Tapering, act two. The better-than-expected US data revived the hypothesis of an imminent trend reversal in US monetary policy. Already December, last meeting of the FONC chaired by Ben Bernanke. The consequences were felt immediately:
a) rise of dollar at a two-month high, favored by the ECB's rate cut. The improvement in the economic situation offsets the effect of the hypothetical mini-tighten on Wall Street: the S&P 500 index closed the week with a gain of 0,1%.
b) The rate cut has given a boost to the Dax of Frankfurt (+0,7%), which managed among other things to reach new historical records. Instead, the race for the price lists of the "periphery" stops. The FtseMib index closed the week with an overall loss of 1,2%, a performance in line with that of Madrid (-1%).
c) They go down again i emerging lists. The Brazilian Bovespa -3,3% (also due to the crash of Tim Brasil), Turkey -2,5%, India, Thailand and Russia also down. The double surprise of the ECB's rate cut and better-than-expected macro data in the USA did not create particular tensions on stock markets: the S&P 500 index closed the week with a gain of 0,1%.
d) Noticeable drop ingold (-1,6% on Friday at 1.285 usd). November therefore starts with a negative sign (-2,8%) after a flat October and a September down by 4,5%.
APPOINTMENTS. UNICREDIT PARADE AFTER THE ACCOUNTS
The board of directors of the bank led by Federico Ghozzoni will be held today, followed in the afternoon by the meeting with analysts and the press. The consensus of analysts foresees: net profit of 203 million and an operating margin of 487 million. The average target price is 4,68 euros. Other boards scheduled: Acea, Astaldi Banca Carige, Catagirone Editore, Exprivia, Fiera Milano, Molmed, Piaggio, Seat Pagine Gialle.
SURPRISES UNDER THE TREE/1. TELECOM ASSEMBLY
The Telecom Italia shareholders' meeting requested by Marco Fossati to revoke the directors of Telco (the holding that controls the former incumbent with a 20% stake) will be held on December 22,4th. If the proposal were approved by the shareholders' meeting, it would cause the forfeiture of the entire board. CEO Marco Patuano, after Friday's press conference, wanted to underline the points of convergence between the business plan approved by the council and Fossati's industrial proposals. As is well known, Telecom's board of directors approved the sale of transmission towers by Telecom Argentina (20 billion offer) in both Italy and Brazil, but reiterated its intention not to sell Brazil and to concentrate efforts on broadband and the innovation.
But Fossati probably didn't like to discover, as early as Friday morning, that the 1,3 billion convertible loan launched on Thursday evening had already been fully subscribed, which entails a potential decrease in the share of his Findim of 12-13% (i.e. again below 5% of the capital). The convertible, 1,3 billion, was reserved for institutional investors. The number one cmprtore was the BlackRock fund, which is already the second shareholder of TI, Tefonica had to settle for purchases for 103 million.
News also for Telco. There are various signs of an agreement between Telefonica and the Italian shareholders to continue the cohabitation until 2015, when a second window will open for the definitive exit of Generali, Intesa and Mediobanca from the holding (from 31 December to 60% in the hands of the Spanish company ). The solution will allow Telefonica not to consolidate TI's debts which would put the group's rating at risk and probably neutralize the launch of an ad hoc law to impose the takeover bid.
SURPRISES UNDER THE TREE /2. bpm extension
The umpteenth fiery assembly of Bpm shareholders is looming for next 21 December. It will be a question of renewing the governing bodies of the bank. After the resignation of the management board chaired by Andrea Bonomi. The decision, explains a note, aims to "allow the supervisory board that will be appointed to take all the most appropriate resolutions in the exclusive interest of the institute for stable and lasting management that guarantees the success of the capital increase and so that the relaunch of the bank”.
Raffaele Mincione, the bank's second shareholder with 7,02%, took action against the top management, harshly contesting the hypothesis of renewing the CDG for three years, implying that he disapproved of the entire management of the bank. Now Mincione could nominate former premier Lamerberto Dini, former general manager of via Nazionale, for the presidency.
IT HAPPENED THIS WEEK
In Piazza Affari, only 15 out of 40 blue chips closed the week with a positive sign. The results of the quarterly reports and the development of corporate situations were crucial, while macro news had little impact. The ranking of the top ten sees industrial stocks in the lead while the top ten does not include any banking or insurance securities. In first place we find Pirelli +6%%, rewarded by the indications of the new business plan. This is followed by Prysmian, which caught the markets off guard, after providing cautious indications for the whole of 2013. The stock had been down for 4 consecutive weeks. In third place Azimut +3%, after strong harvest data. Saipem +2%: however, it remains the worst stock in the main basket since the beginning of the year with a loss close to 40%.
At the top of the list of companies in negative territory Mediobanca-6% surprisingly stands out, which in four months has accumulated a gain of 70%. Reductions between 5,3% and 3,9% affected Unicredit, Ubi Banca, B. Popolare and Intesa. It makes history in itself B. Pop. Milan -5%, which is suffering the negative impact of the very tough internal battle to reform the institution's governance. Finmeccanica-5,3% strongly disappointed with the quarterly results. Telecom Italia -4,8%, following the indications emerging from the new business plan and the issue of the convertible. also in this case punished by the clash between the shareholders on the proposals to relaunch the group.
