Contrasted start of the financial markets in Asia, uncertain about the direction of the main economies, still held back by the problems of logistics that hinder the recovery. Weak Tokyo's Nikkei (-0,3%), Mumbai's Sensex (-0,3%) and Seoul's Kospi (-0,7%). Singapore's Straits Times index and Taipei's Taiex index rose. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists was positive, albeit only slightly. Thanks to exports, Beijing's trade balance improves (84,5 billion dollars in October, from 66,8 billion in September), but imports are lagging behind, confirming that economic activity is struggling to restart.
THE PLENUM AT THE START, XI REWRITES HISTORY
The data comes at the start of a crucial week for Chinese politics: the Central Committee of the Communist Party meets for the last summit before next year's Party Congress. On the agenda is the approval of a "historic resolution", a term used only by Mao in 1945 (condemnation of all dissent) and by Deng Xiao Ping in 1981. This time the meeting will serve to reaffirm the absolute leadership of President Xi through a partisan reinterpretation of the country's recent history.
NASDAQ FUTURE DOWN (-0,4%), TREASURY UP 1,46%
The future of the Nasdaq index is down by 0,4%, a modest adjustment after another triumphal week, the best since April: five consecutive rising sessions (+3,05%) and a string of new records.
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is under control, this morning we are at 1,46%, on the lows of the last month and a half. The spread between the yield on thirty-year and five-year Treasuries, the ratio which indicates the slope of the yield curve, is around eighty basis points, approximately half of the levels reached in the first part of the year, when inflation has started to show itself clearly.
SPOTLIGHT ON INFLATION, CLARIDA SPEAKS TODAY (FED)
In this context, inflation remains the focus of attention. The data on the price increase in October will be released on Wednesday: +5,8% expected (against 5,4%), the highest since 90. On the other hand, the labor market is improving: more than half a million employed in October, unemployment at 4,6%. The issue will be the focus of several Fed speeches today, including that of Vice President Richard Clarida.
THE US INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN IS LAW
After the week of tapering and Wall Street records, today the markets will have to judge Joe Biden's first real victory. The Chamber, in the night between Friday and Saturday, approved with 219 votes in favor against 213 against the infrastructure law which provides for investments of 1.200 billion dollars. 13 Republicans also sided in favor of the measure, compensating for the desertion of the left-wing patrol led by Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, who did not want to know if she was going to approve the package without obtaining in exchange the guarantee of seeing the plan passed in the Senate as well 1.750 billion Build Back Better, for welfare and climate, opposed by centrist senators Joe Manchin (exponent of the coal lobby) and Krysten Sinema.
FACEBOOK ACCUSER IN BREUXELLES TODAY
The euro dollar moved little at 1,156, close to the lows of the last sixteen months. This afternoon the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, speaks at an event dedicated to the currency market.
The European Parliament will dedicate a meeting today to the testimony of Frances Haugen, the former Facebook employee who has launched serious accusations against the ethical management of the multinational led by Mark Zuckerberg.
The Zew index on our German companies is out this week. An Ecofin meeting is also on the agenda.
WTI oil was up 1% to $82,5 a barrel from +3% on Friday.
TESLA, MUSK ASKS FOLLOWERS FOR PERMISSION TO SELL 10%
Analysts are wondering what the impact of the combination of tapering and the green light for public investment will be on the price list. It could be an opportunity to move from the tech sector, at the absolute maximum (+2% the S&P in the week), to other sectors coinciding with the reopening of the US borders to travelers arriving from Europe and many Asian countries.
The challenge regarding the electric car fits into this framework. Elon Musk on Friday launched a question via tweet to Tesla's shareholders: “It is said – he wrote – that I do not sell shares in order not to pay capital gains. So tell me what I have to do: is it okay with you if I sell 10% of Tesla?”. The answer was not long in coming: out of the 3,5 million followers who participated in the vote, 58% advised Musk to sell the package which at current prices is worth just over 20 billion dollars and thus pay 4 billion in taxes. The first because so far Musk has benefited from a complex buy-back system that has allowed him to collect profits as the share rises in almost absolute tax exemption.
TOMORROW THE IPO ON RIVIAN KICKS OFF: IT'S WORTH MORE THAN STELLANTIS
Not surprisingly, the referendum falls on the eve of the new IPO of the century: tomorrow the IPO of Rivian begins, the electric car registration that starts with the booking of 100 cars by Amazon (owner of 20% against 5% of Ford) and the backing of all of big business. Funding is expected to exceed $8 billion for an initial capitalization of $80 billion, more than Stellantis.
On Wall Street, the quarterly reports of Walt Disney and Coinbase should also be followed. Beware of the accounts of Aurora, one of the Cannabis market leaders.
THE ACCOUNTS OF ALLIANZ, SIEMENENS AND PORSCHE ARRIVE
The parade of corporate accounts continues in Europe. Among the most significant: Astra Zeneca, Porsche (Tuesday), Continental, Allianz, Marks & Spencer, Abn Amro (Wednesday), Arcelor Mittal, Siemens (Thursday), Deutsche Telekom (Friday). Aviva and Zurich should also be followed.
FUTURA: THE TREASURE LAUNCHES THE TITLE AT 12 YEARS OLD
The Italian financial scene is dominated today by the launch of the fourth issue of the BTP Futura which should end on Friday, unless closed early. Nor have the fundamental characteristics of the coupon and loyalty bonus mechanism changed, while the duration has been changed (twelve years) compared to the last issue. For the first four years there will be a rate (fixed by the Treasury), for the next four the saver will receive another rate and finally for the last four there will be a further loyalty bonus.
TODAY THE QUARTERLY AVIO, EQUITA GIVES THE DIVIDEND
Among the quarterly reports, Mediaset and Salvatore Ferragamo (Tuesdays) and Pirelli (Thursdays) stand out. Today, pay attention to Avio's accounts and the results of Il Sole 24 Ore on the eve of yet another restructuring.
The distribution of the dividend by Banca Sistema (financial years 2019/2020), Equita (second tranche of the financial year 2020) and eViso (listed on Euronext Growth Milan, formerly AIM Italia) is also envisaged.
The hearing of the CEOs of Unicredit and Mps Orcel and Bastianini is expected in the bicameral commission on the banking system.
HSBC CUT TIM AWAITING THURSDAY SHOWDOWN
The key event of the week will be the showdown at the extraordinary board of Telecom Italia convened for Thursday 11 at the request of Vivendi and the independent directors (including Luce De Meo, CEO of Renault). Telecom Italia, from a low of 0,30 euro, closed the week at 0,34 euro, after rumors about a possible valorisation of the network thanks to the intervention of foreign funds. The first suspect is the American Kkr which took over 37,5% of Fibercop last summer, but also the Anglo-Saxon Bain and CVC and the Swedish Eqt could be interested in participating in the reorganization of Telecom. CEO Luigi Gubitosi is resisting for now. HSBC cuts the judgment to Reduce, target price at 0,28 euro.
