Rates up, even up to 45-50 basis points compared to July. This is the forecast of the operators interviewed by Radiocor for the new three-year benchmark Btp that the Treasury will offer tomorrow at auction. The yield on the bond maturing in November 2016 should therefore be around 2,80% (after the three-year maturity had reached 2,33% at auction in July), in the light of the generalized rises in European and American rates to which must be added the Italian of the uncertainty about the fate of the Letta government. There should be no problem on the demand side.
The Bot Auction this morning, as expected and to the expected extent, paid the price for Italy's political uncertainty, with annual rates rising to just over 1,30%. This peculiar factor which concentrates on Italian securities adds up to the rise in European and American rates which has been witnessing for some weeks, in the wake of expectations of an end to the purchases of American long-term securities by the Federal Reserve.
Since mid-August, the BTp/Bund spread has risen from 230 to 250 basis points while the 4,50-year yield has risen to over 4,20% from XNUMX%. Yesterday the Spanish Bonos/Bund spread surpassed the Italian one (the spread between the 247-year Iberian bonds and their German counterparts stood at 248 basis points in the morning, while the BTp/Bund spread was at XNUMX).
