The Nikkei index surpassed 29.000 points this morning in Tokyo, as it hasn't happened for 30 years. Japan is studying the easing of anti-Covid measures, the first step towards next summer's Olympics. Meanwhile, the contagion bulletin in China does not report new cases in the territory of the People's Republic at the beginning of the week for the celebrations of the Lunar New Year. Two good pieces of news frame the most awaited data: despite the perplexities that have also emerged in the Democratic area (see the criticisms of Lawrence Summers who fear the effects on inflation), the White House goes straight on the 1.900 billion euro stimulus bill dollars.
THE USA: INFLATION IS NOT A SCARY FOR NOW
Janet Yellen, new US Treasury minister, told CNN on Sunday that “inflation is certainly a risk we will have to run. There are too many jobs at risk in the weakest groups ". If the law is passed, Yellen promises, full employment will be achieved within a year.
As a consequence, the yield bar on ten-year Treasury Notes rose, weakening to 1,18%, from 1,16%. We are in the eighth consecutive session of the increase in the differential between the two-year and the ten-year, to 107 basis points, the maximum of the last three and a half years.
ASIA PACIFIC INDEX AT HIGHEST. THE NIKKEI BUCA QUOTE 29 THOUSAND
The price list race promises to continue in this framework. The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0,7% this morning, a new all-time high following several recent records. On Friday, the MSCI World All Countries global index, which includes 50 local indices: S&P500 and Nasdaq, closed at highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rises (+0,5%). CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +1%. Mumbai BSE Sensex +1,2%
HIUNDAY-APPLE IS NO MORE
In South Korea, where the effects of under-capacity that has led to a shortage of semiconductors are beginning to be felt, the Seoul Kospi index is down 0,7%. The case of the day is Hyundai: the automaker has announced that negotiations with Apple on the self-driving electric car have been closed without success. The subsidiary Kia, the one that should have had the most benefits from the industrial agreement, loses 13%.
BRENT TOWARDS 60 DOLLARS, GOLD DOWN
Brent oil is approaching 60 dollars a barrel: this morning North Sea crude is at 59,9 dollars, +1%. Exxon Mobil Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said he was looking for a strong partner with whom to deal with worsening market conditions. The suspect is probably Chevron.
Gold at 1.812 dollars, little moved from -1,8% last week, the worst in two months. The quotation has slipped to its lowest level since the beginning of December.
SPREAD AT 98. MARKET PLACE NOW AIMS AT 24 THOUSAND
The other engine of market optimism is closer to us. Spread on the Bund at 98 points, at 39 on the Spanish bonos, yield on the ten-year BTP at 0,53% and rise in the FTSE MIB by 7% in five days. The Bel Paese has never achieved such a spectacular performance in such a short time. The perspective of landing of Mario Draghi at Palazzo Chigi has thus triggered a virtuous cycle which now awaits confirmation. At 15 the president in charge Mario Draghi will begin the second round of consultations, before reporting to Colle tomorrow evening or Wednesday. An indication on urgent interventions and on the government team is expected from the new round, which could already be sworn in this Friday. In the meantime, the prime minister in charge will be able to continue to count on the approval of the markets.
Erik Nielsen, chief economist of Unicredit, has calculated that, taking into account both the gains in terms of spreads and the increase in the value of bank assets, the Draghi effect has given 25 billion to Italian finance. According to the technical analysis, the break on the Stock Exchange of the previous yearly tops in the area of 23 points opens the way for extensions towards 24/24.500 points.
Wednesday's auction of 12-month Treasury bonds will provide a first opportunity to evaluate the market's appreciation of Italian risk: 7 billion securities will be auctioned against 9,5 billion maturing. Thursday will be the turn of medium-long term securities.
The markets are also awaiting reassurance from Christine Lagarde's message to the European Parliament, who has already reiterated that monetary support and anti-crisis budgets "should not be eliminated too soon".
The ECB's growth forecasts will be released on Wednesday: according to experts, 2021 growth will be lower than that already forecast in November: 3,9% against 4,2%, a slowdown linked to the second wave of the pandemic: according to Eurostat, they went up in smoke in the four most important economies (France, Germany, Spain and Italy) 3.100 billion, or about a third of gross domestic product, including subsidies to businesses and workers.
IMPEACHMENT OF TRUMP, DEMOCRATICS TRY AGAIN
The impeachment proceedings for Donald Trump, accused of having played an active role in the invasion of Capitol Hill last January 2024, will open in Washington on Tuesday. If uncertainty prevails over the duration, this is not the case for the outcome: in the absence of a two-thirds majority, acquittal is granted. The former president is contemplating re-nomination in XNUMX or founding a party, depending on how the Republicans vote in the Senate.
ACCOUNTS OF INTESA TO BE EXAMINED BY THE STOCK EXCHANGE, MUSTIER'S FAREWELL
Intesa's excellent accounts will face market scrutiny today. The institute closed 2020 with a net book profit of 3,3 billion and is once again distributing a dividend of 3,57 cents per share in the year characterized by the Covid health emergency and the acquisition of Ubi Banca.
On the corporate front, the accounts of Mediobanca are also to be followed in Piazza Affari during the week. On Thursday, Jean-Pierre Mustier will take his leave of Unicredit on the day of accounts.
To follow the annual results of AstraZeneca, the manufacturer of the European vaccine. In the USA, GM's accounts will be an opportunity to measure the depth of the semiconductor crisis which has forced several manufacturers to cut production.
