In the City, the Brexit effect is already over. Yesterday evening the Ftsie 100 index stopped at 6.360, just above the 6.338 points of the close on Thursday 23, before the outcome of the vote on leaving the European Union. Of course, the pound has depreciated in the meantime. And the Stock Exchange lists tell only a part of the reality. The political fracture, as well as the negative effects on the real economy, respond to different times and dynamics. But the conviction has now taken hold that the fire has been contained and that Brexit will not have the flavor of a systemic crisis. However, duels to the death remain, such as the one between Italy and Germany on the bail-in and the fate of Italian banks. But Brexit, in this case, has little to do with it.
RUN ASIA AND WALL STREET, REJECT USA SANTANDER AND DB
Asian price lists are still advancing: Hong Kong +1,4%, Tokyo +0.9%. Sidney is even better (+1,8%), driven by securities also listed in London. A report from Fitch confirms that the impact of Brexit on Asia will be modest. The real drivers of the region, we read, are the performance of the Chinese economy and the Fed's orientation on rates. Wall Street has already erased more than half of the Brexit effect. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices rose 1,6% yesterday, Nasdaq +1,2%.
There are conflicting signals from the US. Consumption (personal spending) grew by 0,4% in May but existing home sales fell by 3,7%: no one expects the Fed to raise rates any longer this year. The US 1-year yield falls by 1,45 basis point to XNUMX%.
Banco de Santander and Deutsche Bank failed the American stress tests for the second time. General Electric went up (+1,5%) after the Financial Stability Oversight Council found that the group's financial assets, despite their still considerable size, are no longer to be considered a potential systemic risk for the financial market.
EUROPE FLIES, BUT IN MILAN THE REBOUND IS HALF
Madrid (+3,58%) advances behind London (+3,45%). Paris (+2,4%) and Frankfurt (+1,6%) also closed significantly higher. Final under braking in Milan, which closed at +2,21%, at 15.947 points, after having reached a maximum of 16.019 points.
The dollar weakens against the euro to 1,110 and the pound recovers from the abyss: the British currency is trading at 1,350 against the dollar, from 1,334 at yesterday's close.
A day full of macro appointments is announced. Inflation data will be released in Italy.
OIL STARTS AGAIN, THE RECESSION IS NO LONGER SCARY
After the data on the sharp drop in US hydrocarbon stocks, oil accelerated upwards towards 50 dollars: Brent rose by 2,5% to 49,8 dollars, WTI rose by 2,6% to 49,1 dollars .
The protagonists of the stock market were thus energy stocks, which moved under the pressure of the rise in crude oil. The energy sector was the best in the USA (+2,3%) and Europe (Stoxx +4,4%). Britain's BP rose 4,5%, France's Total gained 3,6%. In Piazza Affari Eni gained 4,6%, Saipem +0,9%, Tenaris +5,1%.
No less significant was the contribution of the utility sector: Snam (+4,7%) announced the new industrial plan and the spin-off of the subsidiary Italgas, which will be listed on the Piazza Affari by the end of 2016. Snam shareholders will be assigned one share of the new company for every five Snam shares held. Upon completion of the transaction, Snam will maintain a 13,5% stake, Cdp Reti will have 25,08% and Cdp Gas 0,97%. Enel gained 4,2%, Terna +3%, A2A +3,4%.
BANKS BRAKED FROM ABOVE BY ANGELA MERKEL
“We have defined certain common rules on the resolution of banks and their recapitalization, we cannot change everything every two years”. At the end of the meeting of the 27 EU heads of state and government, Angela Merkel thus rejected the idea that Italy could obtain a window of derogation from the application of the bail-in, i.e. the involvement of investors and depositors in the rescue of banks. "The current bases on recapitalization and resolution - added the head of the German government - offer possibilities for responding to the needs of the member states". As if to say that there is no need to go and create additional spaces.
Matteo Renzi replied immediately, removing the question of the revision of the rules from the European agenda because "even with the current ones we are able to protect savers". And who then launched the thrust: "We respect the rules, the Germans did not" in reference to the breaches of the Berlin Stability Pact in 2003. Italy would have asked the European authorities to be able to put in place new support measures , starting with an Atlante 2 fund sponsored by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti.
UNICREDIT, TODAY THE CHOICE: IN THE RACE VIOLA, PASSERA AND MUSTIER
The response of the markets was no less timely. Banks weakened and some closed lower. Ubi Banca left 5,2% on the ground, Monte Paschi -2,8%, Banco Popolare -3,2%, Pop.Milano -3,3%. The 'no' front to the merger with Banco Popolare: in fact, the "agreement for the Bpm", one of the most representative organizations among former employees, opposed to the merger under the terms currently envisaged, took the field.
Unicredit reduced the increase to +2,5% from +4% in the afternoon. Today the nomination committee should converge on a single candidate or restrict the search to three names: Fabrizio Viola, Corrado Passera and Jean Pierre Mustier, ex Unicredit. Entente +1,4% (from +4%). Mediobanca up sharply (+3,4%). Generali also performed well (+2,4%), despite Kepler Chevreux's departure from the list of favourites.
There is anticipation for the market's acceptance of Carige's business plan approved last night. The strategic plan to 2020 provides for the sale of NPLs for around 900 million by the end of the year and a second portfolio of similar size in the second half of 2017. The closure of 106 branches and a cut of 700 employees are also planned.
TOP TLC: TELECOM +5%. ALSO EQUITA BRAKES FCA
In the rest of the list, the strong increase of Telecom Italia continues (+5,9%) together with the entire TLC sector (European Stoxx for the sector +4,2%). The industrial and luxury stocks moved little. StM -0,3%, Leonardo unchanged. After Goldman Sachs and Mediobanca, Equita is holding back on Fiat Chrysler due to lower post-Brexit sales volumes: the target price drops to 9,2 euros (buy).
Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs lowered their estimates on luxury earnings per share to account for higher post-Brexit market risk. Ferragamo -2,5%, Luxottica- 1,3%.
ADVERTISING PUSHES MEDIASET, EVEN AMAZON WANTS BOMPIANS
Finally the media. In evidence Mediaset (+4%): in 2016, according to findings from the UPA, advertising sales will grow by 3,14%. Mondadori + 0,44%: CEO Ernesto Mauri declared that the Segrate group is ready to make a decision on the destination of Bompiani to be sold by September at the request of the Antitrust. “We received nine expressions of interest from all Italian publishers – he said -, including Elisabetta Sgarbi's La Nave di Teseo, and two from abroad from Amazon and Harper Collins. Now they have to make the non-binding offers within the first week of July, then we will make our choice and in September I hope we will at least know who the buyer will be”.
