It's easy to say "Norway". In the coming years, the United Kingdom will have to revolutionize its trade relations with the EU and many believe that the best example to follow is the agreement in force between Oslo and Brussels. But it won't be that simple. After the success of the pro-Brexit front in the referendum of 23 June, a thick fog has arisen between the two sides of the Channel.
On a technical level, once it leaves the European single market, the UK could enter the European Economic Area (EEA) or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), imitating countries such as Norway, but also Switzerland or the 'Iceland. However, there would be no agreements of a financial nature, a vital chapter for the British economy.
Furthermore, it is not at all clear what the aim of the Eurosceptic conservatives is. During the electoral campaign for the referendum, the bearers of the "Leave" had said they wanted to abandon the single European market and put an end to free movement. An extreme, intransigent, very electoral and very unrealistic position, also because it would not allow following the famous Norwegian model. Indeed, Oslo contributes to the EU budget and keeps the borders open to the transit of EU citizens. Two fronts on which pro-Brexit leaders should not give in, given that during the referendum campaign they lashed out with particular violence precisely against transfers to the EU and EU immigrants.
To get around the obstacle, the former mayor of London and probable new prime minister Boris Johnson has suggested taking the trade relations between Brussels and Canada as a model, while Justice Minister Michael Gove has even brought Albania into play.
The problem is that none of these options would guarantee the UK access to the European market comparable to that enjoyed by British businesses and citizens today. And it is not a detail, because about half of the country's trade is linked to the EU market. As for the other 50%, Brexit supporters have never made it clear how they intend to replace the more than 50 free trade agreements in force between the EU and other countries in the world such as South Africa and South Korea.
For now, the only certainty is that the negotiations with Brussels will not be quick or peaceful. Also because the stakes are high: London's exports to the EU represent 13% of the British national economy, while EU exports to the UK are worth 3% of the EU economy. Not to mention that several multinationals (Nissan, for example) had set up their European headquarters in the UK because they believed it was the best gateway to the continental market. Now, with Brexit, at least Germany and France will try to take this prerogative away from the United Kingdom.
