The push of the Bull is so robust that it overcomes every obstacle, from the risk of hard Brexit, scaled down by Theresa May's step backwards, to the fragility of the Italian accounts now at the center of daily criticism in every location. But the markets, under the pressure of the reassurances of the central banks, prefer to look at the comforting news arriving from China and the USA. It matters little that the report of the Asian Development Bank signals a slowdown in the growth of the emerging economies of Asia: from +6,2% in 2017 to +5,7% this year, in 2020 it will drop to +5,6 .XNUMX%.
These data could soon be revised upwards if there is a great peace on tariffs between Beijing and Washington. Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He arrived in Washington yesterday evening for a round of negotiations that could be crucial, even if not yet decisive. The agreement, writes the Financial Times, could come at the same time as the G20 in Japan, just in time to solemnize the beginning of the Reiwa era, i.e. "Harmony and Fortune", with the advent of the new emperor Naruhito on July XNUMXst.
THUD IN WALGREEN'S WALL STREET, IRON BOOM
In the meantime, the lists signal new increases. Asian stocks are up. Tokyo is starting to close up 0,9%. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets gains half a point. Seoul's Kospi rose 0,5%, Sydney's S&P/ASX 0,8%.
The advance of the US markets continues: Dow Jones +0,3%, S&P 500 +0,05%, Nasdaq +0,25%. The rise was hampered by Walgreen's warning: -12,8% after the publication of the accounts of the US pharmacy giant controlled by Stefano Pessina.
Fourth consecutive day of rising oil, Brent is trading this morning in Singapore at 69,7 dollars a barrel, +0,5%, on the highest since November.
The return of risk appetite coincides with the rise of commodities. But the drop in Brazilian exports of ferrous metals contributes to favoring the price increase: the reference futures rise by 4% (+ 38,7% since the beginning of the year). The Brasilia authorities have ordered mining companies to close more than fifty dams containing wastewater used in the processing of iron ore extracted from the subsoil: in January, one of these had given way, causing dozens of victims.
The awakening of bitcoin is even more spectacular and unexpected. Yesterday the cryptocurrency made a sensational rebound: +22%, over the $5.000 barrier. The consistency of the rebound will be understood today: resurrection or late April Fool's?
THERESA MAY BENDS AND SENDS SOS TO CORBYN
No less adventurous is Theresa May's last-ditch attempt to reach an agreement that would allow the hard Brexit to be averted with the contribution of Labour. The turning point was anticipated yesterday by the leap forward of the Stock Exchange +1,02%. The pound also finished up 0,3% in anticipation of the next twists and turns.
THE EURO STARTS AGAIN AFTER EIGHT DAYS OF REDUCTIONS
A more relaxed climate also for the Eurozone. The euro rebounded this morning to 1,122 against the dollar, after eight consecutive sessions of decline. Futures signal an upward opening both in Frankfurt and in Paris, waiting this morning for the services PMI indices which should do better than the catastrophic manufacturing indexes.
The Italian Stock Exchange closed the day with an imperceptible rise of 0,01% to 21.522 points on the highest since last October.
The launch of the new decree on the Pir seems imminent. The hypothesis, circulated in recent days, of a gradual introduction of the new restrictions would have been set aside.
The rest of the Eurozone is much better. The best place is Frankfurt (+0,61%); comforted by the indications on the car in profit from China. Paris +0,33%; Madrid +0,35%.
IMF ALERT. JUNCKER “WORRIED” ABOUT ITALY
“Global growth has lost its momentum and is amid mounting trade tensions and tougher financial conditions, but pauses in the rate-hiking process will help propel economic activity forward in the second half of 2019.” This was stated by the director general of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde in view of the spring meetings of the Fund and the World Bank.
Lagarde explained that the economy is "uncertain" after two years of steady growth, and the outlook is "precarious" and vulnerable to trade, Brexit and financial market shocks.
The President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker says he is "slightly worried" to see that the Italian economy "continues to regress" and hopes that the government will make "additional efforts to keep growth alive".
The Italian economy for 2019 is seen as flat by observers such as the Confindustria Study Center while the OECD believes it will record a contraction of 0,2%. Even the Minister of the Economy, Giovanni Tria, a few days after the presentation of the Def, said that for this year we are heading "towards zero".
THE SPREAD WIDES TO 257, PIRELLI AND STM SHINE
The pressure on the Italian debt is once again being felt. On the secondary, the 2,53-year yield rises to 257,8% and the spread with the Bund widens to 1,38 basis points (+XNUMX%).
Few ideas on the price list of Piazza Affari. Pirelli stands out (+2,9%) driven by the recognition of a maxi-tax credit in Brazil. Stm also stands out (+2,3%).
Fiat Chrysler also rose (+1%) despite the significant drop in registrations in Italy which fell by 9,6% year on year. The brands of the group close the month at -19,5% (Alfa Romeo -55%).
In the letter to Exor shareholders (-0,3%), John Elkann considers a change in the ownership structure of FCA, but not an exit from the capital. Elkann confirms his confidence in the CEO of Ferrari (-0,1%) and anticipates the industrial plan of CNH Industrial for the second part of the year (+0,3%).
Buzzi still up (+1,01): Mediobanca Securities raised its target price from 21 to 21,3 euro, confirming the outperform recommendation.
MONEY ON UTILITIES AND FALCK RENEWABLES FLIES
Money also on utilities. Brilliant Acea (+1,4%) which plans to close in 2022 with 1,3 billion euros of Ebitda, +36% on 2018. The business plan provides for 4 billion euros of investments, dividends of 800 million. Acsm-Agam also did well (+2,8%). Snam +0,5% and Italgas +0,7%.
Among the negative notes Tim (-2,1%), the worst title in the main list: the spread with savings at historic lows does not help, which effectively excludes a conversion with ordinary ones.
Mediaset -0,15%. It still makes sense to think of an international aggregation after the shipwreck of the project with Vivendi said Fedele Confalonieri. “It made sense to do something European as it still has,” said Confalonieri, who didn't go too far on the timing of an agreement with an international partner.
UNICREDIT TOWARDS AGREEMENT WITH THE USA ON IRAN
Opposed the bankers. The sector index lost 0,6% but closed above the lows reached in the morning. Unicredit -0,5% after the leap of more than 4% on the eve. The institute is about to reach an agreement with
US authorities over allegations that the bank provided clearing services to Iranian customers in violation of US sanctions. People familiar with the matter cite it.
GENERALI, MEDIOBANCA CONFIRM GALATERI
Generals -0,2%. Mediobanca presented its list for the renewal of the company's board of directors in the evening: the confirmation of CEO Philippe Donnet is taken for granted, Gabriele Galateri remains chairman.
In the rest of the list, Falck Renewables flies (+8%). ASTM drops by 0,7% after the downgrade of Kepler Cheuvreux. Money also on Molmed (+7%). The stock is periodically invested by speculation after the authorization in Italy for clinical trials of Car-T.
