Bitcoin, SPAC, options, high yield debt, commodity futures. And there is also room for shares, albeit held back by so much competition. Under the push of liquidity, destined to multiply with Biden's next stimulus plan, speculative opportunities are multiplying on the lists, as are the risks. But, at least for now, fear is under control: in the US the number of vaccines is rising and there is an air of recovery. Asia is more cautious, thanks to the Chinese holidays for the Lunar New Year. But the East also contributes to the great euphoria that has hit all the markets.
Hong Kong rises (+0,5%), which contends the title of Nasdaq of Asia in Shenzhen. In the last thirty sessions, the daily average was equal to 25 billion dollars, against ten billion in the same period a year ago. Hong Kong is now worth four times the exchanges of London and about 60% of the Nyse.
Tokyo's Nikkei is down 0,7% this morning. The Kospi of Seoul (-1,1%) and the BSE Sensex of Mumbai (-0,5%) are also slowing down.
Wall Street futures are little moved. Yesterday the Nasdaq (-0,34%) reached a new historical high, but in the last part of the session it was held back by the rise in market rates. Dow Jones +0,22%. The S&P 500 was flat (+0,06%).
What set the session apart was the sharp rise in T-bond yields, which jumped to their highest since February 2020 at 1,13%. Expectations of a resumption of inflation make the interest rate curve increasingly steep: the differential between the two-year and the ten-year rate rose yesterday to its highest level in the last three years at 119 basis points. The bankers, sacrificed real estate and utilities, are taking advantage of it.
ONE MISTAKE COSTS CITIBANK 500 MILLION, MISTAKE ON CLUBHOUSE
There are, as always in moments of euphoria, curious episodes. On Wall Street, the stock of Ehang Holding collapsed, a Chinese manufacturer of drones which, according to the research firm Wolfpack, has set up a questionable system of self-promotion of the stock, based on untruthful information about its business.
ClubHouse Media, which until last month was called Tanjji Healthcare and was worth a few cents, rallied: yesterday the stock closed at 27 dollars. There is a doubt that many have bought thinking it is the company of the online event app Clubhouse, which is not listed. ClubHouse Media, based in the Chinese city of Nanning, in the press release announcing the name change at the beginning of the year, says it wants to devote itself to providing marketing services for influencers.
One clerical error will cost Citi half a billion dollars. The New York judge, while acknowledging that the Bank made a payment it didn't owe to Revlon's creditors, will not be able to claim the money back.
WARREN BUFFETT INVESTS 4 BILLION IN CHEVRON
Great protagonists, accomplices of inflation and the great cold, raw materials starting from oil.
North Sea Brent gains 0,2%, to 63,5 dollars a barrel. The collapse in temperatures across North America has caused a drop in production, from about 11 million barrels per day: it would have dropped to 7,5 million barrels these days. North America's largest shale field, the Permian Basin, is shut down.
Chevron, which had closed up 0,7% on market close, rose 3% on news of Warren Buffett's fund entering the capital: Berkshire Hathaway has a $4,1 billion stake. The same entity, it was learned, built an $8,6 billion stake in Verizon and trimmed the stake in Apple.
The other major protagonist was the world of cryptocurrencies.
A BITCOIN IS WORTH AS A KILO OF GOLD
It's just a matter of time. Bitcoin is now worth almost a kilogram of gold. Yesterday, for the first time, the value of the cryptocurrency exceeded 50 euros (50.600) only to then close at 49.452, however, with an increase of 3% during the day and 72% since the beginning of 2021. On the contrary, gold closed lower for the fourth consecutive day, displaced by the rise in yields of US Treasury Notes: Since the beginning of the year, the loss of gold, yesterday at 57.600 euros per kilo, is around -5%.
What makes overtaking probable is the attitude of the market, where many could imitate the example of Tesla who has heavily invested in Bitcoin. In the hands of US corporations, supported by the massive injection of liquidity, there are at least four trillion dollars. Microstrategy, a software company that has $3,5 billion in bitcoin cash (of which $2,3 billion in capital gains) has announced its willingness to issue a bond for $600 million with the aim of buying more bitcoins. Meanwhile, the stocks of cryptocurrency "mines" and related blockchains are taking off: Silvergate Capital, Riot Blockchain and Marathon Patent register gains between 8 and 21%.
BTP AVALANGES: 134 BILLION REQUESTS AT AUCTION
The European stock exchanges allow themselves a break in the long race, even if there are signs of confidence. Indeed, the propensity for risk remains very, very high as demonstrated by the excellent data of the Zew index, which measures the mood of German entrepreneurs and analysts. In January it grew to 71,2 points, from 61,8 previously. Estimates 59,2 points.
But the most eloquent signal of optimism still comes from the Italian bond market, in full Draghi effect. The prime minister will present the government program in the Senate at 10 today and ask for trust.
Before 13 pm yesterday, the day of the offer of 10-year bonds, offers for 110 billion had rained down, an absolute record. In reality, if the 30-year offer is also taken into account, the issue attracted orders for over 134 billion euro, which then fell due to a wave of sales on the T-bond to just over 82 billion : respectively over 65,5 billion (from over 110) for the shorter tranche and over 16,6 from over 24 for the second.
THE SPREAD DOWN TO 90, THE SCISS WITH SPAIN HALVED
The Treasury set the yield of the 10-year tranche at 4 basis points (from the initial 8) on the BTP rate maturing in April 2031 and that of the 30-year tranche indexed at 22 basis points (from the initial 27) on the September BTPEI rate 2041.
The spread on the German Bund is around 90 basis points, 68 points over France, 26 over Spain and 37 over Portugal. According to Luca Cazzulani of Unicredit, the spread is destined to shrink to 75 bp or even 50 if, as various analyzes suggest, between 50 and 90 billion of investments will arrive on Italian securities.
In just three sessions, the Draghi effect has meanwhile halved the gap with the Spanish Bonos, which could soon be zeroed.
According to Citi, if the government manages to spend the money from the Recovery Fund, the yield of the BTP will be very close to that of the Bund.
EUROPEAN EXCHANGES LATCH: BUSINESS AREA -0,69%
The day of the stock lists was more modest. Piazza Affari ended trading in the red, with a performance of -0,69%, at 23.440,8 points.
Frankfurt loses 0,32%, despite the good data on confidence in the economy. Paris floats (+0,1%) on the day of the brilliant debut of Technip Energies (+40%), which brings together the research and engineering activities of the oil group. Flat London (-0,09%). More substantial losses in Madrid (-0,58%).
UTILITIES UNDER FIRE: ENEL -1,9%
“Good company. Good stock. Good time to buy” is the title of the report that UBS dedicated yesterday to Enel (-1,91%), confirming the buy rating and target price of 10 euros, despite the negative season for utilities, held back by the parallel increase in bond yields . It's not just the colossus led by Francesco Starace, a defensive title par excellence, that pays for the change in investor mood. A2a (-2%) and Hera (-1,65%) close in the red. Italgas is also bad (-1,93%).
Realizations also on banks, in particular on Bper (-1,46%). Only Mps (+1,25%) goes against the trend, after the weakness on the eve.
FIREWORKS ON SARAS (+13,7%), SALE SAIPEM
Different script for oil companies. Fireworks on Saras which made a leap of 13,7% and closed trading at 0,729 euro. The stock has gained about 20% in the last month. Supporting the advance is the memorandum of understanding signed with Enel Green Power to build a green hydrogen plant in Sardinia that will supply the Sarroch refinery. The electrolyser will have a capacity of 20 MW, a plant of relevant dimensions for the green hydrogen segment.
Leading the main Saipem index (+1,61%). Tenaris was also positive (+0,16%). Eni -0,48%.
EQUITA PROMOTES NEXI
Buy rating also for Nexi (+0,7%). It was issued by Equita sim, which recently reaffirmed the buy rating with a target price of 18 euros. For analysts, “the new company, strengthened by the Scandinavian acquisition, is able to produce organic growth in turnover and ebitda even before £ synergies.
Cnh (+0,67%), Stellantis (+0,72%) and Campari (+0,73%) are also on positive ground.
APPOINTMENTS, TIME FOR CHOICES FOR TIM AND OPEN FIBER
Decisive hours for the future structures of Tim and Open Fiber. Tomorrow a Telecom Italia board of directors will be held to define a list of names, in addition to that of the president Salvatore Rossi and the CEO Luigi Gubitosi, among which to choose the ten directors supported by the management for the renewal of the board of directors to be voted on at the meeting of March 31st. This list would not yet be defined and can only be finalized after a new Tim council scheduled for Tuesday 23rd.
Before that date, i.e. Monday 22, an extraordinary board of directors of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti is about to be convened, which should be followed closely by a board of directors of Cdp Equity to decide what to do with both Tim and Open Fiber.
THE TAX AGREE WITH MASI FOR THE USE OF THE PATENT BOX
Worth noting is Alerion (+2,71%): Banca Akros has started hedging with a buy rating and a target price of 16,50 euro.
Alkemy (+5,26%) is also highlighted, in the wake of the positive judgments of analysts after the preliminary 2020 results. On Aim, money on Masi Agricola (+0,75%) after the preventive agreement with the Agenzia delle Revenue on the use of the Patent box.
