Share

Brexit: agreement, no deal, postponement, referendum. Here are all the scenarios

May again defeated in Parliament also on the new agreement with the EU which provided for an agreement on the backstop for the Irish border: Corbyn against the agreement - Here's what could happen and what are the scenarios that open up on the divorce between the UK and the EU

Brexit: agreement, no deal, postponement, referendum. Here are all the scenarios

March 29 is approaching and the British Parliament prepares to decide on Brexit. There are three votes expected this week and a decision will finally have to be made.

The latest news is that the agreement between May and the EU rejected two months ago it was sunk again yesterday by the Brutanic Parliament (391 votes against and only 242 in favor) even in the new version agreed at the beginning of the week in Strasbourg. But the British premier is not giving up and she is not resigning and today she will once again face the Westminster vote on the no deal hypothesis.

“We have agreed on legally binding changes to our agreement,” British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced triumphantly at a joint (and nighttime) conference in Strasbourg on Monday. "Sometimes there is a second chance," Juncker underlined. “The British Parliament had expressed doubts about the Irish backstop. Now we have the reassurances,” May added. But it didn't go as they hoped and now the risk of chaos, i.e. a disorderly exit of the UK from the EU, is very strong.

BREXIT: VOTES IN PARLIAMENT

Against all odds, therefore, yesterday May went to Parliament with a new agreement. However, this did not mean that the new text will certainly be approved and in fact it has not been. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn speaks of "farce" after having asked and obtained from Parliament to vote no.

At this point, on 14 March the House of Commons will be called today to vote on the no deal and, if, as is probable, the motion is rejected, it will have to vote on the extension of Article 50, i.e a postponement of Brexit, even if "short", specified the prime minister.

The deadline set for Brexit, which is currently 29 March, could therefore be moved forward by a few months. There is already an indicative date: the end of June or, at the latest, the beginning of July to avoid London still being part of the EU when the new community parliament takes office. In the event of an extension, the British will not participate in the European elections in May.

To obtain a deferment, the UK will need to send an official request for an extension which will need to be approved by all EU member states. A request that this time should be accepted without too many problems.

BREXIT: THE REACTION OF THE MARKETS

In this context the markets prepare for the vote of March 12 in a continuous swing of the London Stock Exchange and GBP..

According to an indiscretion reported by the Financial Times, the Bank of England would have asked the main UK banks to triple the value of easily liquidated assets in view of any tensions linked to the divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

comments