The Omicron variant freezes the hot spirits of Taurus after the Christmas records. Sales prevail on Asian price lists, while the tug of war with Russia on gas weighs on Europe. The most positive note comes from the balance of Christmas sales in the USA: +11% compared to a year ago, thanks however to a new leap forward in e-commerce, confirming that the contagion has returned to scare everywhere. One in 10 people in London has been infected, Germany locks up the unvaccinated, in Italy there are 24.883 new infections and 81 deaths; the positivity rate rises to 11,5% due to the low number of swabs. Last week there were an average of 150 new Covid cases a day in the United States, “but the number will go up a lot,” said Anthony Fauci, Joe Biden's emergency adviser. And so, from Times Square to Marina Bay (Singapore), from the Champs Elysées to the Italian squares, the New Year's party is renounced.
WEAK TOKYO, RECORD OF CONTAGIONS IN XIAN
Down this morning Tokyo (-0,2%) and the Korean Kospi (-0,1%). China reports the highest number of infected for 21 months. The number of patients in Xian, the most affected city, doubled over the weekend. The CSI 300 of Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped 0,4%. Australia, Hong Kong and Britain are among the markets closed today for public holidays.
THOUSANDS OF FLIGHTS SUSPENDED, OIL CONTRAST
Futures on the European Stock Exchanges and on the American stock markets showed slight progress. A tough day ahead for airline stocks as thousands of flights have been canceled due to lack of crews, impacted by Omicron. The cruise sector is in crisis.
Oil contrasted this morning: Brent rose to 76,40 dollars a barrel (+26 cents), Wti slightly down.
RUSSIA STOPS AGAIN GAS FOR EUROPE
A very short week begins, lasting only three days (two for the London Stock Exchange, which is closed today), with a reduced turnover, as is customary during holidays. But geopolitical tensions are clouding the horizon: once again yesterday the West-facing Russian natural gas taps remained closed, an eloquent form of pressure for the Ukrainian crisis, only partially relieved by the convoys of gas tankers arriving from the USA.
The tug of war threatens to jeopardize the end-of-the-year rally of the stock markets, which are nonetheless heading towards a very positive year: the S&P 500, at a record level, rises by 26% with a p/o ratio of 22 times (against 19 by a year ago). Piazza Affari, in line with the other European markets, follows with a flattering +22%.
GURU CAUTIOUS ON BAGS: MORGAN STANLEY SEE THE YEAR IN RED
Much more cautious are the forecasts for 2022, the third year under the threat of Covid-19, conditioned by the rise in inflation and, consequently, by the upward movement in interest rates. According to Wall Street Journal, the average of the banks (thirteen in all) that have published forecasts for next year results in a 4,5% rise in the indices. The most optimistic is BMO Bank, which is betting on +12% thanks to the boost in corporate profits. The most negative is Morgan Stanley: -6,9% for the S&P, which slips to 4.400 points.
BONDS DON'T PARTY AFTER A BLACK YEAR
The recovery prospects for bonds are also weak, even though they are starting to archive the worst year since 1999 with an average loss of 4,8%. The growth in yields on the US T bond (from 0,93 to 1,49% on ten years, from 0,12 to 0,65) was certainly not sufficient to deal with the rise in US inflation, above 6%. And the financial repression is destined to continue next year as well. "The more you raise rates this year - says Nick Hayes of Axa - the more you risk making an embarrassing retreat next year".
In a sad setting, conditioned by the renunciation of end-of-year celebrations, the world focuses on the future; the two most awaited year-end financial appointments by the market concern the technology of tomorrow.
METAVERSE, BAIDU GATHERS THE DEVELOPERS. AN ETF IN THE USA
More than one hundred thousand developers will follow the work of the conference organized by the Chinese Baidu on the metaverse, the virtual world that is not only followed by Mark Zuckerberg but also includes developments in autonomous driving, quantum computers and biocomputing. Meanwhile, the front of companies involved in 3D virtual reality is expanding. The Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF is doing great on Wall Street, investing in Nvidia, Roblox, Microsoft, Meta Platform and Unity Software.
Great expectations also for the news of the Taiwan conference on chip news. At the center of the event there will obviously be the giant Tsmc.
ITALY, THE MANEUVER AT THE START. WAITING FOR THE MESSAGE FROM MATTARELLA
Meanwhile, after the green light from the Senate, the budget law arrives tomorrow in the House for final approval by December 31st, which does not seem to present any particular obstacles for the majority. On the political level, the next appointment on the agenda is Sergio Mattarella's end-of-year speech. “If Italy dismisses Draghi, prepare your helmet”, writes Mattia Feltri.
MOONEY PASSES UNDER THE CONTROL OF ENEL AND INTESA
In Piazza Affari, even though it is almost a holiday season, there is no shortage of reasons for interest. Enel and Intesa have signed an agreement with the private equity fund CVC for the acquisition of 70% of Mooney, a fintech payment company valued at 1,385 billion euros. Enel will acquire 50% of Mooney's capital, while Intesa Sanpaolo, which currently holds 30% through Banca 5, will increase its stake to 50%.
LOANS FROM SAIPEM AND FIBER COP TO START
Saipem has resolved to renew the EMTN issuance program for one year, confirming the maximum amount of 3 billion, of which 2,5 billion in issues outstanding as at 23 December.
FiberCop, the infrastructure operator of the Tim Group, has signed a new 1,5 billion euro loan agreement with a 5-year maturity with a pool of international banks. For Tim, the operation contributes to the debt refinancing plan which will expire in 2022.
IVECO, ALL READY FOR THE DEBUT ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
The CNH shareholders' meeting almost unanimously approved the spinoff of Iveco, specialized in the production of industrial vehicles and buses.
