To dominate, as expected, is the volatility. Yesterday the US markets, which rose strongly in the morning, lost more than one percentage point when it became known of the first hospitalization of a patient infected with the Omicron variant in the US. The Dow Jones (-1,3%) fluctuated, between the high and low of the session, by a thousand points, the widest daily variation for over a year.
But in the course of the night i Wall Street futures rallied, now the S&P500 anticipates a start up 0,6%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific is on par this morning. The change in market sentiment that took place overnight is to be associated with the positions taken by the scientific community following the pandemic. WHO said vaccines are likely able to protect against more aggressive variants. The Chief Medical Officer of Australia, Paul Kelly, has released a video message in which he states that there is currently no evidence on the greater mortality of the Omicron variant, it would appear instead that it is less deadly than the others.
Il Taurus is therefore at the mercy of the pandemic, even if the performance of the real economy is comforting, so strong as to support the tensions in the rise of market rates. The employment trend improves in the USA, as does the Ism index. Europe is also keeping pace. But the real news is that the locomotive this time is in Southern Europe, Italy in the lead. At this point, a Christmas rally cannot be ruled out, Omicron permitting.
And the Bloomberg Asia Pacific index was equal this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo marks a drop of 0,4% in the final session. Hang Seng of Hong Kong and CSI 300 of Shanghai and Shenzen lists rise by 0,3%. Seoul's Kospi is up 1,3%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai +0,9%.
Some Asian companies in the supply chain are down Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC),, after Bloomberg wrote of a drop in demand for the iPhone 13.
Wall Street futures rallied overnight, now the S&P500 anticipates a 0,6% rise. Yesterday, Dow Jones -1,34%, S&P -1,18%, Nasdaq -1,83% closed.
To be noted the Salesforce thud -11.7% under pressure from Microsoft's competitors.
Brent and WTI oil are up 1,3% on the day of the meeting of OPEC+ members.
Euro dollar slightly moved at 1,131.
There is the new collapse of Turkish lira, after the dismissal of the finance minister, the only opponent of Erdogan's interest rate policy, replaced by an industrialist very close to the president. Yesterday the central bank intervened to protect the currency. The Turkish lira dollar cross is up 1,7%.
ITALY OF RECORDS: UP THE GDP, THE OECD RAISES GROWTH AGAIN
European stock exchanges have a significant upturn on Wednesday, before Wall Street's about-face on the new variant of the covid. But yesterday the OECD's Economic Outlook warned that Covid-19 remains the number one threat to global recovery, especially if, says chief economist Boone, "we don't proceed to vaccinate everyone quickly and thus solve the supply knots chain and calm prices”. In this complicated context, Italy receives a new note of merit: the Italian GDP will rise this year by 6,3%, better than the 6% estimated in September but also that of the Eurozone (5,1%) and the US economy 5,6%: it hasn't happened since the beginning of the new millennium. The confirmation comes from other economic data: Italian manufacturing grows for the 17th month in a row and the PMI index reaches a new all-time high at 62,8, well over the 50-point threshold which indicates the separation between economic contraction and expansion.
THE SPREAD WIDES, THE ECB HAS DOUBTS ABOUT NEW PURCHASES
Closing down sharply for the Italian bond.
The ten-year rate stands at 1,02% with a maximum of 1,06%.
The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds rose to 135 basis points (+4,7%) with a peak of 137 points.
Meanwhile, according to Reuters, a growing number of ECB advisers are considering the possibility of postponing the decision on the future of the stimulus programs, already scheduled for the December 16 meeting. The discussion is about whether or not to close the Pepp purchase program by March but also how much debt to buy after that date.
OVER 6 THOUSAND BILLION BONDS BELOW ZERO
The amount of negative-yielding government debt in the eurozone reached a three-month high in November, at $6.190 trillion versus $4.900 trillion the previous month.
OIL SUPPORTS STOCKS, ROBOT MOWER BOOMS
Piazza Affari gains 2,16% and reaches 26.371 points, thanks to the return of purchases of cyclical stocks.
The other price lists are also appreciated: Frankfurt +2,5%; Paris +2,4%; Amsterdam +1,71%; Madrid +1,75%; London +1,55%.
Oil (TotalEnergies +3,26%) and raw materials are running.
- To report Husqvarna; The world's largest maker of electric garden tools, was up 4,7% after improving its overall financial goals and growth prospects for robotic lawnmowers and other battery-powered products.
STELLANTIS FLYES, BUT TAVARES LAUNCHES AN SOS FOR THE SECTOR
At Piazza Affari and in Paris Stellantis +5,66% takes off on a difficult day for the automotive sector: only 104476 vehicles were registered in Italy in November, with a drop of 25% compared to a year ago. But the Italian market is not an exception. Indeed, Carlos Tavares from Detroit celebrated the stock market extension with some simply dramatic considerations: the pressure to accelerate the transition to electric, he said, could jeopardize employment in the sector and the quality of vehicles due to the difficulty of companies in managing higher production costs. “The sector must bear 50% of the extra costs that we will not be able to pass on to end customers”. And it's not an isolated affliction. In the first two months of 2021, Stellantis surpassed Volkswagen's sales for the first time.
EXOR AND CNH ALSO RUN
In the Agnelli team, Exor also shines + 2,75% the day after the Investor Day. Equita sim confirmed the buy rating, with a target price of 100 euros, and among the main salient points it reports that the company is working hard to finalize the memorandum of understanding to sell PartnerRe to Covea by the end of the year, the confirmation of a fixed annual dividend of 100 million (in line with expectations), the buyback in the period 2022-24 equal to 500 million (in light of the current high discount on the nav.Mediobanca securities' opinion is instead outperform with a target price of 101 euro.
CNH Industrial +3,38%: analysts appreciated the closing of the acquisition of Raven Industries in the USA, a leader in precision agriculture technology.
Stm advances +4,3% following Apple's earnings on Wall Street. More than 2% the earnings of Pirelli and Leonardo.
RECORD BANKS, LIKE ORCEL CUTS
Unicredit stands out among the banks +4% pending the Investor Day. There will be 3 (all on a voluntary basis) the redundancies of the bank led by Andrea Orcel. Rises over 2% for Banco Bpm, Bper and Intesa San Polo. Vola Monte Paschi +16,73 after the resumption of contacts with the Ministry of the Treasury in view of the negotiations with the European Central Bank. Banca Carige is also in fibrillation +8,2%.
OF THE OLD TO 5,96% IN GENERAL, BERENBERG PROMOTES ENI
The long march of the Caltagirone/Del Vecchio duo towards Generali continues. Thanks to new purchases Delfin has risen to 5,96% , the shareholders' agreement between the two counts on 14,52% of the capital.
Petroleum products are in evidence. Eni rises by 2,2% after the buy of Berenberg. Tenaris does even better: +4% after the confirmation of the contract for the gas project in Qatar.
TELECOM, VIVENDI/CDP DIALOGUE TESTS
Money on Telecom Italia +1,5% while the scenarios around the telephone group are multiplying. The KKR offer evaluation committee will meet within the weekend to take stock of the dossier.
Yesterday the top management of Vivendi and Cdp met in Milan to take stock of the future of a strategic company for Italy and its 40 employees. But the 11 billion euro non-binding offer of Kkr and the future of the group were also discussed, after the step back by the former CEO Luigi Gubitosi. Various financial sources report that the meeting was positive, there is a common ground and space for Vivendi and Cdp to work together to revive the fortunes of a group that last Friday changed its fourth CEO in six years.
PROFIT TAKEN ON DIASORIN
Among the stocks in the red, Diasorin retraces -3,5% on profit taking after the race following the discovery of the new variant. The diagnostics company said its molecular tests also detect Omicron. Intesa Sanpaolo analysts confirm the current forecast "of 2022 revenues deriving from products related to Covid halving compared to 2021 thanks to the ongoing vaccination campaign".
