 billion euros less than the write-down of assets (8,7 billion) Tim closed 2021 with a heavy loss mainly due to the significant write-down of assets. Payment of dividends to savings shares postponed (first time since 1997). The Board has given a mandate to the CEO Pietro Labriola to negotiate the sale of the stake in Inwit (1,3 billion) with the Ardian fund, but slows down the single network project: "In June we will know more - said Labriola yesterday - I think that the industrial option is the one that creates the most value, but we do not exclude anything, including the possibility of transferring the majority of the NetCo to a financial partner”. Meanwhile, the minority shareholder of the secondary network, Kkr (with 37,5% of Fibercop) remains on the sidelines. The board of directors has not yet responded to the offer of 0,505 euros per share from the US fund Kkr.
Piaggio and Cnh are saved, Eni turns around
Very few stocks that manage to close the session against the trend of the price list. Among these, Cnh Industrial +1,6% followed at a safe distance by Campari +0,2%).
Out of the main basket in the big light Piaggio +2,9% after the accounts.
Oil stocks slow down. Eni heavily retraces -4,57% down after the recent rally that brought the stock to the top of the Euro Stoxx 50. Also weak are the oil services most involved in the possible recovery of investments in the sector thanks to the rise in oil prices: Saipem -1,78% and Tenaris – 2,04%.
Banks, the recovery ends at noon. Generali closes in Moscow
The recovery of the banks which are weighed down by the risks linked to exposure in Russia lasted the space of one morning. Intesa Sanpaolo -2,9% in particular, Unicredit also down -2,41%. Things are worse for Banco Bpm -7,3% and Bper -5,23%. The crisis has brought the risk maneuvers back.
Generali has announced that it will close its representative office in Moscow and leave its positions on the board of the Russian insurance company Ingosstrakh, in which it holds a minority stake of 38,5%, and furthermore that Europ Assistance will close its business in the country.
Brembo brakes, Buzzi out of the basket of Blue chips
In the automotive down Brembo -4,51% despite the increase in net profit (+57,9%): "The strong and generalized increases in production costs" and the semiconductor crisis weighed on the fourth quarter accounts, causing a reduction in Ebitda and margin. The title then pays off the fears related to exposures in Ukraine and Russia.
Buzzi Unicem -1,3% was affected by the announcement of the forthcoming exit from the Ftse Mib starting from the review of 21 March.
It reverts heavily to accomplishments Gas Plus -8,9% after the recent very strong increases. The stock falls by about 5%.
