There is the Brexit deal. After three years and four months of negotiations, an agreement (the one contracted by Theresa May) rejected three times by the British Parliament and many controversies, the negotiators have found a agreement in extremis on the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
BREXIT: THREE DECISIVE VOTES
When all now seemed lost and the No deal seemed to have become the most plausible hypothesis, Brussels and London managed to find the right balance. The latest tranche of negotiations, which began a few days ago in view of the, was decisive European Council which will open this afternoon, 17 October, at 15,30 and which in all probability will say Yes to the agreement. Instead, the vote of the British Parliament is scheduled for Saturday, while next week the EU Parliament will meet in extraordinary session to approve the agreement. If there are three Yeses, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on 31 October.
BREXIT: THE WORDS OF JUNCKER AND JOHNSON
The announcement came via Twitter from the president of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker and was immediately confirmed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “Where there is a will there is agreement and we have it,” Juncker tweeted. It is a “balanced and fair deal for the EU and the UK and testifies to our commitment to find solutions. I recommend that the European Council make the agreement its own”.
“The negotiators have reached an agreement on a revised protocol on the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and on a new political declaration on the objectives of the future relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom”. In both cases, Juncker underlines in the letter attached to the tweet, there is “the support of the European Commission.
“We have a great new deal that will give us back control” of our country. – Johnson tweeted - "Now Parliament must let Brexit be done“, he went on to confirm that the Westminster vote will take place on Saturday during an extraordinary session. “#GetBrexitDone”.
BREXIT: DUP AND LABOR AGAINST
However, there are those who do not celebrate. The Dup does not like the agreement, the Northern Irish unionist party which announced in the morning that it could not give its support to the hypothesis of a Brexit agreement. “Read our statement. It hasn't changed,” confirmed the Dup, denying reports that spoke of possible support from the party.
“From what we know it seems the prime minister negotiated an even worse deal than May's which was overwhelmingly rejected. These proposals risk unleashing a race to the worst in terms of rights and protections: they risk putting food safety at risk, lowering environmental standards and workers' rights and opening the doors of the health system wide open to takeover operations by the sector private. This sell-off deal will not reunite the country and must be rejected. The best way to overcome the Brexit impasse is to give the people back the opportunity to have their say in a final vote”. This is the official press release Jeremy Corbyn's Labor Party.
The agreement is also rejected Lib Dems, whose leader, Jo Swinson, says: “The fight to stop Brexit is far from over. Boris Johnson's deal would be bad for our economy, bad for our public services, bad for our environment,” she said.
Nicola Sturgeon, number one of Scottish Nationalist Party he said: “The Brexit envisioned by Boris Johnson envisages an even more vague relationship with the EU, when it comes to issues such as food standards, environmental protection and workers' rights. Scotland has not voted for Brexit in any form and SNP MPs will not vote for Brexit in any form.
The British Parliament's approval for the agreement at this point is far from obvious and analysts are already busy counting the possible votes in favor or against. Johnson has decided to go all out and has announced that on Saturday morning he will present a proposal in which he will ask the Municipalities to vote in favor of the agreement or for a "no deal". However, the wording of the motion has already been contested by the opposition, who want to enforce the anti-no deal law approved in early September.
However, the EU has already been clear: in the event that the British Parliament rejects the law, there will be no further extension.
BREXIT: THE REACTION OF THE MARKETS
The white smoke on Brexit immediately unleashed the reaction of the European Stock Exchanges: the best is Frankfurt (+0,9%), Milan rises by 0,8%, London gains 0,6%. Paris and Madrid were also positive, up by 0,46% and 0,83% respectively.
Runs the pound: +0,5% against the euro at 1,1626, while the cross with the dollar is at 1,2990 against the dollar.
BREXIT: WHAT THE AGREEMENT PROVIDES
The agreement is based on the one already contracted in November 2018, but there are some important changes. The first concerns the Irish question, which is to say the main reason why from 2016 to 2019 the EU and the UK never managed to approve an agreement. Northern Ireland will respect the customs rules of the rest of the Kingdom, but will also remain aligned with the European Customs Union. There are no physical borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland, nor checkpoints, but there will be a trade border where all goods will filter into the Irish Sea. Here a double mode of application of duties will be introduced: the British ones will weigh on the goods that will remain in Belfast, the European ones on all other products.
The second novelty concerns the commitment undertaken by the United Kingdom not to compete unfairly with EU countries once the transition period is completed. The new political declaration also envisages a free trade agreement with zero tariffs and quotas between the EU and the United Kingdom.
Finally, it is established that it is not the Dup, but the entire Irish parliament that will have a say on the agreement in four years time, i.e. when Northern Ireland will have to decide autonomously and definitively which side it is on.
