The political unknown no longer scares, at least for now. And so the markets can enjoy the oil rally and the big quarterly show in peace, the best in recent years so far. In this idyllic setting, the signs of a recovery in inflation, which rears its head in the US in the wake of oil, are not frightening. The party could be spoiled by the executive of the ECB if the intention to reduce the purchases of securities on the markets emerges from today's meeting. Conversely, Frankfurt could already approve the 6-month extension of the Qe purchase program today. Moreover, the recovery of the banking sector contributes to calming the climate.
ASIA AT THE HIGHEST FOR A MONTH. OIL STOCKS TO THE STARS
The US markets made a further, albeit small, step forward: Dow Jones and S&P 500 +0,22%. The Nasdaq closed up 0,05%. The Beige Book, the periodic report on the country's conditions by the Federal Reserve (Beige Book), confirmed that the economy is growing slowly but steadily.
Oil prices are on fire: +1,9% for Brent, +2,6% for WTI crude. Among the reasons for the boom are the drop in US stocks and the declarations of Saudi Energy Khalid al Falih according to which many countries, inside and outside OPEC, are ready to cut production. Yesterday, Saudi very successfully placed its first bond which raised 17,5 billion dollars.
The energy sector advances on Wall Street: +1,4%, the highest increase in the last seven sessions. Oil equipment is doing even better, driven by Halliburton (+4,2%). The European oil sector index rises by 1%. In Piazza Affari Eni rose by 0,3%, Tenaris +0,9%.
Saipem +4%: Goldman Sachs reiterated its "buy" recommendation on the stock, readjusting the 0,60-month target price to 0,59 from 12 euro. Goldman expects a downward revision of its 2017 guidance when it releases its third quarter results but considers it "an opportunity given that in our view the fundamentals remain attractive with strong cash generation and we see positive momentum with new contracts".
QUARTERLY RECORDS, NEVER SO GOOD FOR THREE YEARS
The earnings campaign continues at full speed: 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 index that submitted their accounts beat the estimates. According to Thomson Reuter, earnings are set to rise for the first time in five quarters.
In particular, the parade of US banks' records continues, supported by the proceeds of bond trading activities. Morgan Stanley +1,9%: revenues from bond trading tripled to 1,5 billion, 500 million more than estimates. The net result rose by 57% to 1,6 billion.
Intel was the worst performer among large companies with a 4% decline. The chipmaker said it closed the third quarter with sales of $15,8 billion, up 9,1%. But forecasts for the coming months are disappointing.
Optimism infected Asian stock markets this morning. The Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific index pushes to the highs of the last four weeks thanks to the progress of the Tokyo (+1,4%) and Hong Kong (+0,7%) stock exchanges. On parity Shanghai and Seoul. Up Mumbai (+0,5%). The Nintendo title shines in Tokyo: the company announced via Twitter that it will present the new video game console in New York today.
BUSINESS PLACE OVER 17 THOUSAND. BTP ITALIA STOP AT 2,2 BILLION
Positive European stock markets on the eve of the ECB meeting and, above all, of Mario Draghi's press conference scheduled for 14 pm. Opening with a plus sign is expected in London and in the other main stock exchanges. In the morning there will be the announcement of the accounts of some big Europeans: Nestlé, Roche, Pernod Ricard.
Always lively Piazza Affari, +0,46% yesterday. The Ftse Mib index returned above 17, closing at 17.044 points, still far from the levels at the beginning of the year (21 points). The other markets are on positive territory: the Paris Stock Exchange gained 0,2%, Frankfurt +0,1%, Madrid +1%. The euro is weak, at 1,0978 against the dollar, pending the meeting of the BCE.
The collection of orders for the new Btp Italia October 2,216 from retail customers closed with a total of 2024 billion euros. Yesterday orders stopped at 366 million, to which must be added 1,85 billion of demand between Monday and Tuesday. In the first three days of the April edition, the stock had attracted a demand of 4,232 billion. On the agenda today is the placement with institutional investors
STILL ON MPS SCUDI, FIREWORKS ON BIM
Still on the shields in Piazza Affari Monte Paschi (+7% to 0,21 euro), a stock symbol of the comeback of the Italian banking sector which, flat until mid-session, gained around 1,6% in the final. The stock of the Sienese bank remains in the spotlight thanks to the attention paid to the project presented by Corrado Passera, which envisages a more limited recourse to the capital increase (2,5 billion against 5) compared to the plan envisaged by JP Morgan and Mediobanca. The ex-minister's proposal will be examined after the approval of the industrial plan scheduled for the 24th. labor unions.
After the launch of the merger between Bpm and Banco Popolare (+0,3%) the dossier on the possible three-way agreement that could involve Creval (+7,6%), Popolare di Sondrio (+6%) and the Bank comes to the fore Popolare of Emilia Romagna (+5%), which has set the meeting for the transformation into a joint stock company for November 26th. The CEO of Bper, Alessandro Vandelli, said that the two Valtellina banks "are entities with which we have excellent relations, maybe we could do something with them".
On the shields Bim (+26,6%). The Bank yesterday acknowledged the resignation of the Board of Directors and resolved to summon the directors in office on the date of the meeting in order to allow for the installation of a new top management. With the markets closed, the president Maurizio Lauri reiterated in a note that the bank is a strategic asset for the parent company. The BoD "intends to relaunch the bank's activities in Italian Private Banking with strength and determination".
Positive day for Intesa (+0,6%) and Unicredit (+1%). Among the insurance companies, Unipol (+2,1%) and UnipolSai (+1%) gained. Generals +0,4%.
MEDIASET-VIVENDI: THE BREAK IS FINAL
Telecom Italia slips (-0,1%), despite the good indication of the CEO Flavio Cattaneo, who announced a "double-digit" growth in September of customers with a fixed network. Icbpi confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price of 1,07 euros on the stock, defining Cattaneo's declarations on the fact that the group is not interested in acquiring Oi as positive.
Definitive split between Mediaset (+0,07%) and Vivendi. "Under the current circumstances, Vivendi is currently no longer willing to prioritize the search for an amicable solution and reserves the right to take all necessary actions to defend its interests and those of its shareholders." "We acknowledge - was the reply of the subsidiary Fininvest - that the dispute will be resolved in court".
According to Nielsen data, the advertising investment market in Italy in the first eight months of the year shows growth of 3,2% on an annual basis.
Among industrial stocks, StM rose (+0,5%). Liberum reiterated the buy recommendation and the target price of 8,5 euros on the stock. Exane Bnp Paribas (outperform) sees an increase in consensus estimates. Prysmian (-0,7%) was the black jersey in the wake of rumors about the next quarterly report.
